Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Benfica v Estoril

Kickoff: 2026-08-31 19:15 UTC

Final: Benfica 2–1 Estoril

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Benfica (Local)

Prediction 86.04%1.16fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -3.25%
Kelly -30.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.05%85.87%86.01%87.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.091.091.1295.24%91.71%91.74%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Estoril (Visit)

Prediction 4.56%21.91fair odd
EV +23.25%
Edge +0.861%
Kelly +0.894%
Growth +0.208%

assuming max odds 27.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.43%4.61%4.56%6.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0019.5319.0027.006.67%5.12%5.26%3.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.40%10.64fair odd
EV +12.79%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +1.16%
Growth +0.149%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.78%9.52%9.44%13.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.109.679.5012.0014.08%10.35%10.53%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Benfica (Local): 86.04%; Estoril (Visit): 4.56%; Draw: 9.40%. For Estoril (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 21.91. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 27.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.51%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.43%EV +23.25%E +0.861%K +0.894%G +0.208%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.06%EV -33.27%E -4.69%K -5.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-31 18:29
Betsson🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.51%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.43%EV +23.25%E +0.861%K +0.894%G +0.208%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.06%EV -33.27%E -4.69%K -5.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-31 18:29
PlayUp🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.86%EV -3.64%E -3.25%K -30.33%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.61%EV +18.69%E +0.719%K +0.747%G +0.140%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -29.51%E -3.93%K -4.54%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-31 19:05
Pinnacle🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.75%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000%25.99I 3.85%NM 3.71%EV +18.64%E +0.717%K +0.746%G +0.139%11.31I 8.84%NM 8.53%EV +6.30%E +0.557%K +0.611%G +0.039%3.6%2026-08-31 19:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.03%EV -7.94%E -7.42%K -113.44%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.88%EV +9.56%E +0.398%K +0.416%G +0.040%10.25I 9.76%NM 9.09%EV -3.66%E -0.357%K -0.396%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 19:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.94%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.11%EV +4.99%E +0.217%K +0.227%G +0.011%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 19:00
Coolbet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.29%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000%22.50I 4.44%NM 4.22%EV +2.71%E +0.120%K +0.126%G +0.003%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -6.01%E -0.601%K -0.668%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-31 18:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.27%EV -7.94%E -7.42%K -113.44%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.24%EV +0.427%E +0.019%K +0.020%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV +3.39%E +0.308%K +0.339%G +0.011%7.1%2026-08-31 19:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 86.01%EV -3.64%E -3.25%K -30.33%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 9.40%EV -3.66%E -0.357%K -0.396%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-31 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 86.01%EV -3.64%E -3.25%K -30.33%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 9.40%EV -3.66%E -0.357%K -0.396%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-31 16:39
BetUS🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 86.01%EV -3.64%E -3.25%K -30.33%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 9.40%EV -3.66%E -0.357%K -0.396%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-31 16:40
Fanatics🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.21%EV -6.22%E -5.71%K -69.12%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.53%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.27%EV +8.09%E +0.703%K +0.770%G +0.062%5.2%2026-08-31 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.82%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.50%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.68%EV -8.36%E -0.858%K -0.956%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 18:50
DraftKings🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -6.22%E -5.71%K -69.12%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.49%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.98%EV -1.31%E -0.125%K -0.138%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 19:05
888sport🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +3.39%E +0.308%K +0.339%G +0.011%6.4%2026-08-31 19:05
William Hill🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +3.39%E +0.308%K +0.339%G +0.011%6.4%2026-08-31 19:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +3.39%E +0.308%K +0.339%G +0.011%6.4%2026-08-31 19:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +3.39%E +0.308%K +0.339%G +0.011%6.4%2026-08-31 19:05
SportsBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -1.31%E -0.125%K -0.138%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-31 18:05
Paddy Power🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.25%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.01%E -0.601%K -0.668%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 18:00
betano_uk🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.05%EV -8.80%E -8.30%K -146.69%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.34%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-31 19:09
Bet Victor🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.05%EV -8.80%E -8.30%K -146.69%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.34%EV -4.14%E -0.197%K -0.207%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-31 19:10
Bovada🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.95%EV -6.22%E -5.71%K -69.12%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.68%EV -8.70%E -0.435%K -0.458%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -6.01%E -0.601%K -0.668%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 19:02
