Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

CF Estrela v Sporting Lisbon

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 19:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CF Estrela (Local)

Prediction 8.77%11.40fair odd
EV +13.99%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.17%
Growth +0.163%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.11%8.83%8.68%11.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.2011.1911.0013.0012.20%8.94%9.09%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sporting Lisbon (Visit)

Prediction 76.68%1.30fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -9.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.41%76.68%76.70%79.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.211.211.2786.21%82.85%82.99%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.55%6.87fair odd
EV +7.94%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +1.24%
Growth +0.098%

assuming max odds 7.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.89%14.49%14.63%16.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.386.257.4218.18%15.68%16.00%13.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CF Estrela (Local): 8.77%; Sporting Lisbon (Visit): 76.68%; Draw: 14.55%. For CF Estrela (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.40. 25 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.99%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV +13.99%E +1.08%K +1.17%G +0.163%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.99%EV -7.21%E -5.96%K -34.34%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.75%EV -6.90%E -1.08%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 19:20
ATG (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV +13.99%E +1.08%K +1.17%G +0.163%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.99%EV -7.21%E -5.96%K -34.34%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.75%EV -6.90%E -1.08%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 19:20
Tipico (DE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV +13.99%E +1.08%K +1.17%G +0.163%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.10%EV -9.51%E -8.06%K -52.85%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.73%EV -1.08%E -0.159%K -0.186%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 18:40
Paddy Power🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV +13.99%E +1.08%K +1.17%G +0.163%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -10.28%E -8.79%K -60.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV +1.83%E +0.261%K +0.305%G +0.006%7.4%2026-04-11 19:25
SportsBet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV +13.99%E +1.08%K +1.17%G +0.163%1.16I 86.21%NM 79.68%EV -11.05%E -9.52%K -69.04%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV +1.83%E +0.261%K +0.305%G +0.006%8.2%2026-04-11 19:25
Casumo🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.64%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 19:20
BetRivers🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.64%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 18:45
Grosvenor🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.64%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 19:20
Bally Bet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.64%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 19:20
betPARX🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.64%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 19:20
TABtouch🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.64%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 18:54
Unibet (SE)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.78%EV -8.75%E -7.35%K -46.03%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.81%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 18:10
Unibet (NL)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.78%EV -8.75%E -7.35%K -46.03%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.81%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 18:10
Unibet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.78%EV -8.75%E -7.35%K -46.03%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.81%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 18:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.33%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.65%EV -9.51%E -8.06%K -52.85%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.02%EV -11.26%E -1.85%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 19:20
LiveScore Bet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.33%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.65%EV -9.51%E -8.06%K -52.85%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.02%EV -11.26%E -1.85%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 19:20
Virgin Bet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.28%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.80%EV -10.28%E -8.79%K -60.47%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.92%EV -11.26%E -1.85%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 19:20
PMU (FR)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.28%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.80%EV -10.28%E -8.79%K -60.47%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.92%EV -11.26%E -1.85%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 19:20
Unibet (FR)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +5.23%E +0.435%K +0.475%G +0.025%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.48%EV -8.75%E -7.35%K -46.03%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.73%EV -1.08%E -0.159%K -0.186%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 19:04
FanDuel🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV +5.23%E +0.435%K +0.475%G +0.025%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.07%EV -10.28%E -8.79%K -60.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV +1.83%E +0.261%K +0.305%G +0.006%8.1%2026-04-11 18:39
LeoVegas🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.49%EV +5.23%E +0.435%K +0.475%G +0.025%1.16I 86.21%NM 77.52%EV -11.05%E -9.52%K -69.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -12.72%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-11 19:20
Pinnacle🎯11.82I 8.46%NM 8.09%EV +3.65%E +0.309%K +0.337%G +0.012%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.02%EV -7.21%E -5.96%K -34.34%G +0.000%7.42I 13.48%NM 12.89%EV +7.94%E +1.07%K +1.24%G +0.098%4.6%2026-04-11 19:20
1xBet🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 8.41%EV +0.841%E +0.073%K +0.080%G +0.001%1.27I 78.74%NM 76.16%EV -2.61%E -2.06%K -9.67%G +0.000%6.27I 15.95%NM 15.43%EV -8.79%E -1.40%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-11 19:25
NordicBet🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 8.13%EV +0.841%E +0.073%K +0.080%G +0.001%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.26%EV -7.21%E -5.96%K -34.34%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.61%EV -6.90%E -1.08%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 16:44
Betsson🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 8.13%EV +0.841%E +0.073%K +0.080%G +0.001%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.26%EV -7.21%E -5.96%K -34.34%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.61%EV -6.90%E -1.08%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 16:44
Coolbet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.72%EV -4.91%E -3.96%K -20.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.64%EV -5.44%E -0.837%K -0.990%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 19:24
DraftKings🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.95%EV -7.21%E -5.96%K -34.34%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +1.83%E +0.261%K +0.305%G +0.006%6.0%2026-04-11 19:19
Everygame🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.09%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV +1.83%E +0.261%K +0.305%G +0.006%6.7%2026-04-11 18:55
