Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 4.35
assuming max odds 2.02
assuming max odds 3.50
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CF Estrela (Local): 22.91%; Gil Vicente (Visit): 48.67%; Draw: 28.42%. For CF Estrela (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.36. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.35, with an expected value of -0.337%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.86%EV -0.337%E -0.078%K -0.101%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.58%EV -8.50%E -4.52%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -1.96%E -0.568%K -0.800%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-08 15:08 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.37%EV -1.48%E -0.345%K -0.449%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.33%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.29%EV -3.38%E -0.995%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-08 14:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -1.48%E -0.345%K -0.449%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.17%EV -8.98%E -4.80%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-08 14:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -1.48%E -0.345%K -0.449%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.17%EV -8.98%E -4.80%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-08 14:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -1.48%E -0.345%K -0.449%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -9.96%E -5.38%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-08 10:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -1.48%E -0.345%K -0.449%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -9.96%E -5.38%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-08 10:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -1.48%E -0.345%K -0.449%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -9.96%E -5.38%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-08 10:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -1.48%E -0.345%K -0.449%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -9.96%E -5.38%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-08 10:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.81%EV -2.63%E -0.618%K -0.809%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.99%EV -1.68%E -0.833%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 29.20%EV -5.65%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-08 15:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.81%EV -2.63%E -0.618%K -0.809%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.99%EV -1.68%E -0.833%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 29.20%EV -5.65%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-08 15:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.81%EV -2.63%E -0.618%K -0.809%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.99%EV -1.68%E -0.833%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 29.20%EV -5.65%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-08 15:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.81%EV -2.63%E -0.618%K -0.809%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.99%EV -1.68%E -0.833%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 29.20%EV -5.65%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-08 15:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -2.63%E -0.618%K -0.809%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.31%EV -9.96%E -5.38%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-08 14:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -2.63%E -0.618%K -0.809%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.31%EV -9.96%E -5.38%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-08 14:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -2.63%E -0.618%K -0.809%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.37%EV -10.93%E -5.97%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-08 10:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -2.63%E -0.618%K -0.809%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.37%EV -10.93%E -5.97%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-08 10:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -2.63%E -0.618%K -0.809%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.37%EV -10.93%E -5.97%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-08 10:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.23I 23.64%NM 22.83%EV -3.09%E -0.730%K -0.956%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.52%EV -3.14%E -1.58%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.65%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-08 15:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -3.77%E -0.899%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.33%EV -6.06%E -3.14%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -3.38%E -0.995%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 14:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -3.77%E -0.899%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-08 15:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -3.77%E -0.899%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-08 15:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -3.77%E -0.899%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.44%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-08 14:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -3.77%E -0.899%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-08 14:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -3.77%E -0.899%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -10.93%E -5.97%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-08 14:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -3.77%E -0.899%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -10.93%E -5.97%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-08 14:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -3.77%E -0.899%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.30%EV -11.90%E -6.58%K -14.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-08 10:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.19I 23.87%NM 22.48%EV -4.00%E -0.955%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.55%EV -5.58%E -2.87%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-08 15:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -6.07%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.31%EV -5.58%E -2.87%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-08 14:58 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -6.07%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.65%EV -10.44%E -5.68%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -0.540%E -0.154%K -0.216%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-08 14:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -6.07%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.04%EV -7.52%E -3.96%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-08 14:45 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -6.07%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.70%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-08 15:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.63%EV -6.07%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.83%EV -7.52%E -3.96%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-08 15:15 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%EV -6.07%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.84%EV -10.44%E -5.68%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-08 15:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -6.07%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.32%EV -12.88%E -7.19%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-08 14:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-08 15:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.38%E -0.995%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-08 15:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.38%E -0.995%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-02 15:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.38%E -0.995%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-02 15:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.17%EV -7.52%E -3.96%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -3.38%E -0.995%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-08 15:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.97%EV -7.52%E -3.96%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-08 14:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-08 15:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -7.52%E -3.96%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-08 14:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-08 15:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.44%EV -11.42%E -6.27%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -1.96%E -0.568%K -0.800%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-08 15:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.95%EV -8.98%E -4.80%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-08 14:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.79%EV -9.96%E -5.38%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -10.49%E -3.33%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-08 15:14 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.79%EV -9.96%E -5.38%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -10.49%E -3.33%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-08 15:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.43%EV -8.81%E -2.21%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.31%EV -6.06%E -3.14%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-08 15:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -9.50%E -2.41%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.38%EV -3.63%E -1.83%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-08 15:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -9.50%E -2.41%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.38%EV -3.63%E -1.83%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-08 14:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -10.65%E -2.73%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-08 15:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -10.65%E -2.73%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-08 15:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -10.65%E -2.73%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-08 15:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -10.65%E -2.73%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-08 15:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.04%EV -11.79%E -3.06%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-08 15:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -12.94%E -3.40%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-08 15:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.08%EV -14.08%E -3.76%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.08%EV -12.39%E -6.88%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -14.75%E -4.92%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-03-08 15:15 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-03-08 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-03-08 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-03-08 15:19 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.61% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.33% | 0.8% | 2026-03-08 15:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.77% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.52% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.71% | 1.0% | 2026-03-08 15:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.27% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.39% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.33% | 2.3% | 2026-03-08 15:25 |