Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gil Vicente v Alverca

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gil Vicente (Local)

Prediction 54.59%1.83fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -4.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.36%54.71%54.50%56.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.701.701.7761.73%58.99%58.82%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alverca (Visit)

Prediction 18.80%5.32fair odd
EV +3.40%
Edge +0.618%
Kelly +0.756%
Growth +0.026%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.04%18.71%18.81%19.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.085.005.5022.22%19.70%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.61%3.76fair odd
EV -0.197%
Edge -0.053%
Kelly -0.072%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.94%26.57%26.69%28.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.483.453.7532.26%28.77%28.99%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gil Vicente (Local): 54.59%; Alverca (Visit): 18.80%; Draw: 26.61%. For Alverca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.32. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.00%EV -4.48%E -2.56%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.50%EV +3.40%E +0.618%K +0.756%G +0.026%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.50%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-14 17:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.00%EV -4.48%E -2.56%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.50%EV +3.40%E +0.618%K +0.756%G +0.026%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.50%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-14 17:45
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.30%E -4.94%K -12.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +3.40%E +0.618%K +0.756%G +0.026%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 17:25
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.30%E -4.94%K -12.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +3.40%E +0.618%K +0.756%G +0.026%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 17:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.30%E -4.94%K -12.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +3.40%E +0.618%K +0.756%G +0.026%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 17:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.30%E -4.94%K -12.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +3.40%E +0.618%K +0.756%G +0.026%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 17:25
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.30%E -4.94%K -12.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +3.40%E +0.618%K +0.756%G +0.026%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 17:25
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.30%E -4.94%K -12.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +3.40%E +0.618%K +0.756%G +0.026%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 17:25
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.76%EV -8.84%E -5.29%K -13.20%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.25%EV +1.52%E +0.282%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 17:25
TABtouch🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.76%EV -8.84%E -5.29%K -13.20%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.25%EV +1.52%E +0.282%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 17:25
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.69%EV -9.39%E -5.66%K -14.22%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.12%EV +1.52%E +0.282%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 17:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.69%EV -9.39%E -5.66%K -14.22%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.12%EV +1.52%E +0.282%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 17:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.69%EV -9.39%E -5.66%K -14.22%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.12%EV +1.52%E +0.282%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 17:25
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.14%EV -4.48%E -2.56%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.39I 18.55%NM 17.90%EV +1.33%E +0.247%K +0.304%G +0.004%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.95%EV -4.72%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-14 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.66%EV -9.93%E -6.02%K -15.28%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -0.358%E -0.068%K -0.083%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 17:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.66%EV -9.93%E -6.02%K -15.28%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -0.358%E -0.068%K -0.083%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 17:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.74%EV -11.03%E -6.76%K -17.50%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.14%EV -0.358%E -0.068%K -0.083%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.12%EV -10.84%E -3.24%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 17:25
Everygame🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.83%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -1.30%E -0.247%K -0.306%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 17:45
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.57%EV -11.57%E -7.14%K -18.66%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.15%EV -1.30%E -0.247%K -0.306%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -12.17%E -3.69%K -5.29%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-14 17:25
Bovada🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.81%EV -6.66%E -3.89%K -9.38%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.24%E -0.430%K -0.533%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 17:54
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.81%EV -6.66%E -3.89%K -9.38%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.24%E -0.430%K -0.533%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 17:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -8.84%E -5.29%K -13.20%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -2.24%E -0.430%K -0.533%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-14 17:29
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.31%EV -7.75%E -4.59%K -11.23%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -2.24%E -0.430%K -0.533%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 17:35
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.80%EV -3.38%E -1.91%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.13I 19.49%NM 18.91%EV -3.55%E -0.693%K -0.861%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.29%EV -1.79%E -0.486%K -0.667%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-14 17:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.97%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -4.12%E -0.808%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -0.197%E -0.053%K -0.072%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 06:15
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.96%EV -11.57%E -7.14%K -18.66%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.09%EV -4.12%E -0.808%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -1.53%E -0.413%K -0.566%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-14 17:35
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.46%EV -4.48%E -2.56%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%EV -6.00%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 17:50
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.46%EV -4.48%E -2.56%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%EV -6.00%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 17:55
Fanatics🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.20%EV -5.02%E -2.89%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -6.00%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -6.00%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-13 21:24
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -6.00%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 17:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.54%EV -6.66%E -3.89%K -9.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -6.00%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.80%EV -7.38%E -2.12%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 17:45
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -6.00%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 17:35
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -6.00%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 17:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.72%EV -9.39%E -5.66%K -14.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -6.00%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -10.84%E -3.24%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 17:35
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.17%EV -6.11%E -3.55%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.82%EV -6.94%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 17:25
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.17%EV -6.11%E -3.55%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.82%EV -6.94%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 17:25
GTbets🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.05%EV -8.30%E -4.94%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.68%EV -6.94%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.27%EV -6.32%E -1.80%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 17:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.28%EV -6.11%E -3.55%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.05%EV -7.88%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 17:45
Bet Right🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.42%EV -6.66%E -3.89%K -9.38%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.99%EV -7.88%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.32%EV -5.57%E -3.22%K -7.63%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.58%EV -9.76%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-14 17:55
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.21%EV -6.66%E -3.89%K -9.38%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.31%EV -9.76%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-14 17:55
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -9.76%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-14 10:44
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -9.76%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-14 10:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -9.76%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-14 12:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -9.76%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-14 12:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.39%EV -11.03%E -6.76%K -17.50%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.81%EV -9.76%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-14 17:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.35%EV -6.11%E -3.55%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -10.70%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 17:55
Neds🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.35%EV -6.11%E -3.55%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -10.70%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 17:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.11%E -3.55%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.54%EV -10.70%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 17:45
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -10.70%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-14 17:09
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.53%EV -6.11%E -3.55%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.38%EV -10.70%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 17:25
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.26%EV -10.70%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 17:49
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.39%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.11%EV -10.70%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -12.17%E -3.69%K -5.29%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 17:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.53%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -11.64%E -2.48%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.75%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-14 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.82%EV -8.30%E -4.94%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -11.64%E -2.48%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.36%EV -8.84%E -5.29%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.43%EV -15.40%E -3.42%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.21%EV -17.50%E -5.64%K -8.33%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-14 17:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.79I 55.87%NM 55.59%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-03-14 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.45%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.8%2026-03-14 17:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.45%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.8%2026-03-14 17:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.42%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.40%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-03-14 17:55
Smarkets1.78I 56.18%NM 55.59%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.67%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-03-14 17:45
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 56.36%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.44%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.20%3.2%2026-03-14 14:40