La escuela de los momios

Gil Vicente v Alverca

Inicio: 2026-03-14 18:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Gil Vicente (Local)

Predicción 54.59%1.83momio equitativo
EV -3.38%
Ventaja -1.91%
Kelly -4.39%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.77

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.36%54.71%54.50%56.96%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.621.701.701.7761.73%58.99%58.82%56.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Alverca (Visitante)

Predicción 18.80%5.32momio equitativo
EV +3.40%
Ventaja +0.618%
Kelly +0.756%
Crecimiento +0.026%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.04%18.71%18.81%19.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.505.085.005.5022.22%19.70%20.00%18.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.61%3.76momio equitativo
EV -0.197%
Ventaja -0.053%
Kelly -0.072%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.94%26.57%26.69%28.21%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.483.453.7532.26%28.77%28.99%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
LowVig.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 55.00%EV -4.48%E -2.56%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.50%EV +3.40%E +0.618%K +0.756%G +0.026%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.50%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-14 17:45
BetOnline.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 55.00%EV -4.48%E -2.56%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.50%EV +3.40%E +0.618%K +0.756%G +0.026%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.50%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-14 17:45
Casumo1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.30%E -4.94%K -12.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +3.40%E +0.618%K +0.756%G +0.026%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 17:25
Grosvenor1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.30%E -4.94%K -12.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +3.40%E +0.618%K +0.756%G +0.026%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 17:25
ATG (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.30%E -4.94%K -12.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +3.40%E +0.618%K +0.756%G +0.026%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 17:25
Svenska Spel1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.30%E -4.94%K -12.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +3.40%E +0.618%K +0.756%G +0.026%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 17:25
betPARX1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.30%E -4.94%K -12.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +3.40%E +0.618%K +0.756%G +0.026%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 17:25
Bally Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.30%E -4.94%K -12.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +3.40%E +0.618%K +0.756%G +0.026%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 17:25
BetRivers1.67I 59.88%NM 55.76%EV -8.84%E -5.29%K -13.20%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.25%EV +1.52%E +0.282%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 17:25
TABtouch1.67I 59.88%NM 55.76%EV -8.84%E -5.29%K -13.20%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.25%EV +1.52%E +0.282%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 17:25
Unibet1.66I 60.24%NM 55.69%EV -9.39%E -5.66%K -14.22%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.12%EV +1.52%E +0.282%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 17:25
Unibet (NL)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.69%EV -9.39%E -5.66%K -14.22%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.12%EV +1.52%E +0.282%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 17:25
Unibet (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.69%EV -9.39%E -5.66%K -14.22%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.12%EV +1.52%E +0.282%K +0.346%G +0.005%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 17:25
Pinnacle1.75I 57.14%NM 55.14%EV -4.48%E -2.56%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.39I 18.55%NM 17.90%EV +1.33%E +0.247%K +0.304%G +0.004%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.95%EV -4.72%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-14 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.66%EV -9.93%E -6.02%K -15.28%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -0.358%E -0.068%K -0.083%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 17:25
LiveScore Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 55.66%EV -9.93%E -6.02%K -15.28%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -0.358%E -0.068%K -0.083%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 17:25
Virgin Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 55.74%EV -11.03%E -6.76%K -17.50%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.14%EV -0.358%E -0.068%K -0.083%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.12%EV -10.84%E -3.24%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 17:25
Everygame1.70I 58.82%NM 54.83%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -1.30%E -0.247%K -0.306%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 17:45
LeoVegas1.62I 61.73%NM 55.57%EV -11.57%E -7.14%K -18.66%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.15%EV -1.30%E -0.247%K -0.306%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -12.17%E -3.69%K -5.29%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-14 17:25
Bovada1.71I 58.48%NM 54.81%EV -6.66%E -3.89%K -9.38%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.24%E -0.430%K -0.533%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 17:54
BetUS1.71I 58.48%NM 54.81%EV -6.66%E -3.89%K -9.38%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.24%E -0.430%K -0.533%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 17:55
Tipico (DE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.02%EV -8.84%E -5.29%K -13.20%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -2.24%E -0.430%K -0.533%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-14 17:29
FanDuel1.69I 59.17%NM 55.31%EV -7.75%E -4.59%K -11.23%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -2.24%E -0.430%K -0.533%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 17:35
1xBet1.77I 56.50%NM 54.80%EV -3.38%E -1.91%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.13I 19.49%NM 18.91%EV -3.55%E -0.693%K -0.861%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.29%EV -1.79%E -0.486%K -0.667%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-14 17:45
Betclic (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.97%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -4.12%E -0.808%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -0.197%E -0.053%K -0.072%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 06:15
