Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

FC Porto v Arouca

Início: 2026-08-23 19:30 UTC

Final: FC Porto 2–0 Arouca

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

57 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

FC Porto (Local)

Previsão 73.47%1.36odd justa
EV -3.75%
Vantagem -2.86%
Kelly -12.11%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.31

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
70.82%73.38%73.71%76.35%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.191.261.251.3184.03%79.62%80.00%76.34%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Arouca (Visitante)

Previsão 9.49%10.53odd justa
EV +13.93%
Vantagem +1.16%
Kelly +1.27%
Crescimento +0.177%

pressupondo odds máximas de 12.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
7.89%9.47%9.46%10.76%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
8.5010.2210.0012.0011.76%9.78%10.00%8.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 17.03%5.87odd justa
EV +10.72%
Vantagem +1.65%
Kelly +1.95%
Crescimento +0.209%

pressupondo odds máximas de 6.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
14.33%17.15%16.83%19.38%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.805.505.556.5020.83%18.20%18.02%15.38%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: FC Porto (Local): 73.47%; Arouca (Visitante): 9.49%; Empate: 17.03%. Para Arouca (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 10.53. 17 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 12.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +13.93%.

Odds das casas de apostas (57 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargemAtualização
Sky Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -10.37%E -8.50%K -47.11%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV +10.72%E +1.65%K +1.95%G +0.209%7.4%2026-08-23 18:45
Casumo🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +13.93%E +1.16%K +1.27%G +0.177%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV +2.21%E +0.368%K +0.441%G +0.010%5.6%2026-08-23 19:04
Grosvenor🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +13.93%E +1.16%K +1.27%G +0.177%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV +2.21%E +0.368%K +0.441%G +0.010%5.6%2026-08-23 19:04
Bally Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +13.93%E +1.16%K +1.27%G +0.177%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV +2.21%E +0.368%K +0.441%G +0.010%5.6%2026-08-23 19:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +13.93%E +1.16%K +1.27%G +0.177%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV +2.21%E +0.368%K +0.441%G +0.010%5.6%2026-08-23 19:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +13.93%E +1.16%K +1.27%G +0.177%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV +2.21%E +0.368%K +0.441%G +0.010%5.6%2026-08-23 19:04
betPARX🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +13.93%E +1.16%K +1.27%G +0.177%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV +2.21%E +0.368%K +0.441%G +0.010%5.6%2026-08-23 19:04
SportsBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -9.63%E -7.83%K -41.87%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV +2.21%E +0.368%K +0.441%G +0.010%7.1%2026-08-23 18:45
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV +2.21%E +0.368%K +0.441%G +0.010%7.3%2026-08-23 18:44
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -10.37%E -8.50%K -47.11%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV +2.21%E +0.368%K +0.441%G +0.010%7.7%2026-08-23 18:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.74%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -19.30%E -2.27%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.50%EV +0.502%E +0.085%K +0.103%G +0.001%9.4%2026-08-23 19:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.74%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -19.30%E -2.27%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.50%EV +0.502%E +0.085%K +0.103%G +0.001%9.4%2026-08-23 19:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.93%EV -8.16%E -6.53%K -32.64%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.92%EV -0.307%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.15%EV -1.20%E -0.207%K -0.250%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 19:08
Fanatics🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -6.69%E -5.27%K -24.78%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -2.05%E -0.357%K -0.432%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 19:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.43%EV -11.83%E -9.86%K -59.17%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 8.83%EV -2.68%E -0.262%K -0.290%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.74%EV -2.05%E -0.357%K -0.432%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-23 19:18
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.77%EV -5.96%E -4.65%K -21.27%G +0.000%11.30I 8.85%NM 8.47%EV +7.29%E +0.645%K +0.708%G +0.052%5.71I 17.51%NM 16.76%EV -2.73%E -0.479%K -0.581%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-23 19:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.43%EV -5.96%E -4.65%K -21.27%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.79%EV -8.85%E -0.922%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.78%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 19:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.43%EV -5.96%E -4.65%K -21.27%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.79%EV -8.85%E -0.922%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.78%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 19:19
BetRivers🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.41%EV -11.10%E -9.17%K -52.86%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.29%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 19:04
TABtouch🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.41%EV -11.10%E -9.17%K -52.86%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.29%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 19:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.41%EV -11.10%E -9.17%K -52.86%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.29%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 19:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.56%EV -11.83%E -9.86%K -59.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.24%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.19%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-23 19:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.56%EV -11.83%E -9.86%K -59.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.24%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.19%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-23 19:04
Unibet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.56%EV -11.83%E -9.86%K -59.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.24%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.19%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-23 19:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.44%EV -11.10%E -9.17%K -52.86%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.48%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.08%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-23 19:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.42%EV -12.57%E -10.56%K -66.15%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.55%EV -0.307%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.03%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-23 19:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.42%EV -12.57%E -10.56%K -66.15%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.55%EV -0.307%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.03%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-23 19:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.42%EV -12.57%E -10.56%K -66.15%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.55%EV -0.307%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.03%EV -4.61%E -0.823%K -1.00%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-23 19:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.39%EV -6.69%E -5.27%K -24.78%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.79%EV -5.46%E -0.984%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 19:19
