Szkoła Kursów

Benfica v Nacional

Początek: 2026-04-12 17:00 UTC

Wynik końcowy: Benfica 2–0 Nacional

Linia zamknięcia — prawdopodobieństwa i wartość oczekiwana obliczone przez wybrany model na podstawie ostatnich kursów zarejestrowanych przed rozpoczęciem. Spotkanie już trwa, więc nie są to dane bieżące. Oceń wiarygodność prognoz prawdopodobieństwa każdego modelu na tle wyników wszystkich rozstrzygniętych spotkań →

Zwycięzca spotkania

55 bukmacherów (19 w analizie )

Szacowane prawdopodobieństwo każdego wyniku według modelu: IQM

Benfica (Gospodarze)

Prognoza 81.86%1.22kurs godziwy
EV -3.40%
Przewaga -2.88%
Kelly -18.89%
Wzrost +0.000%

przy maksymalnym kursie 1.18

Rozkład oszacowań prawdopodobieństwa bukmacherów
78.12%81.77%81.72%84.15%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.
Rozkład kursów
1.091.141.141.1891.74%87.92%87.72%84.75%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.

Nacional (Goście)

Prognoza 6.33%15.80kurs godziwy
EV +9.85%
Przewaga +0.568%
Kelly +0.602%
Wzrost +0.059%

przy maksymalnym kursie 17.36

Rozkład oszacowań prawdopodobieństwa bukmacherów
5.38%6.37%6.27%8.14%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.
Rozkład kursów
11.5014.7415.0017.368.70%6.78%6.67%5.76%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.

Remis

Prognoza 11.81%8.47kurs godziwy
EV +9.69%
Przewaga +1.04%
Kelly +1.17%
Wzrost +0.113%

przy maksymalnym kursie 9.29

Rozkład oszacowań prawdopodobieństwa bukmacherów
10.15%11.86%12.01%14.97%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.
Rozkład kursów
6.007.827.509.2916.67%12.78%13.33%10.76%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.

Kursy bukmacherskie (55 bukmacherów)

Nie jesteśmy powiązani z żadnym bukmacherem i nie czerpiemy korzyści z zawieranych u niego zakładów.