Parions Sport (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.96%EV -11.57%E -7.14%K -18.66%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.09%EV -4.12%E -0.808%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -1.53%E -0.413%K -0.566%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-14 17:35
Coolbet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.46%EV -4.48%E -2.56%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%EV -6.00%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 17:50
Coral1.75I 57.14%NM 54.46%EV -4.48%E -2.56%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%EV -6.00%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 17:55
Fanatics1.74I 57.47%NM 54.20%EV -5.02%E -2.89%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -6.00%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 17:55
Unibet (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -6.00%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-13 21:24
Sky Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -6.00%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 17:35
Marathon Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 54.54%EV -6.66%E -3.89%K -9.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -6.00%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.80%EV -7.38%E -2.12%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 17:45
SportsBet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -6.00%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 17:35
Paddy Power1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -6.00%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 17:35
PMU (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 54.72%EV -9.39%E -5.66%K -14.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -6.00%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -10.84%E -3.24%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 17:35
NordicBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.17%EV -6.11%E -3.55%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.82%EV -6.94%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 17:25
Betsson1.72I 58.14%NM 54.17%EV -6.11%E -3.55%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.82%EV -6.94%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -8.18%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 17:25
GTbets1.68I 59.52%NM 55.05%EV -8.30%E -4.94%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.68%EV -6.94%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.27%EV -6.32%E -1.80%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 17:55
Betr (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.28%EV -6.11%E -3.55%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.05%EV -7.88%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 17:45
Bet Right1.71I 58.48%NM 54.42%EV -6.66%E -3.89%K -9.38%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.99%EV -7.88%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.32%EV -5.57%E -3.22%K -7.63%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.58%EV -9.76%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-14 17:55
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 54.21%EV -6.66%E -3.89%K -9.38%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.31%EV -9.76%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-14 17:55
888sport1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -9.76%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-14 10:44
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -9.76%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-14 10:45
888sport (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -9.76%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-14 12:05
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -9.76%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-14 12:05
NetBet (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 55.39%EV -11.03%E -6.76%K -17.50%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.81%EV -9.76%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-14 17:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.35%EV -6.11%E -3.55%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -10.70%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 17:55
Neds1.72I 58.14%NM 54.35%EV -6.11%E -3.55%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -10.70%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 17:55
PointsBet (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.11%E -3.55%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.54%EV -10.70%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 17:45
Betway1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -10.70%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.85%E -1.96%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-14 17:09
PlayUp1.72I 58.14%NM 53.53%EV -6.11%E -3.55%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.38%EV -10.70%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 17:25
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.26%EV -10.70%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -9.51%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 17:49
BoyleSports1.70I 58.82%NM 53.39%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.11%EV -10.70%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -12.17%E -3.69%K -5.29%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 17:45
Winamax (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.53%EV -7.20%E -4.24%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -11.64%E -2.48%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.75%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-14 17:55
Winamax (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.82%EV -8.30%E -4.94%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -11.64%E -2.48%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -4.19%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 52.36%EV -8.84%E -5.29%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.43%EV -15.40%E -3.42%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.21%EV -17.50%E -5.64%K -8.33%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-14 17:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.79I 55.87%NM 55.59%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-03-14 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.45%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.8%2026-03-14 17:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.45%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.8%2026-03-14 17:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.42%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.40%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-03-14 17:55
Smarkets1.78I 56.18%NM 55.59%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.67%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-03-14 17:45
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 56.36%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.44%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.20%3.2%2026-03-14 14:40