La scuola delle quote

Arouca v Benfica

Inizio: 2026-03-14 20:30 UTC

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

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58 bookmaker (20 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: IQM

Arouca (Casa)

Previsione 10.02%9.98quota equa
EV +5.21%
Vantaggio +0.496%
Kelly +0.548%
Crescita +0.029%

ipotizzando la quota massima 10.50

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
8.68%10.17%9.91%11.65%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
8.009.249.5010.5012.50%10.83%10.53%9.52%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Benfica (Trasferta)

Previsione 73.29%1.36quota equa
EV -2.52%
Vantaggio -1.90%
Kelly -7.64%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.33

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
70.60%73.25%73.44%75.13%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.201.271.281.3383.33%78.55%78.13%75.19%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Pareggio

Previsione 16.69%5.99quota equa
EV +4.30%
Vantaggio +0.688%
Kelly +0.819%
Crescita +0.035%

ipotizzando la quota massima 6.25

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
15.27%16.57%16.65%19.27%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
4.505.575.506.2522.22%17.95%18.18%16.00%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Quote dei bookmaker (58 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggio ▼MargineAggiornamento
Pinnacle10.14I 9.86%NM 9.48%EV +1.60%E +0.158%K +0.175%G +0.003%1.28I 78.13%NM 75.13%EV -6.19%E -4.83%K -22.09%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.39%EV +4.30%E +0.688%K +0.819%G +0.035%4.0%2026-03-14 20:25
LowVig.ag10.00I 10.00%NM 9.60%EV +0.199%E +0.020%K +0.022%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 75.03%EV -6.19%E -4.83%K -22.09%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.37%EV +4.30%E +0.688%K +0.819%G +0.035%4.1%2026-03-14 20:20
BetOnline.ag10.00I 10.00%NM 9.60%EV +0.199%E +0.020%K +0.022%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 75.03%EV -6.19%E -4.83%K -22.09%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.37%EV +4.30%E +0.688%K +0.819%G +0.035%4.1%2026-03-14 20:20
Tipico (DE)9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -8.38%E -6.71%K -33.54%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV +0.126%E +0.021%K +0.025%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 19:50
Sky Bet9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -10.58%E -8.67%K -48.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV +0.126%E +0.021%K +0.025%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-14 20:25
Betclic (FR)9.50I 10.53%NM 10.03%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.83%EV -5.45%E -4.23%K -18.80%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.14%EV -1.54%E -0.262%K -0.315%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 14:14
FanDuel9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.59%EV -9.12%E -7.35%K -37.99%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.68%EV -1.54%E -0.262%K -0.315%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 20:19
Winamax (DE)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -19.84%E -2.48%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.78%EV -6.92%E -5.45%K -25.62%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.67%EV -1.54%E -0.262%K -0.315%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 20:25
1xBet9.45I 10.58%NM 10.26%EV -5.31%E -0.562%K -0.629%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.93%EV -2.52%E -1.90%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.77I 17.33%NM 16.81%EV -3.71%E -0.643%K -0.778%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-14 20:25
Coral8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -14.83%E -1.74%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.06%EV -2.52%E -1.90%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -4.05%E -0.704%K -0.852%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 15:10
Fanatics9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV -9.82%E -1.09%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.12%EV -5.45%E -4.23%K -18.80%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -4.05%E -0.704%K -0.852%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 19:40
DraftKings9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV -9.82%E -1.09%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.12%EV -5.45%E -4.23%K -18.80%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -4.05%E -0.704%K -0.852%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 19:30
Bovada9.25I 10.81%NM 10.11%EV -7.32%E -0.791%K -0.887%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.63%EV -6.92%E -5.45%K -25.62%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.26%EV -4.05%E -0.704%K -0.852%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-14 20:15
BetUS9.25I 10.81%NM 10.11%EV -7.32%E -0.791%K -0.887%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.63%EV -6.92%E -5.45%K -25.62%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.26%EV -4.05%E -0.704%K -0.852%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-14 19:40
Marathon Bet9.70I 10.31%NM 9.62%EV -2.81%E -0.289%K -0.323%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.02%EV -7.65%E -6.07%K -29.43%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.36%EV -4.88%E -0.856%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 19:45
ATG (SE)10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV +0.199%E +0.020%K +0.022%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.72%EV -6.19%E -4.83%K -22.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.85%EV -6.55%E -1.17%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 20:10
Svenska Spel10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV +0.199%E +0.020%K +0.022%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.72%EV -6.19%E -4.83%K -22.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.85%EV -6.55%E -1.17%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 20:10
Casumo9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.50%EV -6.92%E -5.45%K -25.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -6.55%E -1.17%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 20:10
Grosvenor9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.50%EV -6.92%E -5.45%K -25.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -6.55%E -1.17%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 20:10
TABtouch9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.50%EV -6.92%E -5.45%K -25.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -6.55%E -1.17%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 20:10
BetRivers9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.50%EV -6.92%E -5.45%K -25.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -6.55%E -1.17%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 20:10
betPARX9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.50%EV -6.92%E -5.45%K -25.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -6.55%E -1.17%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 20:10
Bally Bet9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.50%EV -6.92%E -5.45%K -25.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -6.55%E -1.17%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 20:10
Winamax (FR)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -19.84%E -2.48%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.02%EV -6.19%E -4.83%K -22.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.46%EV -6.55%E -1.17%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-14 14:15
PMU (FR)9.50I 10.53%NM 9.42%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.59%EV -12.05%E -10.04%K -60.25%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.98%EV -6.55%E -1.17%K -1.42%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-14 20:25
Coolbet10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV +0.199%E +0.020%K +0.022%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.19%EV -4.72%E -3.63%K -15.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.30%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 19:35
