L’École des cotes

CF Estrela v Gil Vicente

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-08 15:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

CF Estrela (Local)

Prévision 22.91%4.36cote équitable
EV -0.337%
Avantage -0.078%
Kelly -0.101%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.35

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.68%22.92%22.87%24.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.754.114.104.3526.67%24.33%24.39%22.99%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Gil Vicente (Visiteur)

Prévision 48.67%2.05cote équitable
EV -1.68%
Avantage -0.833%
Kelly -1.65%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.02

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
47.38%48.75%48.74%50.65%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.791.901.912.0255.87%52.57%52.36%49.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 28.42%3.52cote équitable
EV -0.540%
Avantage -0.154%
Kelly -0.216%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.61%28.33%28.39%29.20%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.303.303.5033.33%30.33%30.30%28.57%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Betclic (FR)4.35I 22.99%NM 21.86%EV -0.337%E -0.078%K -0.101%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.58%EV -8.50%E -4.52%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -1.96%E -0.568%K -0.800%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 15:08
Fanatics4.30I 23.26%NM 22.37%EV -1.48%E -0.345%K -0.449%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.33%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.29%EV -3.38%E -0.995%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-08 14:45
ATG (SE)4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -1.48%E -0.345%K -0.449%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.17%EV -8.98%E -4.80%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-08 14:45
Svenska Spel4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -1.48%E -0.345%K -0.449%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.17%EV -8.98%E -4.80%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-08 14:45
Grosvenor4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -1.48%E -0.345%K -0.449%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -9.96%E -5.38%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 10:49
Bally Bet4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -1.48%E -0.345%K -0.449%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -9.96%E -5.38%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 10:50
betPARX4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -1.48%E -0.345%K -0.449%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -9.96%E -5.38%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 10:49
Casumo4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -1.48%E -0.345%K -0.449%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -9.96%E -5.38%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 10:50
1xBet4.25I 23.53%NM 22.81%EV -2.63%E -0.618%K -0.809%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.99%EV -1.68%E -0.833%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.20%EV -5.65%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-08 15:19
BetUS4.25I 23.53%NM 22.81%EV -2.63%E -0.618%K -0.809%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.99%EV -1.68%E -0.833%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.20%EV -5.65%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-08 15:04
LowVig.ag4.25I 23.53%NM 22.81%EV -2.63%E -0.618%K -0.809%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.99%EV -1.68%E -0.833%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.20%EV -5.65%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-08 15:05
BetOnline.ag4.25I 23.53%NM 22.81%EV -2.63%E -0.618%K -0.809%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.99%EV -1.68%E -0.833%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.20%EV -5.65%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-08 15:04
BetRivers4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -2.63%E -0.618%K -0.809%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.31%EV -9.96%E -5.38%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-08 14:44
TABtouch4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -2.63%E -0.618%K -0.809%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.31%EV -9.96%E -5.38%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-08 14:45
Unibet4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -2.63%E -0.618%K -0.809%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.37%EV -10.93%E -5.97%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-08 10:49
Unibet (NL)4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -2.63%E -0.618%K -0.809%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.37%EV -10.93%E -5.97%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-08 10:49
Unibet (SE)4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -2.63%E -0.618%K -0.809%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.37%EV -10.93%E -5.97%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-08 10:49
Pinnacle4.23I 23.64%NM 22.83%EV -3.09%E -0.730%K -0.956%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.52%EV -3.14%E -1.58%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.65%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-08 15:15
Coolbet4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -3.77%E -0.899%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.33%EV -6.06%E -3.14%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -3.38%E -0.995%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-08 14:44
Unibet (UK)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -3.77%E -0.899%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 15:00
FanDuel4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -3.77%E -0.899%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 15:14
Coral4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -3.77%E -0.899%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.44%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-08 14:45
BetMGM4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -3.77%E -0.899%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-08 14:45
LeoVegas (SE)4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -3.77%E -0.899%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -10.93%E -5.97%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 14:45
LiveScore Bet4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -3.77%E -0.899%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -10.93%E -5.97%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 14:44
Virgin Bet4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -3.77%E -0.899%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.30%EV -11.90%E -6.58%K -14.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-08 10:49
GTbets4.19I 23.87%NM 22.48%EV -4.00%E -0.955%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.55%EV -5.58%E -2.87%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 15:04
Bovada4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -6.07%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.31%EV -5.58%E -2.87%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 14:58
Winamax (DE)4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -6.07%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.65%EV -10.44%E -5.68%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -0.540%E -0.154%K -0.216%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-08 14:59
Betr (AU)4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -6.07%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.04%EV -7.52%E -3.96%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-08 14:45
Everygame4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -6.07%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.70%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 15:00
SportsBet4.10I 24.39%NM 22.63%EV -6.07%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.83%EV -7.52%E -3.96%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-08 15:15
Parions Sport (FR)4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%EV -6.07%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.84%EV -10.44%E -5.68%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 15:15
LeoVegas4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -6.07%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 50.32%EV -12.88%E -7.19%K -16.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-08 14:44
DraftKings4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-08 15:00
Sky Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.38%E -0.995%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-08 15:14
Neds4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.38%E -0.995%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-02 15:34
Ladbrokes (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.38%E -0.995%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-02 15:35
Tipico (DE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.17%EV -7.52%E -3.96%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -3.38%E -0.995%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-08 15:25
Bet Right4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.97%EV -7.52%E -3.96%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -4.80%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 14:45
Betway4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 15:04
PointsBet (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -7.52%E -3.96%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-08 14:45
Paddy Power4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-08 15:15
Winamax (FR)4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.44%EV -11.42%E -6.27%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -1.96%E -0.568%K -0.800%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-08 15:00
BoyleSports4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.95%EV -8.98%E -4.80%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-08 14:39
PMU (FR)4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.79%EV -9.96%E -5.38%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -10.49%E -3.33%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-08 15:14
NetBet (FR)4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -8.36%E -2.09%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.79%EV -9.96%E -5.38%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -10.49%E -3.33%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-08 15:04
Marathon Bet3.98I 25.13%NM 23.43%EV -8.81%E -2.21%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.31%EV -6.06%E -3.14%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.22%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 15:19
NordicBet3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -9.50%E -2.41%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.38%EV -3.63%E -1.83%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-08 15:00
Betsson3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -9.50%E -2.41%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.38%EV -3.63%E -1.83%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-08 14:59
888sport3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -10.65%E -2.73%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-08 15:15
William Hill3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -10.65%E -2.73%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-08 15:15
888sport (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -10.65%E -2.73%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-08 15:19
Mr Green (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -10.65%E -2.73%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-08 15:19
PlayUp3.85I 25.97%NM 24.04%EV -11.79%E -3.06%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-08 15:00
Bet Victor3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -12.94%E -3.40%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-08 15:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.75I 26.67%NM 23.08%EV -14.08%E -3.76%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.08%EV -12.39%E -6.88%K -15.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -14.75%E -4.92%K -7.37%G +0.000%15.6%2026-03-08 15:15
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%0.8%2026-03-08 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%0.8%2026-03-08 15:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%0.8%2026-03-08 15:19
Matchbook4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.61%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.33%0.8%2026-03-08 15:25
Kalshi4.55I 21.98%NM 21.77%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.52%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.71%1.0%2026-03-08 15:00
Smarkets4.20I 23.81%NM 23.27%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.39%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.33%2.3%2026-03-08 15:25