Language:English
Benfica v Braga
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Benfica (Local)
Prediction 68.20%1.47fair odd
EV -4.52%
Edge -3.23%
Kelly -11.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.68%68.19%68.15%70.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.361.361.4077.52%73.42%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Braga (Visit)
Prediction 12.31%8.12fair odd
EV +4.00%
Edge +0.474%
Kelly +0.537%
Growth +0.022%
assuming max odds 8.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.50%12.38%12.33%14.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.377.508.4516.67%13.57%13.33%11.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.50%5.13fair odd
EV +1.38%
Edge +0.265%
Kelly +0.328%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 5.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.99%19.43%19.53%21.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.724.755.2025.00%21.20%21.05%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Benfica (Local): 68.20%; Braga (Visit): 12.31%; Draw: 19.50%. For Braga (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.12. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.00%.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.41%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 8.45I 11.83%NM 11.50%EV +4.00%E +0.474%K +0.537%G +0.022% | 5.09I 19.65%NM 19.09%EV -0.769%E -0.151%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.06%EV -7.93%E -5.88%K -22.67%G +0.000% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.51%EV -0.306%E -0.038%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.42%EV -6.42%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-05 22:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.04%EV -5.89%E -4.27%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -1.54%E -0.192%K -0.219%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -2.52%E -0.505%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-05 07:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.32%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.18%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -1.54%E -0.192%K -0.219%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV +1.38%E +0.265%K +0.328%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-05-05 16:17 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.19%EV -5.21%E -3.75%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.82%EV -2.77%E -0.350%K -0.401%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -13.25%E -2.98%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-03 22:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.19%EV -5.21%E -3.75%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.82%EV -2.77%E -0.350%K -0.401%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -13.25%E -2.98%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-03 22:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.08%EV -6.57%E -4.80%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 7.79I 12.84%NM 12.15%EV -4.12%E -0.529%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 5.04I 19.84%NM 18.78%EV -1.74%E -0.346%K -0.432%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-05 22:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.57%EV -7.93%E -5.88%K -22.67%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.94%EV -4.61%E -0.595%K -0.683%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -7.40%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-04 23:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -6.42%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-04 23:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.52%EV -6.57%E -4.80%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.96%EV -3.50%E -0.707%K -0.886%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-05 08:22 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.52%EV -6.57%E -4.80%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.96%EV -3.50%E -0.707%K -0.886%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-05 22:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.82%EV -5.89%E -4.27%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -7.40%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-05 00:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.15%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -2.52%E -0.505%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-05 12:28 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.98%EV -6.57%E -4.80%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -7.40%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-05 00:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.98%EV -6.57%E -4.80%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -7.40%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-05 00:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -8.62%E -6.43%K -25.34%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -2.52%E -0.505%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-05 00:28 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.18%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -2.52%E -0.505%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 00:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.18%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -2.52%E -0.505%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 00:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.77%EV -5.89%E -4.27%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -14.22%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 15:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.15%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -10.32%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.15%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -10.32%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.15%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -10.32%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.15%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -10.32%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.19%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.18%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -10.32%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.51%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 7.43I 13.46%NM 12.72%EV -8.55%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.78I 20.92%NM 19.77%EV -6.81%E -1.43%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-04 00:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.01%EV -7.93%E -5.88%K -22.67%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.66%EV -10.77%E -1.49%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.33%EV -7.40%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-05 16:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.81%EV -7.93%E -5.88%K -22.67%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.71%EV -11.38%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.48%EV -8.37%E -1.78%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-04 08:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.81%EV -7.93%E -5.88%K -22.67%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.71%EV -11.38%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.48%EV -8.37%E -1.78%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-04 08:08 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 67.47%EV -10.66%E -8.14%K -34.39%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 12.45%EV -12.61%E -1.78%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.09%EV -14.22%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-04 23:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -13.84%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -6.42%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-04 23:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -13.84%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -7.40%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-04 23:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -13.84%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -7.40%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-04 23:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -13.84%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -7.40%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-04 23:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.22%EV -5.89%E -4.27%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -13.84%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -7.40%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-05 07:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.24%EV -6.57%E -4.80%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.16%EV -13.84%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -8.37%E -1.78%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-03 22:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.15%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -13.84%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.32%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-05 00:28 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.15%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -13.84%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -12.27%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-04 06:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 65.68%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.18%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.48%EV -13.84%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -22.02%E -5.50%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-05-04 23:24 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.18%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -20.00%E -3.08%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -10.32%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-05 00:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.66%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.18%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.64%EV -20.00%E -3.08%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -12.27%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-05-04 23:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 65.70%EV -12.03%E -9.32%K -41.47%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.12%EV -26.15%E -4.36%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.18%EV -18.12%E -4.31%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 18.0% | 2026-05-04 23:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.61% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.46% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94% | 5.6% | 2026-05-05 12:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.61% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.46% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94% | 5.6% | 2026-05-05 12:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.38% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.75% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87% | 6.0% | 2026-05-05 14:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.16% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.53% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.31% | 7.9% | 2026-05-05 13:05 |