Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estoril v Casa Pia

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 20:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estoril (Local)

Prediction 54.95%1.82fair odd
EV -3.84%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -5.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.03%55.06%54.94%57.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.701.701.7561.73%58.89%58.82%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Casa Pia (Visit)

Prediction 20.65%4.84fair odd
EV +2.40%
Edge +0.485%
Kelly +0.607%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 4.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.25%20.56%20.64%21.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.534.504.9623.81%22.08%22.22%20.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.40%4.10fair odd
EV +0.055%
Edge +0.013%
Kelly +0.018%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.19%24.38%24.42%26.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.773.754.1030.30%26.50%26.67%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Estoril (Local): 54.95%; Casa Pia (Visit): 20.65%; Draw: 24.40%. For Casa Pia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.84. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.96, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.72%EV -4.39%E -2.52%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.96I 20.16%NM 19.55%EV +2.40%E +0.485%K +0.607%G +0.015%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.73%EV -4.34%E -1.11%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-07 20:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.60%EV -9.33%E -5.66%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -0.900%E -0.187%K -0.237%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.95%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 20:09
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.05%EV -10.98%E -6.78%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -0.900%E -0.187%K -0.237%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 20:23
LowVig.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.43%EV -2.96%E -0.631%K -0.801%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.42%EV +0.055%E +0.013%K +0.018%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 20:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.43%EV -2.96%E -0.631%K -0.801%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.42%EV +0.055%E +0.013%K +0.018%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 20:09
Betclic (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.34%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.25%EV -2.96%E -0.631%K -0.801%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 20:16
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -2.96%E -0.631%K -0.801%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 20:10
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -2.96%E -0.631%K -0.801%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 20:09
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.50%EV -4.39%E -2.52%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.77%EV -4.00%E -0.860%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.73%EV -0.677%E -0.166%K -0.220%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-07 20:20
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.41%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -5.03%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.99%EV -3.61%E -0.913%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-07 20:09
GTbets🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.48%EV -5.03%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.41%EV -5.80%E -1.50%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 20:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.10%EV -4.39%E -2.52%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -5.03%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-04 09:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.10%EV -4.39%E -2.52%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -5.03%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-04 09:54
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.63%EV -8.78%E -5.29%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -5.03%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-07 20:04
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -8.23%E -4.93%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -5.03%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -12.15%E -3.37%K -4.67%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 20:23
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.92%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.52%EV -6.06%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 20:09
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -3.84%E -2.19%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 07:59
Fanatics🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -4.39%E -2.52%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 16:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -4.94%E -2.85%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 20:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -4.94%E -2.85%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 08:00
BetUS🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.30%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -3.61%E -0.913%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-07 20:19
Everygame🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 20:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 18:49
Neds🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 08:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 07:59
Bet Right🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.47%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 10:19
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:39
Grosvenor🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:39
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:39
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:39
Bally Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:39
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:39
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 20:25
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 20:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 20:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 20:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 10:19
Sky Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -9.33%E -5.66%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -2.39%E -0.596%K -0.795%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-07 20:24
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.10%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.34%EV -10.93%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-04 09:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.10%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.34%EV -10.93%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-04 09:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.10%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.34%EV -10.93%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-04 09:55
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -7.68%E -4.57%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 20:09
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -8.23%E -4.93%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 20:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -10.93%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-04 09:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -10.93%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-04 09:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.62%EV -10.98%E -6.78%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-07 20:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.03%EV -10.98%E -6.78%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.45%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -19.47%E -5.90%K -8.46%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-07 20:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.34%EV -7.68%E -4.57%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -9.16%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -3.61%E -0.913%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 20:09
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.21%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -9.16%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 07:59
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.47%EV -7.68%E -4.57%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -9.16%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 20:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%EV -7.68%E -4.57%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -9.16%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -12.15%E -3.37%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-04 09:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.40%EV -10.43%E -6.40%K -16.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -9.16%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-07 20:19
LeoVegas🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.20%EV -8.78%E -5.29%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -9.16%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.35%EV -13.37%E -3.77%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-07 19:39
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.34%EV -10.60%E -2.45%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 20:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.20%EV -8.78%E -5.29%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -11.22%E -2.61%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-07 20:09
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -8.23%E -4.93%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -13.29%E -3.16%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-07 20:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.50%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-03-07 20:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.50%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-03-07 20:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.50%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-03-07 20:24
Matchbook1.75I 57.14%NM 56.50%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-03-07 20:25
Smarkets1.74I 57.47%NM 56.64%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.32%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%1.5%2026-03-07 20:25
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 56.93%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.58%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.48%2.1%2026-03-07 20:05