Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Porto v Arouca

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 19:30 UTC

Final: FC Porto 2–0 Arouca

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Porto (Local)

Prediction 73.47%1.36fair odd
EV -3.75%
Edge -2.86%
Kelly -12.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.82%73.38%73.71%76.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.261.251.3184.03%79.62%80.00%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arouca (Visit)

Prediction 9.49%10.53fair odd
EV +13.93%
Edge +1.16%
Kelly +1.27%
Growth +0.177%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.89%9.47%9.46%10.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5010.2210.0012.0011.76%9.78%10.00%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.03%5.87fair odd
EV +10.72%
Edge +1.65%
Kelly +1.95%
Growth +0.209%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.33%17.15%16.83%19.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.505.556.5020.83%18.20%18.02%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Porto (Local): 73.47%; Arouca (Visit): 9.49%; Draw: 17.03%. For Arouca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.53. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.93%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Sky Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -10.37%E -8.50%K -47.11%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV +10.72%E +1.65%K +1.95%G +0.209%7.4%2026-08-23 18:45
Casumo🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +13.93%E +1.16%K +1.27%G +0.177%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV +2.21%E +0.368%K +0.441%G +0.010%5.6%2026-08-23 19:04
Grosvenor🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +13.93%E +1.16%K +1.27%G +0.177%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV +2.21%E +0.368%K +0.441%G +0.010%5.6%2026-08-23 19:04
Bally Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +13.93%E +1.16%K +1.27%G +0.177%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV +2.21%E +0.368%K +0.441%G +0.010%5.6%2026-08-23 19:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +13.93%E +1.16%K +1.27%G +0.177%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV +2.21%E +0.368%K +0.441%G +0.010%5.6%2026-08-23 19:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +13.93%E +1.16%K +1.27%G +0.177%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV +2.21%E +0.368%K +0.441%G +0.010%5.6%2026-08-23 19:04
betPARX🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +13.93%E +1.16%K +1.27%G +0.177%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV +2.21%E +0.368%K +0.441%G +0.010%5.6%2026-08-23 19:04
SportsBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -9.63%E -7.83%K -41.87%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV +2.21%E +0.368%K +0.441%G +0.010%7.1%2026-08-23 18:45
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV +2.21%E +0.368%K +0.441%G +0.010%7.3%2026-08-23 18:44
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -10.37%E -8.50%K -47.11%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV +2.21%E +0.368%K +0.441%G +0.010%7.7%2026-08-23 18:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.74%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -19.30%E -2.27%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.50%EV +0.502%E +0.085%K +0.103%G +0.001%9.4%2026-08-23 19:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.74%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -19.30%E -2.27%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.50%EV +0.502%E +0.085%K +0.103%G +0.001%9.4%2026-08-23 19:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.93%EV -8.16%E -6.53%K -32.64%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.92%EV -0.307%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.15%EV -1.20%E -0.207%K -0.250%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 19:08
Fanatics🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -6.69%E -5.27%K -24.78%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -2.05%E -0.357%K -0.432%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 19:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.43%EV -11.83%E -9.86%K -59.17%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 8.83%EV -2.68%E -0.262%K -0.290%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.74%EV -2.05%E -0.357%K -0.432%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-23 19:18
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.77%EV -5.96%E -4.65%K -21.27%G +0.000%11.30I 8.85%NM 8.47%EV +7.29%E +0.645%K +0.708%G +0.052%5.71I 17.51%NM 16.76%EV -2.73%E -0.479%K -0.581%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-23 19:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.43%EV -5.96%E -4.65%K -21.27%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.79%EV -8.85%E -0.922%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.78%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 19:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.43%EV -5.96%E -4.65%K -21.27%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.79%EV -8.85%E -0.922%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.78%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 19:19
BetRivers🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.41%EV -11.10%E -9.17%K -52.86%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.29%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 19:04
TABtouch🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.41%EV -11.10%E -9.17%K -52.86%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.29%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 19:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.41%EV -11.10%E -9.17%K -52.86%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.29%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 19:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.56%EV -11.83%E -9.86%K -59.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.24%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.19%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-23 19:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.56%EV -11.83%E -9.86%K -59.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.24%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.19%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-23 19:04
Unibet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.56%EV -11.83%E -9.86%K -59.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.24%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.19%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-23 19:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.44%EV -11.10%E -9.17%K -52.86%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.48%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.08%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-23 19:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.42%EV -12.57%E -10.56%K -66.15%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.55%EV -0.307%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.03%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-23 19:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.42%EV -12.57%E -10.56%K -66.15%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.55%EV -0.307%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.03%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-23 19:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.42%EV -12.57%E -10.56%K -66.15%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.55%EV -0.307%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.03%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-23 19:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.39%EV -6.69%E -5.27%K -24.78%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.79%EV -5.46%E -0.984%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 19:19
