Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 4.75
assuming max odds 1.91
assuming max odds 3.50
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AVS Futebol SAD (Local): 21.31%; Santa Clara (Visit): 50.48%; Draw: 28.21%. For AVS Futebol SAD (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.69. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.22%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.25%EV +1.22%E +0.258%K +0.326%G +0.004% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.45%EV -5.60%E -2.99%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.30%EV -4.09%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-15 08:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +0.158%E +0.034%K +0.043%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.88%EV -7.62%E -4.16%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -4.09%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-15 15:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV +0.158%E +0.034%K +0.043%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.88%EV -7.62%E -4.16%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -4.09%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-15 15:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV +0.158%E +0.034%K +0.043%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.86%EV -9.13%E -5.07%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.66I 21.46%NM 20.71%EV -0.695%E -0.149%K -0.190%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.33%EV -5.09%E -2.71%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -2.68%E -0.777%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-15 15:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.20%EV -4.10%E -0.912%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.74%EV -5.09%E -2.71%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -4.09%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-15 14:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -4.10%E -0.912%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -5.09%E -2.71%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.18%EV -4.66%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.10%E -0.912%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -7.62%E -4.16%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -4.09%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-15 10:08 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -4.10%E -0.912%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.07%EV -7.11%E -3.87%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -5.50%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-15 15:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -4.10%E -0.912%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.07%EV -7.11%E -3.87%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -5.50%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-15 15:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -4.10%E -0.912%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -6.61%E -3.57%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-15 10:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -4.10%E -0.912%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -6.61%E -3.57%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-15 10:07 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -4.10%E -0.912%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -7.62%E -4.16%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.48I 22.32%NM 21.03%EV -4.53%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -6.61%E -3.57%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.04%EV -5.22%E -1.55%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-13 13:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -6.24%E -1.42%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%EV -3.58%E -1.87%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.24%E -1.42%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.42%EV -5.60%E -2.99%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -5.50%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -6.24%E -1.42%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -6.61%E -3.57%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.30%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-15 02:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.24%E -1.42%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -6.61%E -3.57%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.42%EV -7.48%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-15 15:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.30%E -1.68%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.95%EV -5.09%E -2.71%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.72%EV -7.73%E -1.78%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -7.62%E -4.16%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -1.27%E -0.363%K -0.509%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-15 10:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.61%EV -7.73%E -1.78%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.04%EV -5.60%E -2.99%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.49%EV -7.73%E -1.78%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.31%EV -6.61%E -3.57%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.49%EV -7.73%E -1.78%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.31%EV -6.61%E -3.57%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.49%EV -7.73%E -1.78%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.31%EV -6.61%E -3.57%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.31%EV -7.73%E -1.78%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.87%EV -6.61%E -3.57%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -9.73%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.31%EV -7.73%E -1.78%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.87%EV -6.61%E -3.57%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -9.73%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-15 15:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.31%EV -7.73%E -1.78%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.87%EV -6.61%E -3.57%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -9.73%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.31%EV -7.73%E -1.78%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.87%EV -6.61%E -3.57%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -9.73%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -7.73%E -1.78%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.14%EV -7.62%E -4.16%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.73%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-09 05:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -8.37%E -1.95%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.70%EV -4.59%E -2.43%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-15 15:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -8.37%E -1.95%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.70%EV -4.59%E -2.43%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-15 15:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -8.37%E -1.95%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -5.09%E -2.71%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -8.32%E -2.56%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-15 15:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -8.37%E -1.95%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -5.09%E -2.71%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -8.32%E -2.56%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-15 15:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -8.37%E -1.95%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -5.09%E -2.71%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -8.32%E -2.56%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-15 15:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -8.37%E -1.95%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -5.09%E -2.71%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -8.32%E -2.56%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-15 15:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -8.37%E -1.95%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.74%EV -5.60%E -2.99%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -8.32%E -2.56%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-15 14:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -8.37%E -1.95%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -7.62%E -4.16%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.22%EV -8.37%E -1.95%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.70%EV -9.13%E -5.07%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.08%EV -8.32%E -2.56%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-15 10:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.01%EV -8.37%E -1.95%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.76%EV -10.14%E -5.70%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.23%EV -9.73%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-15 15:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -9.43%E -2.22%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.31%EV -6.61%E -3.57%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -5.50%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -9.43%E -2.22%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.31%EV -6.61%E -3.57%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -5.50%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -9.43%E -2.22%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -5.09%E -2.71%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.32%E -2.56%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-15 15:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -9.43%E -2.22%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.62%EV -5.60%E -2.99%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -8.32%E -2.56%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-15 15:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -9.43%E -2.22%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.62%EV -5.60%E -2.99%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -8.32%E -2.56%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-15 15:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -9.43%E -2.22%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.62%EV -5.60%E -2.99%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -8.32%E -2.56%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-15 15:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%EV -9.43%E -2.22%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.10%EV -6.61%E -3.57%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-15 14:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%EV -9.43%E -2.22%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.10%EV -6.61%E -3.57%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-15 14:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.68%EV -9.43%E -2.22%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.53%EV -6.10%E -3.28%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.73%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-15 15:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.62%EV -9.43%E -2.22%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.67%EV -6.61%E -3.57%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -9.73%E -3.04%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-15 15:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV -10.50%E -2.50%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.05%EV -6.10%E -3.28%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -5.50%E -1.64%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -10.50%E -2.50%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -6.61%E -3.57%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-15 15:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -10.50%E -2.50%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.45%EV -7.11%E -3.87%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -11.14%E -3.54%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-15 15:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.47%EV -10.50%E -2.50%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.69%EV -12.67%E -7.32%K -17.35%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.85%EV -18.76%E -6.51%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-03-15 12:35 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -12.63%E -3.08%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.30%EV -5.09%E -2.71%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%EV -12.63%E -3.08%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.84%EV -7.11%E -3.87%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -6.91%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.96%EV -12.63%E -3.08%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.46%EV -8.12%E -4.46%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -11.14%E -3.54%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-15 15:25 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 20.00% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 51.02% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.98% | 0.0% | 2026-03-15 15:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.74% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39% | 0.7% | 2026-03-15 15:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.19% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.54% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.27% | 1.1% | 2026-03-15 15:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.19% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.54% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.27% | 1.1% | 2026-03-15 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.19% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.54% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.27% | 1.1% | 2026-03-15 15:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.06% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.46% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.49% | 1.7% | 2026-03-15 15:15 |