Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alverca v Sporting Lisbon

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alverca (Local)

Prediction 9.29%10.77fair odd
EV +18.87%
Edge +1.47%
Kelly +1.60%
Growth +0.302%

assuming max odds 12.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.61%9.41%9.30%11.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.7410.0012.8012.50%10.27%10.00%7.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sporting Lisbon (Visit)

Prediction 74.47%1.34fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -2.46%
Kelly -10.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.45%74.41%74.34%77.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.261.261.3083.33%79.63%79.37%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.25%6.16fair odd
EV +9.17%
Edge +1.36%
Kelly +1.60%
Growth +0.147%

assuming max odds 6.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.33%16.18%16.36%19.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.745.756.7222.22%17.42%17.39%14.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alverca (Local): 9.29%; Sporting Lisbon (Visit): 74.47%; Draw: 16.25%. For Alverca (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.77. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.87%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯12.80I 7.81%NM 7.61%EV +18.87%E +1.47%K +1.60%G +0.302%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.90%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%6.72I 14.88%NM 14.49%EV +9.17%E +1.36%K +1.60%G +0.147%2.7%2026-03-22 17:50
Coolbet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +2.16%E +0.196%K +0.216%G +0.005%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.83%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.53%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 17:49
Tipico (DE)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV +2.16%E +0.196%K +0.216%G +0.005%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.47%EV -9.15%E -7.50%K -41.59%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.05%EV +0.720%E +0.116%K +0.138%G +0.001%7.2%2026-03-22 17:15
Bet Right🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +2.16%E +0.196%K +0.216%G +0.005%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 17:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +2.16%E +0.196%K +0.216%G +0.005%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 17:50
SportsBet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +2.16%E +0.196%K +0.216%G +0.005%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -9.15%E -7.50%K -41.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -2.53%E -0.422%K -0.506%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 17:50
Paddy Power🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +2.16%E +0.196%K +0.216%G +0.005%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -9.15%E -7.50%K -41.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -2.53%E -0.422%K -0.506%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 17:49
Pinnacle🎯10.83I 9.23%NM 8.87%EV +0.576%E +0.053%K +0.059%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.62%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%6.19I 16.16%NM 15.51%EV +0.557%E +0.090%K +0.107%G +0.001%4.1%2026-03-22 17:45
BetOnline.ag🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.19%EV -2.49%E -0.237%K -0.262%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 75.37%EV -4.68%E -3.66%K -16.72%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.44%EV +1.53%E +0.245%K +0.292%G +0.004%3.6%2026-03-22 13:29
LowVig.ag🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.19%EV -2.49%E -0.237%K -0.262%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 75.37%EV -4.68%E -3.66%K -16.72%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.44%EV +1.53%E +0.245%K +0.292%G +0.004%3.6%2026-03-22 13:30
Betr (AU)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.95%EV -2.49%E -0.237%K -0.262%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.97%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 17:50
NordicBet🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.92%EV -2.49%E -0.237%K -0.262%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.74%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -12.28%E -2.27%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 17:54
Betsson🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.92%EV -2.49%E -0.237%K -0.262%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.74%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -12.28%E -2.27%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 17:54
Bet Victor🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.68%EV -2.49%E -0.237%K -0.262%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.74%EV -9.15%E -7.50%K -41.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-22 17:53
DraftKings🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -6.17%E -4.90%K -23.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -2.53%E -0.422%K -0.506%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 10:59
Unibet (UK)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-22 17:55
Fanatics🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-22 17:05
Bovada🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -2.53%E -0.422%K -0.506%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 17:54
Everygame🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -2.53%E -0.422%K -0.506%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 13:29
BetUS🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -2.53%E -0.422%K -0.506%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 17:54
William Hill🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.60%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV -5.78%E -0.996%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 17:49
Sky Bet🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -9.15%E -7.50%K -41.59%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV +5.59%E +0.861%K +1.02%G +0.057%7.4%2026-03-22 12:00
888sport🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 17:50
PlayUp🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 17:55
Betway🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-22 17:50
FanDuel🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.60%EV -9.89%E -8.18%K -47.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -2.53%E -0.422%K -0.506%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 17:49