FanDuel🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.17%EV -7.94%E -7.42%K -113.44%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV -8.70%E -0.435%K -0.458%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -6.01%E -0.601%K -0.668%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 18:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.49%EV -8.80%E -8.30%K -146.69%G +0.000%19.25I 5.19%NM 4.71%EV -12.13%E -0.630%K -0.664%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.80%EV -13.06%E -1.41%K -1.58%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-31 19:08
Betway🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.36%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +3.39%E +0.308%K +0.339%G +0.011%5.3%2026-08-31 18:55
Casumo🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 19:05
Grosvenor🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 19:10
Bally Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 19:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 19:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 19:05
betPARX🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 19:10
BoyleSports🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.20%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 18:30
Sky Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.30%EV -7.94%E -7.42%K -113.44%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +12.79%E +1.07%K +1.16%G +0.149%7.1%2026-08-31 17:30
Bet Right🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.74%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.91%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -15.41%E -1.71%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-31 18:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.74%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.91%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -15.41%E -1.71%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-31 18:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 85.78%EV -9.66%E -9.20%K -193.24%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.74%EV -13.27%E -0.698%K -0.737%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.48%EV -10.71%E -1.13%K -1.26%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-31 19:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.85%EV -8.80%E -8.30%K -146.69%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.06%EV -17.83%E -0.991%K -1.05%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.10%EV -6.01%E -0.601%K -0.668%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-31 19:00
Coral🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.75%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.60%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +3.39%E +0.308%K +0.339%G +0.011%5.1%2026-08-31 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.75%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.60%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +3.39%E +0.308%K +0.339%G +0.011%5.1%2026-08-31 18:29
BetMGM🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.40%EV -4.50%E -4.05%K -40.91%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.03%EV -1.31%E -0.125%K -0.138%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 18:40
betfred_uk🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.87%EV -6.22%E -5.71%K -69.12%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.75%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-31 18:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.87%EV -6.22%E -5.71%K -69.12%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.75%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-31 19:05
TABtouch🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.87%EV -6.22%E -5.71%K -69.12%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.75%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-31 19:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-31 19:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-31 19:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-31 19:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-31 19:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-31 19:05
Unibet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.99%EV -7.08%E -6.56%K -88.51%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -22.40%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-31 19:05
BetRivers🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.46%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.74%EV -26.96%E -1.69%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.80%EV -20.11%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-31 18:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.19%EV -7.94%E -7.42%K -113.44%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.70%EV -26.96%E -1.69%K -1.80%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -6.01%E -0.601%K -0.668%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-31 19:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 83.05%EV -7.94%E -7.42%K -113.44%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.55%EV -26.96%E -1.69%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.39%EV -26.69%E -3.42%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-31 19:10
Neds🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.88%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -31.53%E -2.10%K -2.25%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -1.31%E -0.125%K -0.138%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-31 18:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.88%EV -5.36%E -4.87%K -53.60%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -31.53%E -2.10%K -2.25%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -1.31%E -0.125%K -0.138%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-31 18:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.14%EV -8.80%E -8.30%K -146.69%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.95%EV -31.53%E -2.10%K -2.25%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.91%EV -15.41%E -1.71%K -1.93%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-31 19:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.11I 90.09%NM 89.53%32.00I 3.13%NM 3.11%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.36%0.6%2026-08-31 19:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.11I 90.09%NM 89.35%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.31%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.35%0.8%2026-08-31 19:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.11I 90.09%NM 89.35%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.31%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.35%0.8%2026-08-31 19:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.11I 90.09%NM 89.25%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.42%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.34%0.9%2026-08-31 19:05
Smarkets1.10I 90.91%NM 89.33%28.99I 3.45%NM 3.39%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.28%1.8%2026-08-31 19:10
Kalshi1.11I 90.09%NM 88.25%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.92%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.84%2.1%2026-08-31 19:05