La escuela de los momios

Benfica v Nacional

Inicio: 2026-04-12 17:00 UTC

Final: Benfica 2–0 Nacional

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Benfica (Local)

Predicción 81.86%1.22momio equitativo
EV -3.40%
Ventaja -2.88%
Kelly -18.89%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.18

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
78.12%81.77%81.72%84.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.091.141.141.1891.74%87.92%87.72%84.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Nacional (Visitante)

Predicción 6.33%15.80momio equitativo
EV +9.85%
Ventaja +0.568%
Kelly +0.602%
Crecimiento +0.059%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 17.36

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
5.38%6.37%6.27%8.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
11.5014.7415.0017.368.70%6.78%6.67%5.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 11.81%8.47momio equitativo
EV +9.69%
Ventaja +1.04%
Kelly +1.17%
Crecimiento +0.113%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.29

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.15%11.86%12.01%14.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.007.827.509.2916.67%12.78%13.33%10.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.14I 87.72%NM 84.15%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%17.36I 5.76%NM 5.53%EV +9.85%E +0.568%K +0.602%G +0.059%9.29I 10.76%NM 10.33%EV +9.69%E +1.04%K +1.17%G +0.113%4.2%2026-04-12 16:55
Fanatics1.13I 88.50%NM 83.60%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.90%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV +6.27%E +0.697%K +0.784%G +0.049%5.9%2026-04-12 15:30
Unibet (FR)1.13I 88.50%NM 82.90%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV -11.41%E -0.815%K -0.878%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV +6.27%E +0.697%K +0.784%G +0.049%6.7%2026-04-12 16:35
Tipico (DE)1.12I 89.29%NM 83.40%EV -8.31%E -7.42%K -69.27%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +6.27%E +0.697%K +0.784%G +0.049%7.1%2026-04-12 09:25
Winamax (DE)1.10I 90.91%NM 83.28%EV -9.95%E -9.04%K -99.49%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.54%EV -11.41%E -0.815%K -0.878%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.18%EV +6.27%E +0.697%K +0.784%G +0.049%9.2%2026-04-12 16:55
Winamax (FR)1.10I 90.91%NM 83.08%EV -9.95%E -9.04%K -99.49%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.77%EV -14.57%E -1.08%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV +6.27%E +0.697%K +0.784%G +0.049%9.4%2026-04-12 16:54
DraftKings1.14I 87.72%NM 82.64%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.08%EV +0.365%E +0.043%K +0.049%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 16:30
BetUS1.14I 87.72%NM 82.64%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.08%EV +0.365%E +0.043%K +0.049%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 16:54
Everygame1.12I 89.29%NM 82.89%EV -8.31%E -7.42%K -69.27%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV +0.365%E +0.043%K +0.049%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 16:55
SportsBet1.11I 90.09%NM 83.62%EV -9.13%E -8.23%K -83.01%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV +7.58%E +0.446%K +0.474%G +0.036%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV +0.365%E +0.043%K +0.049%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 16:05
Paddy Power1.11I 90.09%NM 83.62%EV -9.13%E -8.23%K -83.01%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV +7.58%E +0.446%K +0.474%G +0.036%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV +0.365%E +0.043%K +0.049%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 16:04
LowVig.ag1.13I 88.50%NM 81.39%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -24.06%E -2.01%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.95%EV -0.816%E -0.097%K -0.110%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-12 16:54
BetOnline.ag1.13I 88.50%NM 81.39%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -24.06%E -2.01%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.95%EV -0.816%E -0.097%K -0.110%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-12 16:55
Marathon Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 82.15%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%14.25I 7.02%NM 6.57%EV -9.83%E -0.690%K -0.742%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.28%EV -2.00%E -0.241%K -0.274%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 16:54
1xBet1.18I 84.75%NM 81.99%EV -3.40%E -2.88%K -18.89%G +0.000%16.10I 6.21%NM 6.01%EV +1.88%E +0.117%K +0.125%G +0.002%8.06I 12.41%NM 12.00%EV -4.83%E -0.599%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-12 16:54
Coral1.18I 84.75%NM 80.76%EV -3.40%E -2.88%K -18.89%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.33%EV -17.74%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -5.54%E -0.692%K -0.791%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 16:55
Svenska Spel1.15I 86.96%NM 82.26%EV -5.86%E -5.09%K -39.04%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -5.54%E -0.692%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 16:55
ATG (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.26%EV -5.86%E -5.09%K -39.04%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -5.54%E -0.692%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 16:55
Sky Bet1.13I 88.50%NM 82.20%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -5.54%E -0.692%K -0.791%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 16:05
FanDuel1.10I 90.91%NM 83.18%EV -9.95%E -9.04%K -99.49%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV +7.58%E +0.446%K +0.474%G +0.036%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -5.54%E -0.692%K -0.791%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-12 16:03
NetBet (FR)1.09I 91.74%NM 83.03%EV -10.77%E -9.88%K -119.64%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -5.54%E -0.692%K -0.791%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-12 16:55
Coolbet1.17I 85.47%NM 81.37%EV -4.22%E -3.61%K -24.82%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.35%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.28%EV -8.49%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 11:50
Betclic (FR)1.13I 88.50%NM 82.55%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%17.25I 5.80%NM 5.41%EV +9.16%E +0.531%K +0.564%G +0.052%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.04%EV -8.49%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 16:55
PlayUp1.14I 87.72%NM 81.76%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.03%EV -8.49%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 16:35
