Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gil Vicente v AVS Futebol SAD

Kickoff: 2026-04-03 14:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gil Vicente (Local)

Prediction 68.16%1.47fair odd
EV -4.58%
Edge -3.27%
Kelly -11.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.23%68.11%67.97%70.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.371.381.4075.19%72.87%72.46%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AVS Futebol SAD (Visit)

Prediction 11.37%8.79fair odd
EV +6.46%
Edge +0.690%
Kelly +0.772%
Growth +0.050%

assuming max odds 9.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.30%11.45%11.45%13.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.088.009.3614.29%12.38%12.50%10.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.47%4.89fair odd
EV +2.35%
Edge +0.470%
Kelly +0.588%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.57%20.44%20.57%22.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.544.505.0025.00%22.03%22.22%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gil Vicente (Local): 68.16%; AVS Futebol SAD (Visit): 11.37%; Draw: 20.47%. For AVS Futebol SAD (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.79. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.36, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.46%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.36%EV -5.26%E -3.79%K -13.49%G +0.000%9.36I 10.68%NM 10.30%EV +6.46%E +0.690%K +0.772%G +0.050%4.74I 21.10%NM 20.34%EV -2.97%E -0.627%K -0.794%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-03 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.70%EV -5.26%E -3.79%K -13.49%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.53%EV +4.64%E +0.504%K +0.565%G +0.026%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.77%EV +0.305%E +0.062%K +0.078%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-03 14:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.70%EV -5.26%E -3.79%K -13.49%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.53%EV +4.64%E +0.504%K +0.565%G +0.026%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.77%EV +0.305%E +0.062%K +0.078%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-03 14:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.18%EV -9.35%E -7.03%K -28.34%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV +2.36%E +0.262%K +0.295%G +0.007%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.45%EV -1.74%E -0.363%K -0.458%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-03 14:20
Everygame🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.99%E -5.92%K -22.83%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.34%EV +2.36%E +0.262%K +0.295%G +0.007%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 14:19
Coolbet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.98%EV -4.58%E -3.27%K -11.45%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.88%EV -0.482%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-03 14:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.90%EV -5.94%E -4.31%K -15.64%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.87%EV -0.482%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.23%EV -3.79%E -0.806%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-03 14:20
BetUS🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.60%EV -6.63%E -4.84%K -17.91%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.74%EV -0.482%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.66%EV -6.86%E -1.51%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-03 14:25
GTbets🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.65%EV -4.58%E -3.27%K -11.45%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.01%EV -2.19%E -0.254%K -0.288%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.33%EV -9.11%E -2.05%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-03 14:25
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.68%EV -5.94%E -4.31%K -15.64%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.15%EV -3.33%E -0.391%K -0.443%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.17%EV -3.79%E -0.806%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-03 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.38%EV -5.94%E -4.31%K -15.64%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -3.33%E -0.391%K -0.443%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -5.84%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-03 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.38%EV -5.94%E -4.31%K -15.64%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -3.33%E -0.391%K -0.443%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -5.84%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-03 14:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.23%EV -6.63%E -4.84%K -17.91%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -3.33%E -0.391%K -0.443%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-03 14:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.91%EV -6.63%E -4.84%K -17.91%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -3.33%E -0.391%K -0.443%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -9.93%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-03 14:25
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.18%EV -9.35%E -7.03%K -28.34%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -3.33%E -0.391%K -0.443%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -5.84%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-03 14:25
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.87%EV -9.35%E -7.03%K -28.34%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -3.33%E -0.391%K -0.443%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.35%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-03 12:20
Bovada🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -4.58%E -3.27%K -11.45%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.38%EV -6.17%E -0.748%K -0.851%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV -10.95%E -2.52%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-03 14:06
Fanatics🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.67%EV -7.31%E -5.37%K -20.30%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -2.77%E -0.582%K -0.738%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-03 14:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -5.94%E -4.31%K -15.64%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 14:25
Casumo🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -5.94%E -4.31%K -15.64%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 14:20
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -5.94%E -4.31%K -15.64%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 14:20
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -5.94%E -4.31%K -15.64%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 14:20
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -5.94%E -4.31%K -15.64%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 14:18
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -5.94%E -4.31%K -15.64%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 13:44
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -5.94%E -4.31%K -15.64%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 13:45
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.82%EV -9.35%E -7.03%K -28.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +2.35%E +0.470%K +0.588%G +0.014%7.7%2026-04-03 14:25
Bet Right🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.29%EV -5.94%E -4.31%K -15.64%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.93%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-03 14:25
