Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.12
assuming max odds 27.00
assuming max odds 12.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Benfica (Local): 86.04%; Estoril (Visit): 4.56%; Draw: 9.40%. For Estoril (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 21.91. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 27.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.25%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.51%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.43%EV +23.25%E +0.861%K +0.894%G +0.208% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.06%EV -33.27%E -4.69%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-31 18:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.51%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.43%EV +23.25%E +0.861%K +0.894%G +0.208% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.06%EV -33.27%E -4.69%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-31 18:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.86%EV -3.64%E -3.25%K -30.33%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.61%EV +18.69%E +0.719%K +0.747%G +0.140% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -29.51%E -3.93%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.75%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000% | 25.99I 3.85%NM 3.71%EV +18.64%E +0.717%K +0.746%G +0.139% | 11.31I 8.84%NM 8.53%EV +6.30%E +0.557%K +0.611%G +0.039% | 3.6% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.03%EV -7.94%E -7.42%K -113.44%G +0.000% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 3.88%EV +9.56%E +0.398%K +0.416%G +0.040% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.09%EV -3.66%E -0.357%K -0.396%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.94%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.11%EV +4.99%E +0.217%K +0.227%G +0.011% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 19:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.29%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000% | 22.50I 4.44%NM 4.22%EV +2.71%E +0.120%K +0.126%G +0.003% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -6.01%E -0.601%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-31 18:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.27%EV -7.94%E -7.42%K -113.44%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.24%EV +0.427%E +0.019%K +0.020%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV +3.39%E +0.308%K +0.339%G +0.011% | 7.1% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.01%EV -3.64%E -3.25%K -30.33%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.40%EV -3.66%E -0.357%K -0.396%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-31 16:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.01%EV -3.64%E -3.25%K -30.33%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.40%EV -3.66%E -0.357%K -0.396%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-31 16:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.01%EV -3.64%E -3.25%K -30.33%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.40%EV -3.66%E -0.357%K -0.396%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-31 16:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.21%EV -6.22%E -5.71%K -69.12%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.53%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.27%EV +8.09%E +0.703%K +0.770%G +0.062% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 19:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.82%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.50%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.68%EV -8.36%E -0.858%K -0.956%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-31 18:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -6.22%E -5.71%K -69.12%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.49%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.98%EV -1.31%E -0.125%K -0.138%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +3.39%E +0.308%K +0.339%G +0.011% | 6.4% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +3.39%E +0.308%K +0.339%G +0.011% | 6.4% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +3.39%E +0.308%K +0.339%G +0.011% | 6.4% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +3.39%E +0.308%K +0.339%G +0.011% | 6.4% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -1.31%E -0.125%K -0.138%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-31 18:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.25%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.01%E -0.601%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-31 18:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.05%EV -8.80%E -8.30%K -146.69%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.34%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-31 19:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.05%EV -8.80%E -8.30%K -146.69%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.34%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.95%EV -6.22%E -5.71%K -69.12%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.68%EV -8.70%E -0.435%K -0.458%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -6.01%E -0.601%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-31 19:02 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.17%EV -7.94%E -7.42%K -113.44%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV -8.70%E -0.435%K -0.458%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -6.01%E -0.601%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-31 18:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 85.49%EV -8.80%E -8.30%K -146.69%G +0.000% | 19.25I 5.19%NM 4.71%EV -12.13%E -0.630%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 9.80%EV -13.06%E -1.41%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-31 19:08 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.36%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +3.39%E +0.308%K +0.339%G +0.011% | 5.3% | 2026-08-31 18:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.20%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-31 18:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.30%EV -7.94%E -7.42%K -113.44%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +12.79%E +1.07%K +1.16%G +0.149% | 7.1% | 2026-08-31 17:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.74%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.91%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -15.41%E -1.71%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-31 18:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.74%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.91%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -15.41%E -1.71%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-31 18:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 85.78%EV -9.66%E -9.20%K -193.24%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.74%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.48%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 85.85%EV -8.80%E -8.30%K -146.69%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.06%EV -17.83%E -0.991%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.10%EV -6.01%E -0.601%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-31 19:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.75%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.60%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +3.39%E +0.308%K +0.339%G +0.011% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.75%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.60%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +3.39%E +0.308%K +0.339%G +0.011% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 18:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.40%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.03%EV -1.31%E -0.125%K -0.138%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 18:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 83.87%EV -6.22%E -5.71%K -69.12%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.75%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-31 18:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 83.87%EV -6.22%E -5.71%K -69.12%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.75%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 83.87%EV -6.22%E -5.71%K -69.12%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.75%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 83.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 83.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 83.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 83.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 83.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 83.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.46%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.74%EV -26.96%E -1.69%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.80%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-31 18:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.19%EV -7.94%E -7.42%K -113.44%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.70%EV -26.96%E -1.69%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -6.01%E -0.601%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 83.05%EV -7.94%E -7.42%K -113.44%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.55%EV -26.96%E -1.69%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.39%EV -26.69%E -3.42%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.88%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -31.53%E -2.10%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -1.31%E -0.125%K -0.138%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-31 18:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.88%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -31.53%E -2.10%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -1.31%E -0.125%K -0.138%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-31 18:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 84.14%EV -8.80%E -8.30%K -146.69%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.95%EV -31.53%E -2.10%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.91%EV -15.41%E -1.71%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.53% | 32.00I 3.13%NM 3.11% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.36% | 0.6% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.35% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.31% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.35% | 0.8% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.35% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.31% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.35% | 0.8% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.25% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.42% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.34% | 0.9% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 89.33% | 28.99I 3.45%NM 3.39% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.28% | 1.8% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 88.25% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.92% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.84% | 2.1% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |