Modello predefinitoMedia interquartile (Lista Curata)

FC Porto v Arouca

2026-08-23 19:30 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Testa a testa

30 bookmaker (13 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: Media interquartile (Lista Curata)

FC Porto (Casa)

Previsione 78.75%1.27quota equa
EV -4.71%
Vantaggio -3.89%
Kelly -22.43%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.21

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
75.90%78.68%78.74%79.84%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
1.141.181.181.2187.72%84.84%84.75%82.64%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Arouca (Trasferta)

Previsione 6.91%14.47quota equa
EV +0.192%
Vantaggio +0.013%
Kelly +0.014%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 14.50

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
6.36%6.93%6.89%8.65%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
10.0013.0713.0014.5010.00%7.65%7.69%6.90%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Pareggio

Previsione 14.34%6.97quota equa
EV +3.23%
Vantaggio +0.449%
Kelly +0.521%
Crescita +0.017%

ipotizzando la quota massima 7.20

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
12.97%14.39%14.37%16.17%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
5.606.366.507.2017.86%15.72%15.38%13.89%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Per Testa a testa, Media interquartile (Lista Curata) stima queste probabilità: FC Porto (Casa): 78.75%; Arouca (Trasferta): 6.91%; Pareggio: 14.34%. Per Pareggio, questa stima equivale a una quota decimale equa di 6.97. 5 bookmaker offrono quote superiori a tale livello; la migliore quota disponibile è 7.20, con un valore atteso positivo del +3.23%.

Quote dei bookmaker (30 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggio ▼MargineAggiornamento
Tipico (DE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.84%EV -7.86%E -6.72%K -46.23%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -10.17%E -0.783%K -0.848%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.97%EV +3.23%E +0.449%K +0.521%G +0.017%7.1%2026-08-16 20:33
Pinnacle🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.55%EV -6.28%E -5.28%K -33.08%G +0.000%13.30I 7.52%NM 7.12%EV -8.10%E -0.609%K -0.659%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.33%EV +1.80%E +0.253%K +0.295%G +0.005%5.6%2026-08-16 21:00
Fanatics🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -7.07%E -5.99%K -39.29%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -3.26%E -0.233%K -0.251%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.363%E +0.052%K +0.061%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 23:09
Betway🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -7.07%E -5.99%K -39.29%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -17.08%E -1.42%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV +0.363%E +0.052%K +0.061%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-17 02:25
Bovada🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -7.07%E -5.99%K -39.29%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -17.08%E -1.42%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV +0.363%E +0.052%K +0.061%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-17 01:28
GTbets🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.84%EV -7.07%E -5.99%K -39.29%G +0.000%14.45I 6.92%NM 6.52%EV -0.153%E -0.011%K -0.011%G +0.000%6.91I 14.47%NM 13.63%EV -0.927%E -0.134%K -0.157%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-17 00:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.56%EV -7.86%E -6.72%K -46.23%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV -3.26%E -0.233%K -0.251%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -3.22%E -0.477%K -0.560%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-16 20:49
Coolbet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.58%EV -4.71%E -3.89%K -22.43%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -3.26%E -0.233%K -0.251%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -6.81%E -1.05%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 20:47
Betr (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.72%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.48%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV -3.26%E -0.233%K -0.251%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -6.81%E -1.05%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 01:25
SportsBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.00%EV -7.07%E -5.99%K -39.29%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV -3.26%E -0.233%K -0.251%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -6.81%E -1.05%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 23:04
FanDuel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.00%EV -7.07%E -5.99%K -39.29%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV -3.26%E -0.233%K -0.251%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -6.81%E -1.05%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 23:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.00%EV -7.07%E -5.99%K -39.29%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV -3.26%E -0.233%K -0.251%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -6.81%E -1.05%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 23:04
888sport🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -7.07%E -5.99%K -39.29%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -10.17%E -0.783%K -0.848%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -6.81%E -1.05%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-16 21:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -7.07%E -5.99%K -39.29%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -10.17%E -0.783%K -0.848%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -6.81%E -1.05%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-16 21:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -7.07%E -5.99%K -39.29%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -10.17%E -0.783%K -0.848%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -6.81%E -1.05%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-16 21:19
William Hill🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -7.07%E -5.99%K -39.29%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -10.17%E -0.783%K -0.848%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -6.81%E -1.05%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-16 21:25
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.14%EV -7.86%E -6.72%K -46.23%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV -3.26%E -0.233%K -0.251%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -6.81%E -1.05%K -1.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-16 23:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.55%EV -8.65%E -7.45%K -54.04%G +0.000%13.25I 7.55%NM 6.88%EV -8.45%E -0.637%K -0.689%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.58%EV -10.39%E -1.66%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-16 20:48
Bet Right🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.48%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -10.17%E -0.783%K -0.848%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -13.97%E -2.33%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-16 23:04
BoyleSports🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.48%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -10.17%E -0.783%K -0.848%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -13.97%E -2.33%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-16 20:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -6.28%E -5.28%K -33.08%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.62%EV -3.26%E -0.233%K -0.251%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -13.97%E -2.33%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-16 20:05
betano_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.67%EV -7.07%E -5.99%K -39.29%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -10.17%E -0.783%K -0.848%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -13.97%E -2.33%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-16 20:14
Bet Victor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.67%EV -7.07%E -5.99%K -39.29%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -10.17%E -0.783%K -0.848%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -13.97%E -2.33%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-16 20:14
betfred_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -7.07%E -5.99%K -39.29%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -17.08%E -1.42%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -13.97%E -2.33%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-16 23:08
Unibet (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 77.82%EV -10.22%E -8.97%K -73.01%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.39%EV -17.08%E -1.42%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -13.97%E -2.33%K -2.79%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-16 19:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 76.66%EV -9.43%E -8.20%K -62.90%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.40%EV -27.45%E -2.61%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.94%EV -15.41%E -2.61%K -3.14%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-16 20:49
Sky Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.05%EV -7.86%E -6.72%K -46.23%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.47%EV -27.45%E -2.61%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.47%EV -17.56%E -3.05%K -3.70%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-16 23:04
Betsson🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.47%EV -6.28%E -5.28%K -33.08%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.36%EV +0.192%E +0.013%K +0.014%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.17%EV -18.28%E -3.21%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-16 23:09
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.47%EV -6.28%E -5.28%K -33.08%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.36%EV +0.192%E +0.013%K +0.014%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.17%EV -18.28%E -3.21%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-16 23:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 75.90%EV -10.22%E -8.97%K -73.01%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.65%EV -30.90%E -3.09%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.45%EV -19.71%E -3.52%K -4.28%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-16 20:49
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (2)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Kalshi1.23I 81.30%NM 78.70%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.74%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.56%3.3%2026-08-17 01:29
Smarkets1.15I 86.96%NM 76.60%11.49I 8.70%NM 7.67%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.73%13.5%2026-08-16 20:50

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