La escuela de los momios

CF Estrela v Sporting Lisbon

Inicio: 2026-04-11 19:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

CF Estrela (Local)

Predicción 8.77%11.40momio equitativo
EV +13.99%
Ventaja +1.08%
Kelly +1.17%
Crecimiento +0.163%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 13.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
7.11%8.83%8.68%11.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
8.2011.1911.0013.0012.20%8.94%9.09%7.69%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Sporting Lisbon (Visitante)

Predicción 76.68%1.30momio equitativo
EV -2.61%
Ventaja -2.06%
Kelly -9.67%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.27

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
74.41%76.68%76.70%79.68%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.161.211.211.2786.21%82.85%82.99%78.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 14.55%6.87momio equitativo
EV +7.94%
Ventaja +1.07%
Kelly +1.24%
Crecimiento +0.098%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.42

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.89%14.49%14.63%16.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.506.386.257.4218.18%15.68%16.00%13.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV +13.99%E +1.08%K +1.17%G +0.163%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.99%EV -7.21%E -5.96%K -34.34%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.75%EV -6.90%E -1.08%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 19:20
ATG (SE)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV +13.99%E +1.08%K +1.17%G +0.163%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.99%EV -7.21%E -5.96%K -34.34%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.75%EV -6.90%E -1.08%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 19:20
Tipico (DE)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV +13.99%E +1.08%K +1.17%G +0.163%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.10%EV -9.51%E -8.06%K -52.85%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.73%EV -1.08%E -0.159%K -0.186%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 18:40
Paddy Power13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV +13.99%E +1.08%K +1.17%G +0.163%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -10.28%E -8.79%K -60.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV +1.83%E +0.261%K +0.305%G +0.006%7.4%2026-04-11 19:25
SportsBet13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV +13.99%E +1.08%K +1.17%G +0.163%1.16I 86.21%NM 79.68%EV -11.05%E -9.52%K -69.04%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV +1.83%E +0.261%K +0.305%G +0.006%8.2%2026-04-11 19:25
Casumo12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.64%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 19:20
BetRivers12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.64%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 18:45
Grosvenor12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.64%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 19:20
Bally Bet12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.64%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 19:20
betPARX12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.64%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 19:20
TABtouch12.50I 8.00%NM 7.45%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.64%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 18:54
Unibet (SE)12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.78%EV -8.75%E -7.35%K -46.03%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.81%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 18:10
Unibet (NL)12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.78%EV -8.75%E -7.35%K -46.03%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.81%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 18:10
Unibet12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.78%EV -8.75%E -7.35%K -46.03%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.81%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 18:09
LeoVegas (SE)12.50I 8.00%NM 7.33%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.65%EV -9.51%E -8.06%K -52.85%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.02%EV -11.26%E -1.85%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 19:20
LiveScore Bet12.50I 8.00%NM 7.33%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.65%EV -9.51%E -8.06%K -52.85%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.02%EV -11.26%E -1.85%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 19:20
Virgin Bet12.50I 8.00%NM 7.28%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.80%EV -10.28%E -8.79%K -60.47%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.92%EV -11.26%E -1.85%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 19:20
PMU (FR)12.50I 8.00%NM 7.28%EV +9.61%E +0.769%K +0.836%G +0.080%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.80%EV -10.28%E -8.79%K -60.47%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.92%EV -11.26%E -1.85%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 19:20
Unibet (FR)12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +5.23%E +0.435%K +0.475%G +0.025%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.48%EV -8.75%E -7.35%K -46.03%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.73%EV -1.08%E -0.159%K -0.186%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 19:04
FanDuel12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV +5.23%E +0.435%K +0.475%G +0.025%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.07%EV -10.28%E -8.79%K -60.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV +1.83%E +0.261%K +0.305%G +0.006%8.1%2026-04-11 18:39
LeoVegas12.00I 8.33%NM 7.49%EV +5.23%E +0.435%K +0.475%G +0.025%1.16I 86.21%NM 77.52%EV -11.05%E -9.52%K -69.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -12.72%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-11 19:20
Pinnacle11.82I 8.46%NM 8.09%EV +3.65%E +0.309%K +0.337%G +0.012%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.02%EV -7.21%E -5.96%K -34.34%G +0.000%7.42I 13.48%NM 12.89%EV +7.94%E +1.07%K +1.24%G +0.098%4.6%2026-04-11 19:20
1xBet11.50I 8.70%NM 8.41%EV +0.841%E +0.073%K +0.080%G +0.001%1.27I 78.74%NM 76.16%EV -2.61%E -2.06%K -9.67%G +0.000%6.27I 15.95%NM 15.43%EV -8.79%E -1.40%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-11 19:25
NordicBet11.50I 8.70%NM 8.13%EV +0.841%E +0.073%K +0.080%G +0.001%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.26%EV -7.21%E -5.96%K -34.34%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.61%EV -6.90%E -1.08%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 16:44
Betsson11.50I 8.70%NM 8.13%EV +0.841%E +0.073%K +0.080%G +0.001%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.26%EV -7.21%E -5.96%K -34.34%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.61%EV -6.90%E -1.08%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 16:44
Coolbet11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.72%EV -4.91%E -3.96%K -20.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.64%EV -5.44%E -0.837%K -0.990%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 19:24
DraftKings11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.95%EV -7.21%E -5.96%K -34.34%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +1.83%E +0.261%K +0.305%G +0.006%6.0%2026-04-11 19:19
Everygame11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.09%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV +1.83%E +0.261%K +0.305%G +0.006%6.7%2026-04-11 18:55
PlayUp11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.56%EV -6.45%E -5.28%K -29.30%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 19:15
Unibet (UK)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -5.68%E -4.62%K -24.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -12.72%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 19:24
