Language:English
CF Estrela v Famalicão
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
CF Estrela (Local)
Prediction 25.89%3.86fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.428%
Kelly -0.580%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.59%25.91%25.84%26.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.573.603.8031.75%28.04%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Famalicão (Visit)
Prediction 47.42%2.11fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -3.62%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.03
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.31%47.34%47.47%47.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.951.952.0354.95%51.17%51.28%49.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.69%3.75fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -0.785%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.05%26.75%26.69%27.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.443.453.6432.26%29.03%28.99%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CF Estrela (Local): 25.89%; Famalicão (Visit): 47.42%; Draw: 26.69%. For CF Estrela (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.80, with an expected value of -1.62%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -1.62%E -0.428%K -0.580%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -7.52%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -9.26%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-05 16:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.59%EV -1.88%E -0.497%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.77%EV -3.73%E -1.84%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.64%EV -2.86%E -0.785%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.52%EV -3.44%E -0.921%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.83%EV -5.63%E -2.83%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.66%EV -4.73%E -1.32%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-05 07:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -4.21%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -5.15%E -2.58%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-04 22:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -5.51%E -1.51%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.56%EV -6.57%E -3.34%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-05 08:22 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -5.51%E -1.51%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.56%EV -6.57%E -3.34%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-05 22:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -5.51%E -1.51%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.82%EV -7.52%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-05 17:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.61I 27.70%NM 26.23%EV -6.54%E -1.81%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.10%EV -4.68%E -2.33%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.67%EV -5.26%E -1.48%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-04 14:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.15%E -2.58%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.93%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-05 07:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -5.15%E -2.58%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-04 14:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -5.15%E -2.58%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-04 13:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.83%EV -5.15%E -2.58%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -7.93%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-04 14:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.83%EV -5.15%E -2.58%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -7.93%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-04 14:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.52%EV -7.05%E -3.60%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-04 17:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.52%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-04 17:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.52%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-04 16:58 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.52%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-04 17:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.52%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-04 17:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.52%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-05 15:48 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.52%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-04 14:08 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.90%EV -6.10%E -3.08%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -9.26%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-05 12:38 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.90%EV -6.10%E -3.08%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -9.26%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-05 12:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.90%EV -8.47%E -4.39%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-05 08:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.52%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.26%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.52%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.26%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.52%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.26%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.52%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.26%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -9.42%E -4.93%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -9.26%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-05 07:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -8.10%E -2.28%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -6.10%E -3.08%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -7.93%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-03 15:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -8.10%E -2.28%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -6.10%E -3.08%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -7.93%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-03 15:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.39%E -2.68%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.52%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -9.39%E -2.68%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.55%EV -6.10%E -3.08%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.26%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 15:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.39%E -2.68%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.52%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.26%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-04 17:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -9.39%E -2.68%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -9.42%E -4.93%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -9.26%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -10.69%E -3.10%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.31%EV -5.15%E -2.58%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -7.93%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-06 01:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.64%EV -10.69%E -3.10%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 47.56%EV -11.79%E -6.34%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.80%EV -11.93%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-05 07:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -11.98%E -3.52%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -7.52%E -3.86%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -9.26%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-04 06:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -11.98%E -3.52%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -9.42%E -4.93%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -11.93%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-04 17:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.29%EV -11.98%E -3.52%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.98%EV -13.21%E -7.22%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.73%EV -17.27%E -5.57%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-05-04 15:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -14.57%E -4.41%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.11%EV -10.84%E -5.77%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -9.26%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-05 07:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 26.92%EV -18.45%E -5.86%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 46.59%EV -13.69%E -7.52%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.50%EV -14.60%E -4.56%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 17.9% | 2026-05-05 07:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.01% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.63% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.36% | 3.9% | 2026-05-05 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.01% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.63% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.36% | 3.9% | 2026-05-05 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.95% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71% | 5.5% | 2026-05-05 15:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 45.65% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96% | 10.1% | 2026-05-05 15:19 |