L’École des cotes

Arouca v Estoril

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-06 17:45 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Arouca (Local)

Prévision 39.51%2.53cote équitable
EV -2.02%
Avantage -0.816%
Kelly -1.37%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.48

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
37.57%39.54%39.42%40.55%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.202.382.392.4845.45%42.04%41.84%40.32%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Estoril (Visiteur)

Prévision 33.85%2.95cote équitable
EV -1.83%
Avantage -0.630%
Kelly -0.961%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.90

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
32.78%33.89%33.87%35.56%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.502.722.752.9040.00%36.78%36.36%34.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 26.64%3.75cote équitable
EV -0.099%
Avantage -0.026%
Kelly -0.036%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.13%26.56%26.70%27.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.503.503.7532.26%28.59%28.57%26.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
BetOnline.ag2.48I 40.32%NM 39.16%EV -2.02%E -0.816%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.49%EV -1.83%E -0.630%K -0.961%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.36%EV -5.43%E -1.53%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-06 17:20
LowVig.ag2.48I 40.32%NM 39.16%EV -2.02%E -0.816%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.49%EV -1.83%E -0.630%K -0.961%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.36%EV -5.43%E -1.53%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-06 17:20
Casumo2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -2.02%E -0.816%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -10.29%E -3.88%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.76%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-06 17:20
Grosvenor2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -2.02%E -0.816%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -10.29%E -3.88%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.76%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-06 17:20
Bally Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -2.02%E -0.816%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -10.29%E -3.88%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.76%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-06 17:20
ATG (SE)2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -2.02%E -0.816%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -10.29%E -3.88%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.76%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-06 17:20
betPARX2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -2.02%E -0.816%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -10.29%E -3.88%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.76%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-06 17:20
Svenska Spel2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -2.02%E -0.816%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.39%EV -10.29%E -3.88%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.76%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-06 17:20
BetRivers2.48I 40.32%NM 37.57%EV -2.02%E -0.816%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.43%EV -10.97%E -4.17%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -8.09%E -2.35%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-06 17:20
TABtouch2.48I 40.32%NM 37.57%EV -2.02%E -0.816%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.43%EV -10.97%E -4.17%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -8.09%E -2.35%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-06 17:20
Pinnacle2.45I 40.82%NM 39.49%EV -3.21%E -1.31%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.71%EV -2.84%E -0.990%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.80%EV -3.83%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-06 17:40
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -3.21%E -1.31%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.26%EV -10.97%E -4.17%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.88%EV -8.09%E -2.35%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-06 17:20
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -3.21%E -1.31%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.26%EV -10.97%E -4.17%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.88%EV -8.09%E -2.35%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-06 17:20
Unibet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -3.21%E -1.31%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.26%EV -10.97%E -4.17%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.88%EV -8.09%E -2.35%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-06 17:20
LeoVegas (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 37.75%EV -4.00%E -1.65%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.28%EV -11.98%E -4.61%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -9.42%E -2.77%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 17:20
LiveScore Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 37.75%EV -4.00%E -1.65%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.28%EV -11.98%E -4.61%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -9.42%E -2.77%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 17:20
1xBet2.42I 41.32%NM 40.09%EV -4.39%E -1.82%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.69%EV -2.50%E -0.869%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%EV -1.43%E -0.387%K -0.530%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-06 17:40
DraftKings2.40I 41.67%NM 39.48%EV -5.18%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.84%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -5.43%E -1.53%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-06 17:20
BetUS2.40I 41.67%NM 39.48%EV -5.18%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.84%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -5.43%E -1.53%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-06 17:25
FanDuel2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -5.18%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.76%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-06 17:39
Coral2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -5.18%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.60%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.09%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-06 17:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -5.18%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.60%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.09%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-06 17:25
Neds2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -5.18%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.60%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.09%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-06 17:25
Ladbrokes (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -5.18%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.60%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.09%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-06 17:25
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.18%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -6.76%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-06 17:30
Betclic (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.94%EV -5.18%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.98%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -8.09%E -2.35%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-06 17:20
PMU (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -5.18%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -13.67%E -5.36%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -9.42%E -2.77%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-06 17:20
Virgin Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -5.18%E -2.16%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -13.67%E -5.36%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -9.42%E -2.77%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-06 17:20
Marathon Bet2.39I 41.84%NM 39.00%EV -5.58%E -2.33%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.90%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.10%EV -8.36%E -2.43%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-06 17:40
Unibet (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -5.97%E -2.51%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -4.09%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 17:20
BetMGM2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -5.97%E -2.51%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -8.60%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.09%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-06 17:25
Betsson2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -5.97%E -2.51%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.63%EV -5.89%E -2.12%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -8.09%E -2.35%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-06 17:20
NordicBet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -5.97%E -2.51%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.63%EV -5.89%E -2.12%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -8.09%E -2.35%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-06 17:20
LeoVegas2.38I 42.02%NM 37.82%EV -5.97%E -2.51%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.30%EV -13.67%E -5.36%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -10.75%E -3.21%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-06 17:20
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.55%EV -7.16%E -3.05%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -0.099%E -0.026%K -0.036%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-06 17:40
GTbets2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -7.16%E -3.05%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.76%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 17:20
Betr (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -7.16%E -3.05%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -4.09%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-06 16:10
Everygame2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -7.16%E -3.05%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.76%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-06 17:24
Tipico (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -7.16%E -3.05%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -3.52%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -9.42%E -2.77%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 17:20
PlayUp2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -7.16%E -3.05%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -9.42%E -2.77%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-06 17:20
Sky Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.44%EV -8.60%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -1.43%E -0.387%K -0.530%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-06 17:25
Bet Right2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.09%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-06 17:40
PointsBet (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.09%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-06 17:40
Unibet (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.76%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-06 17:00
Winamax (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -8.60%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -4.09%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-06 17:01
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.76%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 17:25
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.76%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 17:25
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -6.90%E -2.51%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.76%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 16:50
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.42%E -2.77%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-06 17:25
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.42%E -2.77%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-06 17:24
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.42%E -2.77%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-06 17:25
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -5.21%E -1.86%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.42%E -2.77%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-06 17:25
Bet Victor2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.60%E -3.18%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -6.76%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-06 17:20
NetBet (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.40%EV -9.14%E -3.97%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 33.94%EV -9.61%E -3.60%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.42%E -2.77%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-06 17:40
Winamax (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.13%EV -11.11%E -4.94%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.07%EV -10.29%E -3.88%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -6.76%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-06 17:01
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 38.08%EV -11.11%E -4.94%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.28%EV -15.37%E -6.15%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -17.42%E -5.62%K -8.29%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-06 17:40
BoyleSports2.20I 45.45%NM 40.41%EV -13.09%E -5.95%K -10.90%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.19%EV -11.98%E -4.61%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.40%EV -6.76%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-06 17:30
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.52I 39.68%NM 39.54%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.89%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.57%0.4%2026-04-06 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.73%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49%0.7%2026-04-06 17:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.73%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49%0.7%2026-04-06 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.73%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49%0.7%2026-04-06 17:30
Smarkets2.48I 40.32%NM 39.69%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.60%1.6%2026-04-06 17:40
Kalshi2.50I 40.00%NM 39.22%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.28%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-04-06 17:30