La escuela de los momios

Casa Pia v Tondela

Inicio: 2026-05-03 14:30 UTC

Final: Casa Pia 0–1 Tondela

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Casa Pia (Local)

Predicción 40.47%2.47momio equitativo
EV -3.29%
Ventaja -1.38%
Kelly -2.37%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.39

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.05%40.44%40.50%41.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.312.302.3945.45%43.25%43.48%41.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Tondela (Visitante)

Predicción 29.37%3.40momio equitativo
EV -0.439%
Ventaja -0.129%
Kelly -0.184%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.39

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.32%29.44%29.32%31.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.103.103.3934.72%32.22%32.26%29.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.17%3.32momio equitativo
EV -1.96%
Ventaja -0.604%
Kelly -0.872%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.95%30.12%30.18%30.95%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.103.103.2535.71%32.21%32.26%30.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.39I 41.84%NM 40.54%EV -3.29%E -1.38%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.27%EV -2.79%E -0.842%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.19%EV -3.17%E -0.987%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-03 14:05
GTbets2.39I 41.84%NM 40.17%EV -3.29%E -1.38%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.19%EV -6.61%E -2.08%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.63%EV -2.26%E -0.699%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-01 00:00
Casumo2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -3.69%E -1.55%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -11.89%E -3.96%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -3.47%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 13:55
Grosvenor2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -3.69%E -1.55%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -11.89%E -3.96%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -3.47%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 13:55
Bally Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -3.69%E -1.55%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -11.89%E -3.96%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -3.47%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 13:55
betPARX2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -3.69%E -1.55%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -11.89%E -3.96%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -3.47%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 13:55
ATG (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -3.69%E -1.55%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -11.89%E -3.96%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -3.47%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 13:55
Svenska Spel2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -3.69%E -1.55%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -11.89%E -3.96%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -3.47%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 13:55
NordicBet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -3.69%E -1.55%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -10.42%E -3.42%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -8.00%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 14:05
Betsson2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -3.69%E -1.55%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -10.42%E -3.42%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -8.00%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 14:05
1xBet2.37I 42.19%NM 40.95%EV -4.10%E -1.73%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.63%EV -0.439%E -0.129%K -0.184%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.42%EV -3.77%E -1.18%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-03 14:20
BetOnline.ag2.36I 42.37%NM 40.00%EV -4.50%E -1.91%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.05%EV -4.55%E -1.40%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.95%EV -8.00%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 14:05
LowVig.ag2.36I 42.37%NM 40.00%EV -4.50%E -1.91%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.05%EV -4.55%E -1.40%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.95%EV -8.00%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 14:05
BetUS2.36I 42.37%NM 40.00%EV -4.50%E -1.91%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.05%EV -4.55%E -1.40%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.95%EV -8.00%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 14:05
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.69%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.88%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.42%EV -1.96%E -0.604%K -0.872%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-03 12:00
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 40.32%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 14:00
TABtouch2.35I 42.55%NM 39.54%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -11.89%E -3.96%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 13:55
BetRivers2.35I 42.55%NM 39.54%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -11.89%E -3.96%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 13:55
PlayUp2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -11.89%E -3.96%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 14:05
Unibet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -13.36%E -4.53%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 13:55
Unibet (NL)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -13.36%E -4.53%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 13:55
Unibet (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -13.36%E -4.53%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 13:55
Marathon Bet2.33I 42.92%NM 40.01%EV -5.72%E -2.45%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.32%EV -6.61%E -2.08%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.67%EV -8.30%E -2.73%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 14:05
LiveScore Bet2.33I 42.92%NM 39.53%EV -5.72%E -2.45%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -13.36%E -4.53%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 39.53%EV -5.72%E -2.45%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -13.36%E -4.53%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 13:55
Bovada2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -6.12%E -2.64%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.12%EV -5.88%E -1.89%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 14:23
Coral2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -3.47%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 13:40
Unibet (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 14:05
Betclic (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.67%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.96%EV -5.14%E -1.59%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.37%EV -7.09%E -2.30%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 14:05
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -3.47%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 08:31
FanDuel2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 14:10
Ladbrokes (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 13:40
Neds2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 13:40
BetMGM2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 13:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 13:40
Everygame2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 14:10
Bet Right2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 12:00
PointsBet (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 12:00
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 08:15
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 14:09
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 14:10
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 14:10
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 14:10
Virgin Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -14.83%E -5.11%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-03 13:55
PMU (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -14.83%E -5.11%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-03 13:55
LeoVegas2.28I 43.86%NM 39.38%EV -7.74%E -3.39%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.18%EV -15.42%E -5.35%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.44%EV -8.00%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-03 13:55
Fanatics2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -3.08%E -0.934%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 13:40
Tipico (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -3.08%E -0.934%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-01 13:10
Sky Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -3.47%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 14:20
betfred_uk2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 12:00
Winamax (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -10.42%E -3.42%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 14:05
SportsBet2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 14:20
Paddy Power2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 14:10
Bet Victor2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.89%E -3.96%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 14:09
NetBet (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.18%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -11.01%E -3.73%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-03 14:05
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -10.98%E -4.99%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -8.00%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-03 14:05
Winamax (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -10.98%E -4.99%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -11.89%E -3.96%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-03 14:05
BoyleSports2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -10.98%E -4.99%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.96%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-03 10:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 39.22%EV -10.98%E -4.99%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.96%EV -15.42%E -5.35%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.82%EV -15.54%E -5.55%K -8.63%G +0.000%15.9%2026-05-03 14:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.42I 41.32%NM 40.88%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%1.1%2026-05-03 14:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.88%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%1.1%2026-05-03 14:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.88%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%1.1%2026-05-03 14:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.88%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%1.1%2026-05-03 14:09
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 42.10%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.44%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.46%1.9%2026-05-03 14:20
Smarkets2.40I 41.67%NM 40.72%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.74%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.54%2.3%2026-05-03 14:05