PlayUp🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.56%EV -6.45%E -5.28%K -29.30%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 19:15
Unibet (UK)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -5.68%E -4.62%K -24.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -12.72%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 19:24
Bet Right🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -5.68%E -4.62%K -24.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -12.72%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 19:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -6.45%E -5.28%K -29.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -12.72%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 12:30
Sky Bet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -5.44%E -0.837%K -0.990%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 19:25
NetBet (FR)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.25%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.88%EV -9.51%E -8.06%K -52.85%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.87%EV -11.26%E -1.85%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-11 19:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.06%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 75.81%EV -10.28%E -8.79%K -60.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -19.99%E -3.63%K -4.44%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-11 19:25
BetUS🎯10.75I 9.30%NM 8.71%EV -5.74%E -0.534%K -0.588%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.41%EV -7.21%E -5.96%K -34.34%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV -1.81%E -0.268%K -0.314%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 19:25
Betclic (FR)🎯10.75I 9.30%NM 8.70%EV -5.74%E -0.534%K -0.588%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.68%EV -6.45%E -5.28%K -29.30%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.62%EV -6.90%E -1.08%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-11 19:04
Betr (AU)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.92%EV -7.93%E -0.755%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.11%EV -5.68%E -4.62%K -24.69%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.98%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 19:25
Bet Victor🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -7.93%E -0.755%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -12.72%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-11 18:53
Coral🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -12.31%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -4.14%E -3.32%K -16.58%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -5.44%E -0.837%K -0.990%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-07 21:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -12.31%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -4.14%E -3.32%K -16.58%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -5.44%E -0.837%K -0.990%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 19:25
BetMGM🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -12.31%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.47%EV -4.14%E -3.32%K -16.58%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.09%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 19:20
Fanatics🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -12.31%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.06%EV -4.91%E -3.96%K -20.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -5.44%E -0.837%K -0.990%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 19:24
888sport🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -12.31%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.45%E -5.28%K -29.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -12.72%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 19:20
William Hill🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -12.31%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.45%E -5.28%K -29.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -12.72%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 19:20
888sport (SE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -12.31%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.45%E -5.28%K -29.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -12.72%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 19:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -12.31%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.45%E -5.28%K -29.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -12.72%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 19:20
BoyleSports🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -12.31%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -6.45%E -5.28%K -29.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -19.99%E -3.63%K -4.44%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-11 19:25
BetOnline.ag🎯9.80I 10.20%NM 9.43%EV -14.07%E -1.44%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.99%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.59%EV -1.08%E -0.159%K -0.186%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-11 19:20
LowVig.ag🎯9.80I 10.20%NM 9.43%EV -14.07%E -1.44%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.99%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.59%EV -1.08%E -0.159%K -0.186%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-11 19:20
Neds🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -16.70%E -1.76%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.25%EV -4.91%E -3.96%K -20.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 19:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -16.70%E -1.76%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.25%EV -4.91%E -3.96%K -20.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 19:20
Winamax (DE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -16.70%E -1.76%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.20%EV -8.75%E -7.35%K -46.03%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV +1.83%E +0.261%K +0.305%G +0.006%8.8%2026-04-11 18:05
Betway🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -21.08%E -2.34%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.57%EV -6.45%E -5.28%K -29.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -5.44%E -0.837%K -0.990%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 19:24
Winamax (FR)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -21.08%E -2.34%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.57%EV -9.51%E -8.06%K -52.85%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.39%EV -1.81%E -0.268%K -0.314%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-11 19:05
Marathon Bet🎯8.20I 12.20%NM 11.37%EV -28.10%E -3.43%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.60%EV -4.14%E -3.32%K -16.58%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.02%EV -3.26%E -0.490%K -0.577%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 19:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)15.50I 6.45%NM 6.41%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.84%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75%0.6%2026-04-11 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)15.50I 6.45%NM 6.41%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.84%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75%0.6%2026-04-11 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)15.50I 6.45%NM 6.41%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.84%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75%0.6%2026-04-11 19:25
Matchbook15.50I 6.45%NM 6.41%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.84%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75%0.6%2026-04-11 19:25
Kalshi14.29I 7.00%NM 6.93%1.22I 81.97%NM 81.18%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.89%1.0%2026-04-11 19:10
Smarkets14.99I 6.67%NM 6.58%1.22I 81.97%NM 80.79%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.64%1.5%2026-04-11 19:25