The School of Odds
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FC Porto v Arouca

2026-08-23 19:30 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Porto (Local)

Prediction 78.74%1.27fair odd
EV -4.73%
Edge -3.91%
Kelly -22.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.90%78.64%78.74%79.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.181.181.2187.72%84.84%84.75%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arouca (Visit)

Prediction 6.92%14.46fair odd
EV +0.271%
Edge +0.019%
Kelly +0.020%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 14.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.36%6.98%6.89%8.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0013.0313.0014.5010.00%7.67%7.69%6.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.35%6.97fair odd
EV +3.31%
Edge +0.460%
Kelly +0.534%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 7.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.97%14.38%14.37%16.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.606.366.507.2017.86%15.72%15.38%13.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: FC Porto (Local): 78.74%; Arouca (Visit): 6.92%; Draw: 14.35%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.97. 5 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 7.20, producing a positive expected value of +3.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.84%EV -7.88%E -6.73%K -46.35%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -10.10%E -0.777%K -0.842%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.97%EV +3.31%E +0.460%K +0.534%G +0.018%7.1%2026-08-16 20:33
Pinnacle🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.55%EV -6.30%E -5.30%K -33.18%G +0.000%13.30I 7.52%NM 7.12%EV -8.03%E -0.604%K -0.653%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.33%EV +1.88%E +0.264%K +0.308%G +0.006%5.6%2026-08-16 21:00
Fanatics🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -7.09%E -6.01%K -39.40%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -3.19%E -0.228%K -0.245%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.442%E +0.063%K +0.074%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 23:09
Bovada🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -7.09%E -6.01%K -39.40%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -17.02%E -1.42%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV +0.442%E +0.063%K +0.074%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-17 01:28
Betway🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.38%EV -7.09%E -6.01%K -39.40%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -23.93%E -2.18%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV +0.442%E +0.063%K +0.074%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-16 23:00
GTbets🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.84%EV -7.09%E -6.01%K -39.40%G +0.000%14.45I 6.92%NM 6.52%EV -0.074%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%6.91I 14.47%NM 13.63%EV -0.849%E -0.123%K -0.144%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-17 00:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.56%EV -7.88%E -6.73%K -46.35%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV -3.19%E -0.228%K -0.245%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -3.14%E -0.466%K -0.547%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-16 20:49
Coolbet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.58%EV -4.73%E -3.91%K -22.52%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -3.19%E -0.228%K -0.245%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -6.73%E -1.04%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 20:47
Betr (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.72%EV -5.52%E -4.60%K -27.59%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV -3.19%E -0.228%K -0.245%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -6.73%E -1.04%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 01:25
SportsBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.00%EV -7.09%E -6.01%K -39.40%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV -3.19%E -0.228%K -0.245%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -6.73%E -1.04%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 23:04
FanDuel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.00%EV -7.09%E -6.01%K -39.40%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV -3.19%E -0.228%K -0.245%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -6.73%E -1.04%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 23:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.00%EV -7.09%E -6.01%K -39.40%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV -3.19%E -0.228%K -0.245%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -6.73%E -1.04%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 23:04
888sport🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -7.09%E -6.01%K -39.40%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -10.10%E -0.777%K -0.842%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -6.73%E -1.04%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-16 21:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -7.09%E -6.01%K -39.40%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -10.10%E -0.777%K -0.842%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -6.73%E -1.04%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-16 21:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -7.09%E -6.01%K -39.40%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -10.10%E -0.777%K -0.842%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -6.73%E -1.04%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-16 21:19
William Hill🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -7.09%E -6.01%K -39.40%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -10.10%E -0.777%K -0.842%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -6.73%E -1.04%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-16 21:25
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.14%EV -7.88%E -6.73%K -46.35%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV -3.19%E -0.228%K -0.245%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -6.73%E -1.04%K -1.22%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-16 23:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.55%EV -8.67%E -7.47%K -54.17%G +0.000%13.25I 7.55%NM 6.88%EV -8.37%E -0.632%K -0.683%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.58%EV -10.32%E -1.65%K -1.97%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-16 20:48
Bet Right🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -5.52%E -4.60%K -27.59%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -10.10%E -0.777%K -0.842%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -13.91%E -2.32%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-16 23:04
BoyleSports🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -5.52%E -4.60%K -27.59%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -10.10%E -0.777%K -0.842%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -13.91%E -2.32%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-16 20:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -6.30%E -5.30%K -33.18%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.62%EV -3.19%E -0.228%K -0.245%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -13.91%E -2.32%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-16 20:05
betano_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.67%EV -7.09%E -6.01%K -39.40%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -10.10%E -0.777%K -0.842%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -13.91%E -2.32%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-16 20:14
Bet Victor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.67%EV -7.09%E -6.01%K -39.40%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -10.10%E -0.777%K -0.842%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -13.91%E -2.32%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-16 20:14
betfred_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -7.09%E -6.01%K -39.40%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -17.02%E -1.42%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -13.91%E -2.32%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-16 23:08
Unibet (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 77.82%EV -10.24%E -8.98%K -73.15%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.39%EV -17.02%E -1.42%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -13.91%E -2.32%K -2.78%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-16 19:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 76.66%EV -9.45%E -8.22%K -63.03%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.40%EV -27.39%E -2.61%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.94%EV -15.34%E -2.60%K -3.13%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-16 20:49
Sky Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.05%EV -7.88%E -6.73%K -46.35%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.47%EV -27.39%E -2.61%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.47%EV -17.49%E -3.04%K -3.68%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-16 23:04
Betsson🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.47%EV -6.30%E -5.30%K -33.18%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.36%EV +0.271%E +0.019%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.17%EV -18.21%E -3.19%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-16 23:09
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.47%EV -6.30%E -5.30%K -33.18%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.36%EV +0.271%E +0.019%K +0.020%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.17%EV -18.21%E -3.19%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-16 23:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 75.90%EV -10.24%E -8.98%K -73.15%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.65%EV -30.85%E -3.08%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.45%EV -19.65%E -3.51%K -4.27%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-16 20:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.23I 81.30%NM 78.70%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.74%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.56%3.3%2026-08-17 01:29
Smarkets◎1.15I 86.96%NM 76.60%11.49I 8.70%NM 7.67%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.73%13.5%2026-08-16 20:50

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