La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Benfica v Braga
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Benfica (Local)
Predicción 68.20%1.47momio equitativo
EV -4.52%
Ventaja -3.23%
Kelly -11.31%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.40
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.68%68.19%68.15%70.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.291.361.361.4077.52%73.42%73.53%71.43%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Braga (Visitante)
Predicción 12.31%8.12momio equitativo
EV +4.00%
Ventaja +0.474%
Kelly +0.537%
Crecimiento +0.022%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.45
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.50%12.38%12.33%14.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.007.377.508.4516.67%13.57%13.33%11.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 19.50%5.13momio equitativo
EV +1.38%
Ventaja +0.265%
Kelly +0.328%
Crecimiento +0.005%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.20
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.99%19.43%19.53%21.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.004.724.755.2025.00%21.20%21.05%19.23%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (41 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.41%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 8.45I 11.83%NM 11.50%EV +4.00%E +0.474%K +0.537%G +0.022% | 5.09I 19.65%NM 19.09%EV -0.769%E -0.151%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.06%EV -7.93%E -5.88%K -22.67%G +0.000% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.51%EV -0.306%E -0.038%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.42%EV -6.42%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-05 22:25 |
| Coolbet | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.04%EV -5.89%E -4.27%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -1.54%E -0.192%K -0.219%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -2.52%E -0.505%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-05 07:29 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.32%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.18%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -1.54%E -0.192%K -0.219%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV +1.38%E +0.265%K +0.328%G +0.005% | 6.9% | 2026-05-05 16:17 |
| NordicBet | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.19%EV -5.21%E -3.75%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.82%EV -2.77%E -0.350%K -0.401%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -13.25%E -2.98%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-03 22:00 |
| Betsson | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.19%EV -5.21%E -3.75%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.82%EV -2.77%E -0.350%K -0.401%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -13.25%E -2.98%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-03 22:00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.08%EV -6.57%E -4.80%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 7.79I 12.84%NM 12.15%EV -4.12%E -0.529%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 5.04I 19.84%NM 18.78%EV -1.74%E -0.346%K -0.432%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-05 22:35 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.57%EV -7.93%E -5.88%K -22.67%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.94%EV -4.61%E -0.595%K -0.683%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -7.40%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-04 23:19 |
| Coral | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -6.42%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-04 23:19 |
| Bovada | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.52%EV -6.57%E -4.80%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.96%EV -3.50%E -0.707%K -0.886%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-05 08:22 |
| BetUS | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.52%EV -6.57%E -4.80%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.96%EV -3.50%E -0.707%K -0.886%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-05 22:15 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.82%EV -5.89%E -4.27%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -7.40%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-05 00:30 |
| Fanatics | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.15%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -2.52%E -0.505%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-05 12:28 |
| Bet Right | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.98%EV -6.57%E -4.80%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -7.40%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-05 00:30 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.98%EV -6.57%E -4.80%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -7.40%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-05 00:30 |
| FanDuel | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -8.62%E -6.43%K -25.34%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -2.52%E -0.505%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-05 00:28 |
| SportsBet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.18%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -2.52%E -0.505%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 00:30 |
| Paddy Power | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.18%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -2.52%E -0.505%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 00:34 |
| PlayUp | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.77%EV -5.89%E -4.27%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -14.22%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 15:19 |
| 888sport | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.15%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -10.32%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.15%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -10.32%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.15%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -10.32%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| William Hill | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.15%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -10.32%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.19%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.18%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -7.69%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -10.32%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| GTbets | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.51%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 7.43I 13.46%NM 12.72%EV -8.55%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.78I 20.92%NM 19.77%EV -6.81%E -1.43%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-04 00:25 |
| Everygame | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.01%EV -7.93%E -5.88%K -22.67%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.66%EV -10.77%E -1.49%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.33%EV -7.40%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-05 16:19 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.81%EV -7.93%E -5.88%K -22.67%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.71%EV -11.38%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.48%EV -8.37%E -1.78%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-04 08:10 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.81%EV -7.93%E -5.88%K -22.67%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.71%EV -11.38%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.48%EV -8.37%E -1.78%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-04 08:08 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.31I 76.34%NM 67.47%EV -10.66%E -8.14%K -34.39%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 12.45%EV -12.61%E -1.78%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.09%EV -14.22%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-04 23:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -13.84%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -6.42%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-04 23:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -13.84%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -7.40%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-04 23:19 |
| Neds | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -13.84%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -7.40%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-04 23:19 |
| BetMGM | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -13.84%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -7.40%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-04 23:20 |
| Betway | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.22%EV -5.89%E -4.27%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -13.84%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -7.40%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-05 07:55 |
| DraftKings | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.24%EV -6.57%E -4.80%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.16%EV -13.84%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -8.37%E -1.78%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-03 22:00 |
| betfred_uk | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.15%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -13.84%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.32%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-05 00:28 |
| BoyleSports | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.15%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -13.84%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -12.27%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-04 06:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 65.68%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.18%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.48%EV -13.84%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -22.02%E -5.50%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-05-04 23:24 |
| Sky Bet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.18%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -20.00%E -3.08%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -10.32%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-05 00:30 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.66%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.18%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.64%EV -20.00%E -3.08%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -12.27%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-05-04 23:20 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 65.70%EV -12.03%E -9.32%K -41.47%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.12%EV -26.15%E -4.36%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.18%EV -18.12%E -4.31%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 18.0% | 2026-05-04 23:20 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.61% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.46% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94% | 5.6% | 2026-05-05 12:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.61% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.46% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94% | 5.6% | 2026-05-05 12:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.38% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.75% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87% | 6.0% | 2026-05-05 14:15 |
| Smarkets | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.16% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.53% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.31% | 7.9% | 2026-05-05 13:05 |