Bet Right11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -5.68%E -4.62%K -24.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -12.72%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 19:25
PointsBet (AU)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -6.45%E -5.28%K -29.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -12.72%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 12:30
Sky Bet11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -5.44%E -0.837%K -0.990%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 19:25
NetBet (FR)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.25%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.88%EV -9.51%E -8.06%K -52.85%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.87%EV -11.26%E -1.85%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-11 19:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.06%EV -3.54%E -0.322%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 75.81%EV -10.28%E -8.79%K -60.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -19.99%E -3.63%K -4.44%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-11 19:25
BetUS10.75I 9.30%NM 8.71%EV -5.74%E -0.534%K -0.588%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.41%EV -7.21%E -5.96%K -34.34%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV -1.81%E -0.268%K -0.314%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 19:25
Betclic (FR)10.75I 9.30%NM 8.70%EV -5.74%E -0.534%K -0.588%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.68%EV -6.45%E -5.28%K -29.30%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.62%EV -6.90%E -1.08%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-11 19:04
Betr (AU)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.92%EV -7.93%E -0.755%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.11%EV -5.68%E -4.62%K -24.69%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.98%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 19:25
Bet Victor10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -7.93%E -0.755%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -12.72%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-11 18:53
Coral10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -12.31%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -4.14%E -3.32%K -16.58%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -5.44%E -0.837%K -0.990%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-07 21:35
Ladbrokes (UK)10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -12.31%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -4.14%E -3.32%K -16.58%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -5.44%E -0.837%K -0.990%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 19:25
BetMGM10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -12.31%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.47%EV -4.14%E -3.32%K -16.58%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.09%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 19:20
Fanatics10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -12.31%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.06%EV -4.91%E -3.96%K -20.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -5.44%E -0.837%K -0.990%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 19:24
888sport10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -12.31%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.45%E -5.28%K -29.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -12.72%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 19:20
William Hill10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -12.31%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.45%E -5.28%K -29.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -12.72%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 19:20
888sport (SE)10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -12.31%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.45%E -5.28%K -29.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -12.72%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 19:20
Mr Green (SE)10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -12.31%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.45%E -5.28%K -29.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -12.72%E -2.12%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 19:20
BoyleSports10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -12.31%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -6.45%E -5.28%K -29.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -19.99%E -3.63%K -4.44%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-11 19:25
BetOnline.ag9.80I 10.20%NM 9.43%EV -14.07%E -1.44%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.99%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.59%EV -1.08%E -0.159%K -0.186%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-11 19:20
LowVig.ag9.80I 10.20%NM 9.43%EV -14.07%E -1.44%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.99%EV -7.98%E -6.65%K -39.90%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.59%EV -1.08%E -0.159%K -0.186%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-11 19:20
Neds9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -16.70%E -1.76%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.25%EV -4.91%E -3.96%K -20.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 19:20
Ladbrokes (AU)9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -16.70%E -1.76%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.25%EV -4.91%E -3.96%K -20.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -9.08%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 19:20
Winamax (DE)9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -16.70%E -1.76%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.20%EV -8.75%E -7.35%K -46.03%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV +1.83%E +0.261%K +0.305%G +0.006%8.8%2026-04-11 18:05
Betway9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -21.08%E -2.34%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.57%EV -6.45%E -5.28%K -29.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -5.44%E -0.837%K -0.990%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 19:24
Winamax (FR)9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -21.08%E -2.34%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.57%EV -9.51%E -8.06%K -52.85%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.39%EV -1.81%E -0.268%K -0.314%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-11 19:05
Marathon Bet8.20I 12.20%NM 11.37%EV -28.10%E -3.43%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.60%EV -4.14%E -3.32%K -16.58%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.02%EV -3.26%E -0.490%K -0.577%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 19:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)15.50I 6.45%NM 6.41%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.84%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75%0.6%2026-04-11 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)15.50I 6.45%NM 6.41%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.84%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75%0.6%2026-04-11 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)15.50I 6.45%NM 6.41%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.84%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75%0.6%2026-04-11 19:25
Matchbook15.50I 6.45%NM 6.41%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.84%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75%0.6%2026-04-11 19:25
Kalshi14.29I 7.00%NM 6.93%1.22I 81.97%NM 81.18%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.89%1.0%2026-04-11 19:10
Smarkets14.99I 6.67%NM 6.58%1.22I 81.97%NM 80.79%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.64%1.5%2026-04-11 19:25