Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Braga v CF Estrela

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 17:00 UTC

Final: Braga 2–2 CF Estrela

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Braga (Local)

Prediction 55.70%1.80fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -2.44%
Kelly -5.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.03%55.78%55.59%57.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.661.661.7262.50%60.12%60.24%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CF Estrela (Visit)

Prediction 20.51%4.88fair odd
EV +1.73%
Edge +0.349%
Kelly +0.438%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 4.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.87%20.42%20.64%21.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.154.634.604.9624.10%21.61%21.74%20.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.79%4.20fair odd
EV -0.083%
Edge -0.020%
Kelly -0.026%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.09%23.80%23.76%26.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.873.884.2030.30%25.82%25.81%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Braga (Local): 55.70%; CF Estrela (Visit): 20.51%; Draw: 23.79%. For CF Estrela (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.88. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.96, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.00%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.96I 20.16%NM 19.54%EV +1.73%E +0.349%K +0.438%G +0.008%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.46%EV -1.75%E -0.423%K -0.558%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-16 16:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.35%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV +0.502%E +0.103%K +0.129%G +0.001%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 16:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.35%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV +0.502%E +0.103%K +0.129%G +0.001%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 16:20
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -7.54%E -4.54%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV +0.502%E +0.103%K +0.129%G +0.001%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 16:20
Casumo🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -7.54%E -4.54%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV +0.502%E +0.103%K +0.129%G +0.001%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 16:20
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -7.54%E -4.54%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV +0.502%E +0.103%K +0.129%G +0.001%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 16:20
Bally Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -7.54%E -4.54%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV +0.502%E +0.103%K +0.129%G +0.001%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 16:20
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.43%EV -10.32%E -6.41%K -16.92%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.87%EV +0.502%E +0.103%K +0.129%G +0.001%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 16:55
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.76%EV -5.87%E -3.47%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.90%EV -1.14%E -0.236%K -0.298%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.34%EV -2.22%E -0.541%K -0.715%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-16 16:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.72%EV -9.77%E -6.03%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -1.55%E -0.323%K -0.408%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -2.46%E -0.600%K -0.794%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 16:50
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.24%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -1.55%E -0.323%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 16:40
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.24%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -1.55%E -0.323%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 16:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.21%EV -8.65%E -5.28%K -13.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -1.55%E -0.323%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-16 16:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.21%EV -8.65%E -5.28%K -13.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -1.55%E -0.323%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-16 16:20
Unibet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.21%EV -8.65%E -5.28%K -13.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -1.55%E -0.323%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-16 16:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.36%EV -9.21%E -5.65%K -14.62%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -1.55%E -0.323%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 16:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.36%EV -9.21%E -5.65%K -14.62%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -1.55%E -0.323%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 16:20
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -5.87%E -3.47%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV -2.57%E -0.542%K -0.686%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-16 16:10
BetUS🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.67%EV -7.54%E -4.54%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -2.57%E -0.542%K -0.686%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 16:55
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.99%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.80%EV -2.57%E -0.542%K -0.686%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.22%EV -3.65%E -0.902%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 16:52
SportsBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -2.57%E -0.542%K -0.686%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:50
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -2.57%E -0.542%K -0.686%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:50
Everygame🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -2.57%E -0.542%K -0.686%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.21%EV -9.77%E -6.03%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -2.57%E -0.542%K -0.686%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -11.98%E -3.24%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 16:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.21%EV -9.77%E -6.03%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -2.57%E -0.542%K -0.686%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -11.98%E -3.24%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 16:40
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.22%EV -10.88%E -6.80%K -18.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.14%EV -3.60%E -0.766%K -0.973%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.64%EV -13.17%E -3.61%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 16:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.52%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.05%EV -4.63%E -0.995%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.43%EV -5.32%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 16:55
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.72%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.59%EV -5.65%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 16:55
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -5.87%E -3.47%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -5.65%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 16:45
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.48%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -5.65%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.48%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -5.65%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.48%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -5.65%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 16:55
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -5.65%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.71%EV -11.98%E -3.24%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-16 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%EV -4.20%E -2.44%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 16:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%EV -4.20%E -2.44%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 16:55
Coolbet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%EV -4.20%E -2.44%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 13:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 13:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:55
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:55
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.28%EV -5.87%E -3.47%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 16:53
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 13:45
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.26%EV -6.42%E -3.82%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 16:55
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.26%EV -6.42%E -3.82%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 13:45
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.28%EV -9.77%E -6.03%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -0.083%E -0.020%K -0.026%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 16:50
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 13:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.13%EV -10.32%E -6.41%K -16.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 16:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.03%EV -9.77%E -6.03%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.45%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -21.49%E -6.51%K -9.34%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-16 16:50
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -6.42%E -3.82%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.94%EV -8.73%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 16:55
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -6.42%E -3.82%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.94%EV -8.73%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 16:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.75%E -2.22%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.32%EV -5.32%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 16:50
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -9.75%E -2.22%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 16:40
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.34%EV -11.19%E -2.58%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 16:39
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.54%EV -9.77%E -6.03%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -11.19%E -2.58%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-16 16:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.36%EV -7.54%E -4.54%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -11.80%E -2.75%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.27%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 16:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.22%EV -8.65%E -5.28%K -13.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -13.86%E -3.30%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.22%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-16 16:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.23%EV -9.21%E -5.65%K -14.62%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.69%EV -14.88%E -3.59%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.08%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-16 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.53%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.70%0.5%2026-05-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.53%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.70%0.5%2026-05-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.53%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.70%0.5%2026-05-16 16:55
Matchbook1.73I 57.80%NM 57.53%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.70%0.5%2026-05-16 16:55
Smarkets1.72I 58.14%NM 57.67%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.62%0.8%2026-05-16 16:55
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 57.92%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.58%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.50%2.2%2026-05-16 16:45