La escuela de los momios

Estoril v Casa Pia

Inicio: 2026-03-07 20:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Estoril (Local)

Predicción 54.95%1.82momio equitativo
EV -3.84%
Ventaja -2.19%
Kelly -5.12%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.03%55.06%54.94%57.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.621.701.701.7561.73%58.89%58.82%57.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Casa Pia (Visitante)

Predicción 20.65%4.84momio equitativo
EV +2.40%
Ventaja +0.485%
Kelly +0.607%
Crecimiento +0.015%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.96

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.25%20.56%20.64%21.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.204.534.504.9623.81%22.08%22.22%20.16%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.40%4.10momio equitativo
EV +0.055%
Ventaja +0.013%
Kelly +0.018%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.19%24.38%24.42%26.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.773.754.1030.30%26.50%26.67%24.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet1.74I 57.47%NM 55.72%EV -4.39%E -2.52%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.96I 20.16%NM 19.55%EV +2.40%E +0.485%K +0.607%G +0.015%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.73%EV -4.34%E -1.11%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-07 20:20
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.60%EV -9.33%E -5.66%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -0.900%E -0.187%K -0.237%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.95%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 20:09
FanDuel1.62I 61.73%NM 57.05%EV -10.98%E -6.78%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -0.900%E -0.187%K -0.237%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 20:23
LowVig.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.43%EV -2.96%E -0.631%K -0.801%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.42%EV +0.055%E +0.013%K +0.018%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 20:09
BetOnline.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.43%EV -2.96%E -0.631%K -0.801%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.42%EV +0.055%E +0.013%K +0.018%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 20:09
Betclic (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.34%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.25%EV -2.96%E -0.631%K -0.801%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 20:16
NordicBet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -2.96%E -0.631%K -0.801%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 20:10
Betsson1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -2.96%E -0.631%K -0.801%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 20:09
Pinnacle1.74I 57.47%NM 55.50%EV -4.39%E -2.52%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.77%EV -4.00%E -0.860%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.73%EV -0.677%E -0.166%K -0.220%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-07 20:20
DraftKings1.71I 58.48%NM 55.41%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -5.03%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.99%EV -3.61%E -0.913%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-07 20:09
GTbets1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.48%EV -5.03%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.41%EV -5.80%E -1.50%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 20:15
ATG (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.10%EV -4.39%E -2.52%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -5.03%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-04 09:54
Svenska Spel1.74I 57.47%NM 54.10%EV -4.39%E -2.52%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -5.03%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-04 09:54
SportsBet1.66I 60.24%NM 55.63%EV -8.78%E -5.29%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -5.03%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-07 20:04
Bet Victor1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -8.23%E -4.93%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -5.03%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -12.15%E -3.37%K -4.67%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 20:23
Marathon Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.92%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.52%EV -6.06%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 20:09
Coral1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -3.84%E -2.19%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 07:59
Fanatics1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -4.39%E -2.52%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 16:00
Unibet (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -4.94%E -2.85%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 20:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%EV -4.94%E -2.85%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 08:00
BetUS1.70I 58.82%NM 55.30%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -3.61%E -0.913%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-07 20:19
Everygame1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 20:09
Betr (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 18:49
Neds1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 08:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 07:59
Bet Right1.71I 58.48%NM 54.47%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 10:19
BetRivers1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:39
Grosvenor1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:39
Casumo1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:39
TABtouch1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:39
Bally Bet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:39
betPARX1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.49%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:39
888sport1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 20:25
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 20:25
888sport (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 20:25
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 20:25
PointsBet (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 10:19
Sky Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -9.33%E -5.66%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -2.39%E -0.596%K -0.795%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-07 20:24
Unibet1.71I 58.48%NM 54.10%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.34%EV -10.93%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-04 09:55
Unibet (NL)1.71I 58.48%NM 54.10%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.34%EV -10.93%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-04 09:55
Unibet (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 54.10%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.34%EV -10.93%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-04 09:55
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -7.68%E -4.57%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 20:09
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -8.23%E -4.93%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 20:25
LeoVegas (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -10.93%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-04 09:54
LiveScore Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -10.93%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-04 09:55
PMU (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 55.62%EV -10.98%E -6.78%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-07 20:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 54.03%EV -10.98%E -6.78%K -17.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.45%EV -7.09%E -1.58%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -19.47%E -5.90%K -8.46%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-07 20:25
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.34%EV -7.68%E -4.57%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -9.16%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -3.61%E -0.913%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 20:09
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 54.21%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -9.16%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 07:59
Parions Sport (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.47%EV -7.68%E -4.57%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -9.16%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 20:15
Virgin Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%EV -7.68%E -4.57%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -9.16%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -12.15%E -3.37%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-04 09:55
NetBet (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 55.40%EV -10.43%E -6.40%K -16.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -9.16%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-07 20:19
LeoVegas1.66I 60.24%NM 54.20%EV -8.78%E -5.29%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -9.16%E -2.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.35%EV -13.37%E -3.77%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-07 19:39
Betway1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.58%E -3.87%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.34%EV -10.60%E -2.45%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 20:10
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.20%EV -8.78%E -5.29%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -11.22%E -2.61%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-07 20:09
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -8.23%E -4.93%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -13.29%E -3.16%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-07 20:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.50%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-03-07 20:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.50%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-03-07 20:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.50%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-03-07 20:24
Matchbook1.75I 57.14%NM 56.50%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-03-07 20:25
Smarkets1.74I 57.47%NM 56.64%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.32%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%1.5%2026-03-07 20:25
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 56.93%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.58%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.48%2.1%2026-03-07 20:05