BukmacherGospodarzeGościeRemis ▼MarżaAktualizacja
Pinnacle1.14I 87.72%NM 84.15%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%17.36I 5.76%NM 5.53%EV +9.85%E +0.568%K +0.602%G +0.059%9.29I 10.76%NM 10.33%EV +9.69%E +1.04%K +1.17%G +0.113%4.2%2026-04-12 16:55
Fanatics1.13I 88.50%NM 83.60%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.90%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV +6.27%E +0.697%K +0.784%G +0.049%5.9%2026-04-12 15:30
Unibet (FR)1.13I 88.50%NM 82.90%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV -11.41%E -0.815%K -0.878%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV +6.27%E +0.697%K +0.784%G +0.049%6.7%2026-04-12 16:35
Tipico (DE)1.12I 89.29%NM 83.40%EV -8.31%E -7.42%K -69.27%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +6.27%E +0.697%K +0.784%G +0.049%7.1%2026-04-12 09:25
Winamax (DE)1.10I 90.91%NM 83.28%EV -9.95%E -9.04%K -99.49%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.54%EV -11.41%E -0.815%K -0.878%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.18%EV +6.27%E +0.697%K +0.784%G +0.049%9.2%2026-04-12 16:55
Winamax (FR)1.10I 90.91%NM 83.08%EV -9.95%E -9.04%K -99.49%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.77%EV -14.57%E -1.08%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV +6.27%E +0.697%K +0.784%G +0.049%9.4%2026-04-12 16:54
DraftKings1.14I 87.72%NM 82.64%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.08%EV +0.365%E +0.043%K +0.049%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 16:30
BetUS1.14I 87.72%NM 82.64%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.08%EV +0.365%E +0.043%K +0.049%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 16:54
Everygame1.12I 89.29%NM 82.89%EV -8.31%E -7.42%K -69.27%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV +0.365%E +0.043%K +0.049%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 16:55
SportsBet1.11I 90.09%NM 83.62%EV -9.13%E -8.23%K -83.01%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV +7.58%E +0.446%K +0.474%G +0.036%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV +0.365%E +0.043%K +0.049%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 16:05
Paddy Power1.11I 90.09%NM 83.62%EV -9.13%E -8.23%K -83.01%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV +7.58%E +0.446%K +0.474%G +0.036%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV +0.365%E +0.043%K +0.049%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 16:04
LowVig.ag1.13I 88.50%NM 81.39%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -24.06%E -2.01%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.95%EV -0.816%E -0.097%K -0.110%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-12 16:54
BetOnline.ag1.13I 88.50%NM 81.39%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -24.06%E -2.01%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.95%EV -0.816%E -0.097%K -0.110%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-12 16:55
Marathon Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 82.15%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%14.25I 7.02%NM 6.57%EV -9.83%E -0.690%K -0.742%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.28%EV -2.00%E -0.241%K -0.274%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 16:54
1xBet1.18I 84.75%NM 81.99%EV -3.40%E -2.88%K -18.89%G +0.000%16.10I 6.21%NM 6.01%EV +1.88%E +0.117%K +0.125%G +0.002%8.06I 12.41%NM 12.00%EV -4.83%E -0.599%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-12 16:54
Coral1.18I 84.75%NM 80.76%EV -3.40%E -2.88%K -18.89%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.33%EV -17.74%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -5.54%E -0.692%K -0.791%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 16:55
Svenska Spel1.15I 86.96%NM 82.26%EV -5.86%E -5.09%K -39.04%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -5.54%E -0.692%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 16:55
ATG (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.26%EV -5.86%E -5.09%K -39.04%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -5.54%E -0.692%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 16:55
Sky Bet1.13I 88.50%NM 82.20%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -5.54%E -0.692%K -0.791%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 16:05
FanDuel1.10I 90.91%NM 83.18%EV -9.95%E -9.04%K -99.49%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV +7.58%E +0.446%K +0.474%G +0.036%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -5.54%E -0.692%K -0.791%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-12 16:03
NetBet (FR)1.09I 91.74%NM 83.03%EV -10.77%E -9.88%K -119.64%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -5.54%E -0.692%K -0.791%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-12 16:55
Coolbet1.17I 85.47%NM 81.37%EV -4.22%E -3.61%K -24.82%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.35%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.28%EV -8.49%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 11:50
Betclic (FR)1.13I 88.50%NM 82.55%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%17.25I 5.80%NM 5.41%EV +9.16%E +0.531%K +0.564%G +0.052%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.04%EV -8.49%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 16:55
PlayUp1.14I 87.72%NM 81.76%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.03%EV -8.49%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 16:35
BetMGM1.18I 84.75%NM 79.89%EV -3.40%E -2.88%K -18.89%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -20.90%E -1.67%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.18I 84.75%NM 79.64%EV -3.40%E -2.88%K -18.89%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -24.06%E -2.01%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 16:55
Neds1.18I 84.75%NM 79.37%EV -3.40%E -2.88%K -18.89%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -27.23%E -2.37%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 16:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.18I 84.75%NM 79.37%EV -3.40%E -2.88%K -18.89%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -27.23%E -2.37%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 16:55
