La escuela de los momios

Braga v CF Estrela

Inicio: 2026-05-16 17:00 UTC

Final: Braga 2–2 CF Estrela

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Braga (Local)

Predicción 55.70%1.80momio equitativo
EV -4.20%
Ventaja -2.44%
Kelly -5.83%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.72

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.03%55.78%55.59%57.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.601.661.661.7262.50%60.12%60.24%58.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

CF Estrela (Visitante)

Predicción 20.51%4.88momio equitativo
EV +1.73%
Ventaja +0.349%
Kelly +0.438%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.96

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.87%20.42%20.64%21.69%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.154.634.604.9624.10%21.61%21.74%20.16%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.79%4.20momio equitativo
EV -0.083%
Ventaja -0.020%
Kelly -0.026%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.09%23.80%23.76%26.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.873.884.2030.30%25.82%25.81%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet1.70I 58.82%NM 57.00%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.96I 20.16%NM 19.54%EV +1.73%E +0.349%K +0.438%G +0.008%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.46%EV -1.75%E -0.423%K -0.558%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-16 16:55
ATG (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.35%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV +0.502%E +0.103%K +0.129%G +0.001%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 16:20
Svenska Spel1.67I 59.88%NM 56.35%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV +0.502%E +0.103%K +0.129%G +0.001%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 16:20
betPARX1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -7.54%E -4.54%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV +0.502%E +0.103%K +0.129%G +0.001%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 16:20
Casumo1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -7.54%E -4.54%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV +0.502%E +0.103%K +0.129%G +0.001%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 16:20
Grosvenor1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -7.54%E -4.54%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV +0.502%E +0.103%K +0.129%G +0.001%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 16:20
Bally Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -7.54%E -4.54%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV +0.502%E +0.103%K +0.129%G +0.001%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 16:20
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 57.43%EV -10.32%E -6.41%K -16.92%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.87%EV +0.502%E +0.103%K +0.129%G +0.001%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 16:55
Pinnacle1.69I 59.17%NM 56.76%EV -5.87%E -3.47%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.90%EV -1.14%E -0.236%K -0.298%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.34%EV -2.22%E -0.541%K -0.715%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-16 16:50
Tipico (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.72%EV -9.77%E -6.03%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -1.55%E -0.323%K -0.408%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -2.46%E -0.600%K -0.794%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 16:50
BetRivers1.65I 60.61%NM 56.24%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -1.55%E -0.323%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 16:40
TABtouch1.65I 60.61%NM 56.24%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -1.55%E -0.323%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 16:40
Unibet (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.21%EV -8.65%E -5.28%K -13.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -1.55%E -0.323%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-16 16:20
Unibet (NL)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.21%EV -8.65%E -5.28%K -13.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -1.55%E -0.323%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-16 16:20
Unibet1.64I 60.98%NM 56.21%EV -8.65%E -5.28%K -13.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -1.55%E -0.323%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-16 16:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 56.36%EV -9.21%E -5.65%K -14.62%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -1.55%E -0.323%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 16:20
LiveScore Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 56.36%EV -9.21%E -5.65%K -14.62%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -1.55%E -0.323%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 16:20
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -5.87%E -3.47%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV -2.57%E -0.542%K -0.686%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-16 16:10
BetUS1.66I 60.24%NM 56.67%EV -7.54%E -4.54%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -2.57%E -0.542%K -0.686%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 16:55
Bovada1.65I 60.61%NM 56.99%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.80%EV -2.57%E -0.542%K -0.686%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.22%EV -3.65%E -0.902%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 16:52
SportsBet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -2.57%E -0.542%K -0.686%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:50
Paddy Power1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -2.57%E -0.542%K -0.686%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:50
Everygame1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -2.57%E -0.542%K -0.686%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:55
PMU (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.21%EV -9.77%E -6.03%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -2.57%E -0.542%K -0.686%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -11.98%E -3.24%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 16:40
Virgin Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 56.21%EV -9.77%E -6.03%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -2.57%E -0.542%K -0.686%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -11.98%E -3.24%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 16:40
LeoVegas1.60I 62.50%NM 56.22%EV -10.88%E -6.80%K -18.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.14%EV -3.60%E -0.766%K -0.973%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.64%EV -13.17%E -3.61%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 16:20
Marathon Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.52%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.05%EV -4.63%E -0.995%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.43%EV -5.32%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 16:55
Coral1.70I 58.82%NM 55.72%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.59%EV -5.65%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 16:55
DraftKings1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -5.87%E -3.47%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -5.65%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 16:45
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 55.48%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -5.65%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 16:55
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.48%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -5.65%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 16:55
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.48%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -5.65%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 16:55
Bet Victor1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -5.65%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.71%EV -11.98%E -3.24%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-16 16:55
LowVig.ag1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%EV -4.20%E -2.44%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 16:55
BetOnline.ag1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%EV -4.20%E -2.44%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 16:55
Coolbet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%EV -4.20%E -2.44%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 13:45
Unibet (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:50
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 13:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:55
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:55
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 55.28%EV -5.87%E -3.47%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 16:53
PointsBet (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 13:45
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 55.26%EV -6.42%E -3.82%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 16:55
Bet Right1.68I 59.52%NM 55.26%EV -6.42%E -3.82%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 13:45
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.28%EV -9.77%E -6.03%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -0.083%E -0.020%K -0.026%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 16:50
betfred_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 13:45
NetBet (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.13%EV -10.32%E -6.41%K -16.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 16:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 54.03%EV -9.77%E -6.03%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.45%EV -7.70%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -21.49%E -6.51%K -9.34%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-16 16:50
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -6.42%E -3.82%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.94%EV -8.73%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 16:55
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -6.42%E -3.82%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.94%EV -8.73%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 16:55
Betclic (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.75%E -2.22%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.32%EV -5.32%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 16:50
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -9.75%E -2.22%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 16:40
Betway1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.34%EV -11.19%E -2.58%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 16:39
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 55.54%EV -9.77%E -6.03%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -11.19%E -2.58%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-16 16:45
Winamax (DE)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.36%EV -7.54%E -4.54%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -11.80%E -2.75%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.27%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 16:50
Winamax (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.22%EV -8.65%E -5.28%K -13.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -13.86%E -3.30%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.22%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-16 16:50
Unibet (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 55.23%EV -9.21%E -5.65%K -14.62%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.69%EV -14.88%E -3.59%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.08%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-16 16:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.53%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.70%0.5%2026-05-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.53%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.70%0.5%2026-05-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.53%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.70%0.5%2026-05-16 16:55
Matchbook1.73I 57.80%NM 57.53%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.70%0.5%2026-05-16 16:55
Smarkets1.72I 58.14%NM 57.67%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.62%0.8%2026-05-16 16:55
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 57.92%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.58%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.50%2.2%2026-05-16 16:45