BetMGM1.18I 84.75%NM 79.89%EV -3.40%E -2.88%K -18.89%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -20.90%E -1.67%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.18I 84.75%NM 79.64%EV -3.40%E -2.88%K -18.89%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -24.06%E -2.01%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 16:55
Neds1.18I 84.75%NM 79.37%EV -3.40%E -2.88%K -18.89%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -27.23%E -2.37%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 16:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.18I 84.75%NM 79.37%EV -3.40%E -2.88%K -18.89%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -27.23%E -2.37%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 16:55
Bet Right1.16I 86.21%NM 80.39%EV -5.04%E -4.34%K -31.48%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.17%EV -17.74%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 11:49
Grosvenor1.14I 87.72%NM 81.75%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 13:00
Casumo1.14I 87.72%NM 81.75%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 13:00
Bally Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 81.75%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 13:01
betPARX1.14I 87.72%NM 81.75%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 13:00
888sport1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -5.86%E -5.09%K -39.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -17.74%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 16:30
Mr Green (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -5.86%E -5.09%K -39.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -17.74%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 16:30
888sport (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -5.86%E -5.09%K -39.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -17.74%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 16:30
William Hill1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -5.86%E -5.09%K -39.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -17.74%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 16:34
PointsBet (AU)1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -5.86%E -5.09%K -39.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -17.74%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 05:09
Unibet1.13I 88.50%NM 81.88%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 13:00
Unibet (SE)1.13I 88.50%NM 81.88%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 13:01
Unibet (NL)1.13I 88.50%NM 81.88%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 13:00
BetRivers1.13I 88.50%NM 81.88%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 13:01
TABtouch1.13I 88.50%NM 81.88%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +1.25%E +0.078%K +0.083%G +0.001%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 13:01
LeoVegas (SE)1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -8.31%E -7.42%K -69.27%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-12 16:55
LiveScore Bet1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -8.31%E -7.42%K -69.27%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-12 16:55
PMU (FR)1.11I 90.09%NM 81.83%EV -9.13%E -8.23%K -83.01%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 16:53
Virgin Bet1.11I 90.09%NM 81.83%EV -9.13%E -8.23%K -83.01%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 16:55
LeoVegas1.10I 90.91%NM 81.97%EV -9.95%E -9.04%K -99.49%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.01%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -11.44%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-12 16:53
NordicBet1.14I 87.72%NM 81.76%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.65%EV +4.41%E +0.267%K +0.285%G +0.013%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.59%EV -12.62%E -1.71%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 16:54
Betsson1.14I 87.72%NM 81.76%EV -6.67%E -5.85%K -47.68%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.65%EV +4.41%E +0.267%K +0.285%G +0.013%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.59%EV -12.62%E -1.71%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 16:55
Betr (AU)1.16I 86.21%NM 80.46%EV -5.04%E -4.34%K -31.48%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.67%EV -11.41%E -0.815%K -0.878%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.87%EV -14.39%E -1.99%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 11:49
Betway1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -4.22%E -3.61%K -24.82%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -17.74%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -17.35%E -2.48%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 12:35
Bet Victor1.13I 88.50%NM 80.86%EV -7.49%E -6.63%K -57.64%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -17.35%E -2.48%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-12 16:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.11I 90.09%NM 81.13%EV -9.13%E -8.23%K -83.01%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.00%EV -5.08%E -0.339%K -0.363%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.87%EV -17.35%E -2.48%K -2.89%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-12 16:30
BoyleSports1.15I 86.96%NM 78.12%EV -5.86%E -5.09%K -39.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.91%EV -17.74%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.97%EV -29.15%E -4.86%K -5.83%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-12 16:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.16I 86.21%NM 85.89%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.15%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.96%0.4%2026-04-12 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.16I 86.21%NM 85.89%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.15%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.96%0.4%2026-04-12 16:55
Matchbook1.16I 86.21%NM 85.89%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.15%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.96%0.4%2026-04-12 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.16I 86.21%NM 85.71%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.14%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.15%0.6%2026-04-12 16:55
Smarkets1.15I 86.96%NM 85.66%22.99I 4.35%NM 4.29%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.05%1.5%2026-04-12 16:55
Kalshi1.15I 86.96%NM 85.29%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.90%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.81%2.0%2026-04-12 16:55