Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gil Vicente v Académico de Viseu

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 19:30 UTC

Final: Gil Vicente 0–1 Académico de Viseu

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gil Vicente (Local)

Prediction 39.13%2.56fair odd
EV +0.181%
Edge +0.071%
Kelly +0.116%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.02%39.22%39.04%41.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.362.382.5645.87%42.39%42.02%39.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Académico de Viseu (Visit)

Prediction 29.30%3.41fair odd
EV +1.07%
Edge +0.311%
Kelly +0.437%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.31%29.19%29.35%30.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.213.203.4533.33%31.13%31.25%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.57%3.17fair odd
EV -0.552%
Edge -0.175%
Kelly -0.257%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.60%31.59%31.61%33.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.912.903.1537.04%34.39%34.48%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gil Vicente (Local): 39.13%; Académico de Viseu (Visit): 29.30%; Draw: 31.57%. For Académico de Viseu (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.41. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.60%EV -6.86%E -2.88%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV +1.07%E +0.311%K +0.437%G +0.005%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -10.02%E -3.52%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 19:20
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.60%EV -6.86%E -2.88%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV +1.07%E +0.311%K +0.437%G +0.005%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -10.02%E -3.52%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 19:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.60%EV -6.86%E -2.88%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV +1.07%E +0.311%K +0.437%G +0.005%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -10.02%E -3.52%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 19:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.60%EV -6.86%E -2.88%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV +1.07%E +0.311%K +0.437%G +0.005%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -10.02%E -3.52%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 19:20
Bally Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.60%EV -6.86%E -2.88%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV +1.07%E +0.311%K +0.437%G +0.005%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -10.02%E -3.52%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 19:20
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.60%EV -6.86%E -2.88%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV +1.07%E +0.311%K +0.437%G +0.005%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -10.02%E -3.52%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 19:20
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.26%EV -13.91%E -6.32%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV +1.07%E +0.311%K +0.437%G +0.005%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -11.60%E -4.14%K -6.45%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 09:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -9.99%E -4.35%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -0.393%E -0.116%K -0.164%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -6.87%E -2.33%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 19:25
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.09%EV -14.69%E -6.74%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -0.393%E -0.116%K -0.164%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -13.18%E -4.79%K -7.53%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 09:05
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -6.08%E -2.53%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -3.32%E -1.01%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -5.29%E -1.76%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 19:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.20%EV -9.99%E -4.35%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -3.32%E -1.01%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -0.552%E -0.175%K -0.257%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-06 19:15
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.80%EV -9.99%E -4.35%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -3.32%E -1.01%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -3.71%E -1.22%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 19:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.99%E -4.35%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -3.32%E -1.01%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -13.18%E -4.79%K -7.53%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 19:20
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -10.78%E -4.73%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.42%EV -3.32%E -1.01%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -13.18%E -4.79%K -7.53%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-06 19:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.44%EV -10.78%E -4.73%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -3.32%E -1.01%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -14.76%E -5.47%K -8.68%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-06 19:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.44%EV -10.78%E -4.73%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -3.32%E -1.01%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -14.76%E -5.47%K -8.68%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-06 19:20
Pinnacle🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.77%EV -2.17%E -0.867%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.46%EV -3.62%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.78%EV -3.71%E -1.22%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-06 19:15
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -11.95%E -5.31%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -4.79%E -1.47%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -2.13%E -0.687%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-06 19:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -11.95%E -5.31%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -4.79%E -1.47%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -2.13%E -0.687%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-06 19:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.28%EV -10.78%E -4.73%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -4.79%E -1.47%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.17%EV -14.76%E -5.47%K -8.68%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 19:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.28%EV -10.78%E -4.73%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -4.79%E -1.47%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.17%EV -14.76%E -5.47%K -8.68%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 19:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.28%EV -10.78%E -4.73%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -4.79%E -1.47%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.17%EV -14.76%E -5.47%K -8.68%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 19:20
GTbets🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -4.91%E -2.02%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.33%EV -5.08%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.57%EV -4.97%E -1.65%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 19:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.10%EV +0.181%E +0.071%K +0.116%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.21%EV -9.71%E -3.39%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 19:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.10%EV +0.181%E +0.071%K +0.116%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.21%EV -9.71%E -3.39%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 19:20
BetUS🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.02%EV +0.181%E +0.071%K +0.116%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.37%EV -10.34%E -3.64%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-06 19:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -6.08%E -2.53%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.29%E -1.76%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 19:05
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -6.08%E -2.53%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -6.87%E -2.33%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 19:05
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -6.08%E -2.53%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.45%E -2.91%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-06 19:05
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -6.08%E -2.53%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.26%EV -9.08%E -3.15%K -4.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-06 19:05
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -13.91%E -6.32%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -2.13%E -0.687%K -1.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 19:15
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.99%E -4.35%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -6.25%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.45%E -2.91%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 18:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.89%EV -6.08%E -2.53%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.35%EV -6.84%E -2.15%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.75%EV -7.18%E -2.44%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 19:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.10%EV -11.17%E -4.92%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.72%EV -7.13%E -2.25%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.18%EV -7.81%E -2.68%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 19:08
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.54%EV -4.12%E -1.68%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.98%EV -7.72%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -5.29%E -1.76%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 19:10
Bovada🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.53%EV -4.91%E -2.02%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -7.72%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -6.87%E -2.33%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 19:10
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.21%EV -5.30%E -2.19%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.35%EV -7.72%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -10.02%E -3.52%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-06 19:25
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.20%EV -8.04%E -3.42%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.25%EV -7.72%E -2.45%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.55%EV -7.81%E -2.68%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 19:04
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.12%E -1.68%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -2.13%E -0.687%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 19:05
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.08%E -2.53%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.29%E -1.76%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 19:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.08%E -2.53%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.29%E -1.76%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 19:05
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.08%E -2.53%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.29%E -1.76%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 19:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.08%E -2.53%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.29%E -1.76%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 19:05
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.08%E -2.53%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.29%E -1.76%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 19:02
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -6.86%E -2.88%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -5.29%E -1.76%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-06 19:05
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.08%E -2.53%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -8.45%E -2.91%K -4.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-06 19:14
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.08%E -2.53%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -8.45%E -2.91%K -4.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-06 19:05
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -6.08%E -2.53%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -9.08%E -3.15%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 19:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -6.08%E -2.53%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -9.08%E -3.15%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 19:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -6.08%E -2.53%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -9.08%E -3.15%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 19:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -9.99%E -4.35%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -9.08%E -3.15%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-06 19:15
NetBet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.99%E -4.35%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -10.02%E -3.52%K -5.42%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-06 19:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -13.91%E -6.32%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -9.18%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -8.45%E -2.91%K -4.44%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-06 19:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.99%E -4.35%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -10.65%E -3.49%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.77%EV -6.87%E -2.33%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 19:05
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -6.86%E -2.88%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -12.11%E -4.04%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -8.45%E -2.91%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 19:20
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -6.86%E -2.88%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -12.11%E -4.04%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -8.45%E -2.91%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 19:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.99%E -4.35%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -12.11%E -4.04%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -8.45%E -2.91%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 19:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.36%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.55%0.7%2026-09-06 19:25
Matchbook2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.36%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.55%0.7%2026-09-06 19:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.27%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45%1.0%2026-09-06 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.27%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.45%1.0%2026-09-06 19:25
Smarkets2.50I 40.00%NM 39.46%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.19%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.35%1.4%2026-09-06 19:20
Kalshi2.50I 40.00%NM 39.18%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.40%2.1%2026-09-06 19:05