Coolbet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.97%EV -5.22%E -4.05%K -18.01%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.68%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.35%EV -6.31%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-23 19:14
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.82%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -6.31%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 19:14
DraftKings🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.34%EV -5.22%E -4.05%K -18.01%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -6.31%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-23 19:20
Bovada🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.97%EV -6.69%E -5.27%K -24.78%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.95%EV -0.307%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -6.31%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 19:14
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -8.16%E -6.53%K -32.64%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -6.31%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 19:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.05%EV -11.83%E -9.86%K -59.17%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.58%EV -0.307%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.37%EV -6.31%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-23 19:15
BetUS🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.41%EV -5.96%E -4.65%K -21.27%G +0.000%10.05I 9.95%NM 9.35%EV -4.58%E -0.456%K -0.506%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.24%EV -7.16%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 19:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.02%EV -10.37%E -8.50%K -47.11%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.26%EV -7.43%E -0.762%K -0.849%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.72%EV -8.01%E -1.48%K -1.82%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-23 19:23
BetMGM🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.88%EV -3.75%E -2.86%K -12.11%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.18%EV -12.18%E -1.32%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -10.57%E -2.01%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 19:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.52%EV -5.96%E -4.65%K -21.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV -10.57%E -2.01%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 19:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.23%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -10.57%E -2.01%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 19:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.84%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -14.55%E -1.62%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -10.57%E -2.01%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 19:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -5.96%E -4.65%K -21.27%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -10.57%E -2.01%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 19:14
Bet Right🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.05%EV -6.69%E -5.27%K -24.78%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -10.57%E -2.01%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 19:14
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.91%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.11%EV -12.18%E -1.32%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -11.42%E -2.20%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-23 19:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.91%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.11%EV -12.18%E -1.32%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -11.42%E -2.20%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-23 19:10
GTbets🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.62%EV -8.90%E -7.17%K -37.07%G +0.000%10.38I 9.63%NM 8.79%EV -1.45%E -0.139%K -0.154%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 17.59%EV -11.59%E -2.23%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-23 19:20
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -14.83%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 19:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -14.83%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 19:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -14.83%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 19:24
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -14.83%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 19:25
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.75%EV -5.22%E -4.05%K -18.01%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -14.83%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-23 19:04
betano_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -5.22%E -4.05%K -18.01%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -14.55%E -1.62%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -14.83%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-23 19:23
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -8.16%E -6.53%K -32.64%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -14.83%E -2.97%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 19:15
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.53%EV -4.49%E -3.45%K -14.96%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.17%EV -17.38%E -3.58%K -4.52%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 19:25
Betsson🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.02%EV -3.75%E -2.86%K -12.11%G +0.000%9.70I 10.31%NM 9.59%EV -7.90%E -0.815%K -0.908%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -18.24%E -3.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 19:25
NordicBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.02%EV -3.75%E -2.86%K -12.11%G +0.000%9.70I 10.31%NM 9.59%EV -7.90%E -0.815%K -0.908%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -18.24%E -3.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 19:24
Bet Victor🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.82%EV -5.22%E -4.05%K -18.01%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV -14.55%E -1.62%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.03%EV -18.24%E -3.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-23 19:24
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.98%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.05%0.5%2026-08-23 19:25
Matchbook◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.58%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.50%1.0%2026-08-23 19:25
Smarkets◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.12%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96%1.1%2026-08-23 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.12%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96%1.1%2026-08-23 19:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.12%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96%1.1%2026-08-23 19:20
Kalshi◎1.28I 78.13%NM 76.50%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.83%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.67%2.1%2026-08-23 19:04