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.30%EV -4.58%E -3.27%K -11.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -14.02%E -3.34%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-03 14:25
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.30%EV -4.58%E -3.27%K -11.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -14.02%E -3.34%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-03 14:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.30%EV -4.58%E -3.27%K -11.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -14.02%E -3.34%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-03 14:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.30%EV -4.58%E -3.27%K -11.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -14.02%E -3.34%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-03 14:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.68%EV -7.99%E -5.92%K -22.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.73%EV -3.79%E -0.806%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-03 14:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.31%E -5.37%K -20.30%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-03 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.31%E -5.37%K -20.30%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-03 14:18
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.31%E -5.37%K -20.30%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-03 13:45
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.31%E -5.37%K -20.30%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-03 13:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.31%E -5.37%K -20.30%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-03 13:45
FanDuel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -9.35%E -7.03%K -28.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -1.74%E -0.363%K -0.458%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-03 14:25
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.38%EV -7.31%E -5.37%K -20.30%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.16%EV -11.36%E -2.62%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-03 14:19
PMU (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.93%EV -8.67%E -6.47%K -25.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -9.93%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-03 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.93%EV -8.67%E -6.47%K -25.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -9.93%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-03 14:18
NetBet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.10%EV -9.35%E -7.03%K -28.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.32%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.58%EV -9.93%E -2.26%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-03 14:20
LeoVegas🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.93%EV -9.35%E -7.03%K -28.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.29%EV -9.01%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.77%EV -10.95%E -2.52%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-03 14:20
NordicBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.19%EV -5.26%E -3.79%K -13.49%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.82%EV -10.15%E -1.28%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -8.91%E -2.00%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-03 14:15
Betsson🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.19%EV -5.26%E -3.79%K -13.49%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.82%EV -10.15%E -1.28%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -8.91%E -2.00%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-03 14:15
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -4.58%E -3.27%K -11.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -14.70%E -1.96%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -1.74%E -0.363%K -0.458%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-03 14:20
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.29%EV -4.58%E -3.27%K -11.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -14.70%E -1.96%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.33%EV -10.95%E -2.52%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-03 14:15
Betway🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.08%EV -5.94%E -4.31%K -15.64%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV -14.70%E -1.96%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 14:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.23%EV -9.35%E -7.03%K -28.34%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.75%EV -14.70%E -1.96%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.02%EV -18.12%E -4.53%K -6.04%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-03 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.67%EV -5.94%E -4.31%K -15.64%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.88%EV -17.54%E -2.42%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.45%EV -1.74%E -0.363%K -0.458%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-03 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -4.58%E -3.27%K -11.45%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -20.39%E -2.91%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -1.74%E -0.363%K -0.458%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-03 14:20
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -4.58%E -3.27%K -11.45%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -20.39%E -2.91%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -2.77%E -0.582%K -0.738%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-03 14:20
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -4.58%E -3.27%K -11.45%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -20.39%E -2.91%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -2.77%E -0.582%K -0.738%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-03 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -4.58%E -3.27%K -11.45%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -20.39%E -2.91%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -2.77%E -0.582%K -0.738%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-03 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -7.31%E -5.37%K -20.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -20.39%E -2.91%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -5.84%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-03 14:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.55%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.95%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.50%0.5%2026-04-03 14:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.55%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.95%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.50%0.5%2026-04-03 14:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.55%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.95%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.50%0.5%2026-04-03 14:20
Matchbook1.41I 70.92%NM 70.55%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.95%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.50%0.5%2026-04-03 14:15
Smarkets1.40I 71.43%NM 70.42%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.86%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.72%1.4%2026-04-03 14:20
Kalshi1.39I 71.94%NM 70.57%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.81%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.62%1.9%2026-04-03 14:15