Ladbrokes (UK)8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV -14.83%E -1.74%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -2.52%E -1.90%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 15:15
Unibet (UK)9.50I 10.53%NM 9.91%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.97%EV -5.45%E -4.23%K -18.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 20:25
BetMGM8.25I 12.12%NM 11.37%EV -17.34%E -2.10%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -3.99%E -3.04%K -12.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 15:14
Mr Green (SE)9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV -9.82%E -1.09%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.58%EV -5.45%E -4.23%K -18.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-14 20:00
Betr (AU)9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.13%EV -6.19%E -4.83%K -22.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-14 20:25
Everygame9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.13%EV -6.19%E -4.83%K -22.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-14 19:29
Betway8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -14.83%E -1.74%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.13%EV -5.45%E -4.23%K -18.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 19:39
888sport8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -14.83%E -1.74%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.13%EV -5.45%E -4.23%K -18.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 20:25
William Hill8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -14.83%E -1.74%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.13%EV -5.45%E -4.23%K -18.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 20:25
888sport (SE)8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -14.83%E -1.74%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.13%EV -5.45%E -4.23%K -18.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 20:25
BoyleSports8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -14.83%E -1.74%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.13%EV -5.45%E -4.23%K -18.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 20:20
Parions Sport (FR)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -19.84%E -2.48%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -4.72%E -3.63%K -15.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 20:05
Unibet9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.44%EV -7.65%E -6.07%K -29.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 20:10
Unibet (NL)9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.44%EV -7.65%E -6.07%K -29.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 20:10
Unibet (SE)9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.44%EV -7.65%E -6.07%K -29.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 20:10
LeoVegas (SE)9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -8.38%E -6.71%K -33.54%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 20:10
LiveScore Bet9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -8.38%E -6.71%K -33.54%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 20:10
SportsBet10.50I 9.52%NM 8.68%EV +5.21%E +0.496%K +0.548%G +0.029%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.74%EV -10.58%E -8.67%K -48.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-14 20:25
Paddy Power10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV +0.199%E +0.020%K +0.022%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -10.58%E -8.67%K -48.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 20:25
NetBet (FR)8.75I 11.43%NM 10.37%EV -12.33%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.14%EV -9.12%E -7.35%K -37.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.49%EV -8.22%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-14 20:23
Betsson9.80I 10.20%NM 9.50%EV -1.80%E -0.184%K -0.205%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.27%EV -6.92%E -5.45%K -25.62%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.23%EV -9.89%E -1.83%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 20:20
NordicBet9.80I 10.20%NM 9.50%EV -1.80%E -0.184%K -0.205%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.27%EV -6.92%E -5.45%K -25.62%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.23%EV -9.89%E -1.83%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 20:20
Virgin Bet9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.52%EV -9.12%E -7.35%K -37.99%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -9.89%E -1.83%K -2.25%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-14 20:10
GTbets8.90I 11.24%NM 10.41%EV -10.82%E -1.22%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%EV -6.19%E -4.83%K -22.09%G +0.000%5.37I 18.62%NM 17.25%EV -10.39%E -1.93%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-14 18:45
LeoVegas9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -9.82%E -1.09%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 73.06%EV -9.85%E -8.01%K -42.83%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.96%EV -11.56%E -2.18%K -2.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-14 20:10
Ladbrokes (AU)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -19.84%E -2.48%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.60%EV -3.25%E -2.47%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -12.39%E -2.36%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 15:15
Neds8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -19.84%E -2.48%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.60%EV -3.25%E -2.47%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -12.39%E -2.36%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 15:10
Bet Right9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.54%EV -6.19%E -4.83%K -22.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -12.39%E -2.36%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-14 20:25
PointsBet (AU)9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.54%EV -6.19%E -4.83%K -22.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -12.39%E -2.36%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-14 20:25
PlayUp9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV -9.82%E -1.09%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.15%EV -6.19%E -4.83%K -22.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.59%EV -12.39%E -2.36%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-14 19:40
Bet Victor9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -4.81%E -0.506%K -0.566%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.01%EV -8.38%E -6.71%K -33.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.38%EV -12.39%E -2.36%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-14 20:18
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)9.00I 11.11%NM 9.64%EV -9.82%E -1.09%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 71.09%EV -10.58%E -8.67%K -48.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.27%EV -24.91%E -5.53%K -7.12%G +0.000%15.3%2026-03-14 20:20
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (6)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Betfair Exchange (AU)12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26%1.30I 76.92%NM 76.25%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.49%0.9%2026-03-14 20:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26%1.30I 76.92%NM 76.25%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.49%0.9%2026-03-14 20:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26%1.30I 76.92%NM 76.25%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.49%0.9%2026-03-14 20:25
Matchbook12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26%1.30I 76.92%NM 76.25%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.49%0.9%2026-03-14 20:20
Kalshi10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83%1.32I 75.76%NM 74.45%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.72%1.8%2026-03-14 20:25
Smarkets11.49I 8.70%NM 8.55%1.29I 77.52%NM 76.11%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.34%1.8%2026-03-14 20:20