PMU (FR)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.04%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.36%EV -10.64%E -8.87%K -53.19%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.59%EV -5.78%E -0.996%K -1.20%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-22 17:19
Marathon Bet🎯9.90I 10.10%NM 9.42%EV -8.06%E -0.814%K -0.906%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 15.95%EV -4.97%E -0.849%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 17:49
NetBet (FR)🎯9.75I 10.26%NM 9.29%EV -9.45%E -0.970%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.24%EV -9.15%E -7.50%K -41.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.47%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-22 17:54
Svenska Spel🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV -11.78%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.67%EV -4.68%E -3.66%K -16.72%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 14:15
ATG (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV -11.78%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.67%EV -4.68%E -3.66%K -16.72%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 14:15
Betclic (FR)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV -11.78%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.28%EV -6.17%E -4.90%K -23.73%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -4.15%E -0.704%K -0.848%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 17:53
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.18%EV -11.78%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 71.45%EV -9.15%E -7.50%K -41.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.37%EV -26.90%E -5.98%K -7.68%G +0.000%14.7%2026-03-22 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.96%EV -3.19%E -2.46%K -10.64%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.50%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-22 10:59
Coral🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.96%EV -3.19%E -2.46%K -10.64%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.50%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-22 10:59
Casumo🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.10%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.58%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 17:30
Grosvenor🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.10%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.58%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 17:30
Bally Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.10%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.58%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 17:30
betPARX🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.10%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.58%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 17:30
Unibet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.26%EV -6.17%E -4.90%K -23.73%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 17:05
TABtouch🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.26%EV -6.17%E -4.90%K -23.73%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 17:30
BetRivers🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.26%EV -6.17%E -4.90%K -23.73%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 17:29
Unibet (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.26%EV -6.17%E -4.90%K -23.73%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 17:05
Unibet (NL)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.26%EV -6.17%E -4.90%K -23.73%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 17:30
LiveScore Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 17:30
BoyleSports🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 14:14
Virgin Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.11%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.36%EV -7.66%E -6.18%K -31.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-22 17:29
LeoVegas🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.96%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.45%EV -9.15%E -7.50%K -41.59%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.59%EV -12.28%E -2.27%K -2.79%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-22 17:30
BetMGM🎯8.75I 11.43%NM 10.75%EV -18.74%E -2.14%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.90%EV -3.94%E -3.05%K -13.57%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-22 11:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯8.60I 11.63%NM 10.78%EV -20.13%E -2.34%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.97%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.26%EV -7.40%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-22 17:54
Neds🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV -21.06%E -2.48%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.20%EV -3.19%E -2.46%K -10.64%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 11:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV -21.06%E -2.48%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.20%EV -3.19%E -2.46%K -10.64%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 10:59
Winamax (DE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.91%EV -21.06%E -2.48%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.62%EV -6.17%E -4.90%K -23.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -2.53%E -0.422%K -0.506%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-22 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.32%EV -25.71%E -3.21%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.06%EV -7.66%E -6.18%K -31.92%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV -5.78%E -0.996%K -1.20%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-22 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.62%1.28I 78.13%NM 77.38%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01%1.0%2026-03-22 17:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.62%1.28I 78.13%NM 77.38%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01%1.0%2026-03-22 17:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.62%1.28I 78.13%NM 77.38%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01%1.0%2026-03-22 17:45
Matchbook13.00I 7.69%NM 7.62%1.28I 78.13%NM 77.38%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01%1.0%2026-03-22 17:45
Smarkets12.50I 8.00%NM 7.90%1.28I 78.13%NM 77.14%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96%1.3%2026-03-22 17:55
Kalshi12.50I 8.00%NM 7.77%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.68%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.56%3.0%2026-03-22 17:55