L’École des cotes

Estoril v Casa Pia

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-07 20:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Estoril (Local)

Prévision 54.95%1.82cote équitable
EV -3.84%
Avantage -2.19%
Kelly -5.12%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
54.03%55.06%54.94%57.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.621.701.701.7561.73%58.89%58.82%57.14%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Casa Pia (Visiteur)

Prévision 20.65%4.84cote équitable
EV +2.40%
Avantage +0.485%
Kelly +0.607%
Croissance +0.015%

avec la cote maximale 4.96

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
19.25%20.56%20.64%21.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.204.534.504.9623.81%22.08%22.22%20.16%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 24.40%4.10cote équitable
EV +0.055%
Avantage +0.013%
Kelly +0.018%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.19%24.38%24.42%26.52%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.773.754.1030.30%26.50%26.67%24.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet1.74I 57.47%NM 55.72%EV -4.39%E -2.52%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.96I 20.16%NM 19.55%EV +2.40%E +0.485%K +0.607%G +0.015%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.73%EV -4.34%E -1.11%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-07 20:20
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.60%EV -9.33%E -5.66%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -0.900%E -0.187%K -0.237%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.95%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 20:09
FanDuel1.62I 61.73%NM 57.05%EV -10.98%E -6.78%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -0.900%E -0.187%K -0.237%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 20:23
LowVig.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.43%EV -2.96%E -0.631%K -0.801%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.42%EV +0.055%E +0.013%K +0.018%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 20:09
BetOnline.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.43%EV -2.96%E -0.631%K -0.801%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.42%EV +0.055%E +0.013%K +0.018%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 20:09
Betclic (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.34%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.25%EV -2.96%E -0.631%K -0.801%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 20:16
NordicBet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -2.96%E -0.631%K -0.801%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 20:10
Betsson1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -2.96%E -0.631%K -0.801%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 20:09
Pinnacle1.74I 57.47%NM 55.50%EV -4.39%E -2.52%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.77%EV -4.00%E -0.860%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.73%EV -0.677%E -0.166%K -0.220%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-07 20:20
DraftKings1.71I 58.48%NM 55.41%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -5.03%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.99%EV -3.61%E -0.913%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-07 20:09
GTbets1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.48%EV -5.03%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.41%EV -5.80%E -1.50%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 20:15
ATG (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.10%EV -4.39%E -2.52%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -5.03%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-04 09:54
Svenska Spel1.74I 57.47%NM 54.10%EV -4.39%E -2.52%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -5.03%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-04 09:54
SportsBet1.66I 60.24%NM 55.63%EV -8.78%E -5.29%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -5.03%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-07 20:04
Bet Victor1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -8.23%E -4.93%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -5.03%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -12.15%E -3.37%K -4.67%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 20:23
Marathon Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.92%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.52%EV -6.06%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 20:09
Coral1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -3.84%E -2.19%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 07:59
Fanatics1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -4.39%E -2.52%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 16:00
Unibet (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -4.94%E -2.85%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 20:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -4.94%E -2.85%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 08:00
BetUS1.70I 58.82%NM 55.30%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -3.61%E -0.913%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-07 20:19
Everygame1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 20:09
Betr (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 18:49
Neds1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 08:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 07:59
Bet Right1.71I 58.48%NM 54.47%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 10:19
BetRivers1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:39
Grosvenor1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:39
Casumo1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:39
TABtouch1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:39
Bally Bet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:39
betPARX1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:39
888sport1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 20:25
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 20:25
888sport (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 20:25
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 20:25
PointsBet (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 10:19
Sky Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -9.33%E -5.66%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -2.39%E -0.596%K -0.795%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-07 20:24
Unibet1.71I 58.48%NM 54.10%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.34%EV -10.93%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-04 09:55
Unibet (NL)1.71I 58.48%NM 54.10%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.34%EV -10.93%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-04 09:55
Unibet (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 54.10%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.34%EV -10.93%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-04 09:55
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -7.68%E -4.57%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 20:09
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -8.23%E -4.93%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 20:25
LeoVegas (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -10.93%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-04 09:54
LiveScore Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -10.93%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-04 09:55
PMU (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 55.62%EV -10.98%E -6.78%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-07 20:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 54.03%EV -10.98%E -6.78%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.45%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -19.47%E -5.90%K -8.46%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-07 20:25
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.34%EV -7.68%E -4.57%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -9.16%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -3.61%E -0.913%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 20:09
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 54.21%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -9.16%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 07:59
Parions Sport (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.47%EV -7.68%E -4.57%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -9.16%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 20:15
Virgin Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%EV -7.68%E -4.57%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -9.16%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -12.15%E -3.37%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-04 09:55
NetBet (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 55.40%EV -10.43%E -6.40%K -16.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -9.16%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-07 20:19
LeoVegas1.66I 60.24%NM 54.20%EV -8.78%E -5.29%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -9.16%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.35%EV -13.37%E -3.77%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-07 19:39
Betway1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.34%EV -10.60%E -2.45%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 20:10
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.20%EV -8.78%E -5.29%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -11.22%E -2.61%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-07 20:09
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -8.23%E -4.93%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -13.29%E -3.16%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-07 20:09
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.50%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-03-07 20:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.50%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-03-07 20:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.50%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-03-07 20:24
Matchbook1.75I 57.14%NM 56.50%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-03-07 20:25
Smarkets1.74I 57.47%NM 56.64%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.32%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%1.5%2026-03-07 20:25
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 56.93%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.58%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.48%2.1%2026-03-07 20:05