Coolbet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.97%EV -5.22%E -4.05%K -18.01%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.68%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.35%EV -6.31%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-23 19:14
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.82%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -6.31%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 19:14
DraftKings🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.34%EV -5.22%E -4.05%K -18.01%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -6.31%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-23 19:20
Bovada🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.97%EV -6.69%E -5.27%K -24.78%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.95%EV -0.307%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -6.31%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 19:14
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -8.16%E -6.53%K -32.64%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -6.31%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 19:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.05%EV -11.83%E -9.86%K -59.17%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.58%EV -0.307%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.37%EV -6.31%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-23 19:15
BetUS🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.41%EV -5.96%E -4.65%K -21.27%G +0.000%10.05I 9.95%NM 9.35%EV -4.58%E -0.456%K -0.506%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.24%EV -7.16%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 19:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.02%EV -10.37%E -8.50%K -47.11%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.26%EV -7.43%E -0.762%K -0.849%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.72%EV -8.01%E -1.48%K -1.82%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-23 19:23
BetMGM🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.88%EV -3.75%E -2.86%K -12.11%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.18%EV -12.18%E -1.32%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -10.57%E -2.01%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 19:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.52%EV -5.96%E -4.65%K -21.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV -10.57%E -2.01%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 19:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.23%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -10.57%E -2.01%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 19:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.84%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -14.55%E -1.62%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -10.57%E -2.01%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 19:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -5.96%E -4.65%K -21.27%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -10.57%E -2.01%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 19:14
Bet Right🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.05%EV -6.69%E -5.27%K -24.78%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -10.57%E -2.01%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 19:14
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.91%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.11%EV -12.18%E -1.32%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -11.42%E -2.20%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-23 19:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.91%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.11%EV -12.18%E -1.32%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -11.42%E -2.20%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-23 19:10
GTbets🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.62%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%10.38I 9.63%NM 8.79%EV -1.45%E -0.139%K -0.154%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 17.59%EV -11.59%E -2.23%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-23 19:20
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -14.83%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 19:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -14.83%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 19:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -14.83%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 19:24
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -14.83%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 19:25
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.75%EV -5.22%E -4.05%K -18.01%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -14.83%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-23 19:04
betano_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -5.22%E -4.05%K -18.01%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -14.55%E -1.62%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -14.83%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-23 19:23
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -8.16%E -6.53%K -32.64%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -14.83%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 19:15
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.53%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.17%EV -17.38%E -3.58%K -4.52%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 19:25
Betsson🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.02%EV -3.75%E -2.86%K -12.11%G +0.000%9.70I 10.31%NM 9.59%EV -7.90%E -0.815%K -0.908%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -18.24%E -3.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 19:25
NordicBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.02%EV -3.75%E -2.86%K -12.11%G +0.000%9.70I 10.31%NM 9.59%EV -7.90%E -0.815%K -0.908%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -18.24%E -3.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 19:24
Bet Victor🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.82%EV -5.22%E -4.05%K -18.01%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV -14.55%E -1.62%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.03%EV -18.24%E -3.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-23 19:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.31I 76.34%NM 75.98%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.05%0.5%2026-08-23 19:25
Matchbook1.31I 76.34%NM 75.58%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.50%1.0%2026-08-23 19:25
Smarkets1.30I 76.92%NM 76.12%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96%1.1%2026-08-23 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.30I 76.92%NM 76.12%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96%1.1%2026-08-23 19:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.30I 76.92%NM 76.12%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96%1.1%2026-08-23 19:20
Kalshi1.28I 78.13%NM 76.50%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.83%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.67%2.1%2026-08-23 19:04