Bet Right1.16I 86.21%NM 80.39%EV -5.04%E -4.34%K -31.48%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.17%EV -17.74%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 11:49
Grosvenor1.14I 87.72%NM 81.75%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 13:00
Casumo1.14I 87.72%NM 81.75%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 13:00
Bally Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 81.75%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 13:01
betPARX1.14I 87.72%NM 81.75%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 13:00
888sport1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -5.86%E -5.09%K -39.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -17.74%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 16:30
Mr Green (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -5.86%E -5.09%K -39.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -17.74%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 16:30
888sport (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -5.86%E -5.09%K -39.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -17.74%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 16:30
William Hill1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -5.86%E -5.09%K -39.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -17.74%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 16:34
PointsBet (AU)1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -5.86%E -5.09%K -39.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -17.74%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 05:09
Unibet1.13I 88.50%NM 81.88%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 13:00
Unibet (SE)1.13I 88.50%NM 81.88%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 13:01
Unibet (NL)1.13I 88.50%NM 81.88%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 13:00
BetRivers1.13I 88.50%NM 81.88%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 13:01
TABtouch1.13I 88.50%NM 81.88%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 13:01
LeoVegas (SE)1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -8.31%E -7.42%K -69.27%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-12 16:55
LiveScore Bet1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -8.31%E -7.42%K -69.27%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-12 16:55
PMU (FR)1.11I 90.09%NM 81.83%EV -9.13%E -8.23%K -83.01%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 16:53
Virgin Bet1.11I 90.09%NM 81.83%EV -9.13%E -8.23%K -83.01%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 16:55
LeoVegas1.10I 90.91%NM 81.97%EV -9.95%E -9.04%K -99.49%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.01%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-12 16:53
NordicBet1.14I 87.72%NM 81.76%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.65%EV +4.41%E +0.267%K +0.285%G +0.013%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.59%EV -12.62%E -1.71%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 16:54
Betsson1.14I 87.72%NM 81.76%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.65%EV +4.41%E +0.267%K +0.285%G +0.013%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.59%EV -12.62%E -1.71%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 16:55
Betr (AU)1.16I 86.21%NM 80.46%EV -5.04%E -4.34%K -31.48%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.67%EV -11.41%E -0.815%K -0.878%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.87%EV -14.39%E -1.99%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 11:49
Betway1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -4.22%E -3.61%K -24.82%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -17.74%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -17.35%E -2.48%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 12:35
Bet Victor1.13I 88.50%NM 80.86%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -17.35%E -2.48%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-12 16:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.11I 90.09%NM 81.13%EV -9.13%E -8.23%K -83.01%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.00%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.87%EV -17.35%E -2.48%K -2.89%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-12 16:30
BoyleSports1.15I 86.96%NM 78.12%EV -5.86%E -5.09%K -39.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.91%EV -17.74%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.97%EV -29.15%E -4.86%K -5.83%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-12 16:15
Marża = Marża (suma nadmiarowa) · I = Prawdopodobieństwo implikowane · NM = Prawdopodobieństwo bez marży · EV = Wartość oczekiwana · E = Przewaga · K = Kryterium Kelly’ego · G = Wzrost kapitału

Aktualizacja oznacza chwilę ostatniej zmiany kursu przez danego bukmachera. Starszy czas wskazuje więc, że kurs się nie zmienił, a nie że jest nieaktualny. Bukmacherzy niewidoczni przez około 15 minut są zwykle usuwani; jedynie gdy zamilknie źródło danych całego rynku, wyświetlane są ostatnie zarejestrowane kursy.

Giełdy zakładów (6)

BukmacherGospodarzeGościeRemisMarża ▲Aktualizacja
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.16I 86.21%NM 85.89%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.15%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.96%0.4%2026-04-12 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.16I 86.21%NM 85.89%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.15%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.96%0.4%2026-04-12 16:55
Matchbook1.16I 86.21%NM 85.89%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.15%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.96%0.4%2026-04-12 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.16I 86.21%NM 85.71%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.14%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.15%0.6%2026-04-12 16:55
Smarkets1.15I 86.96%NM 85.66%22.99I 4.35%NM 4.29%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.05%1.5%2026-04-12 16:55
Kalshi1.15I 86.96%NM 85.29%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.90%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.81%2.0%2026-04-12 16:55