Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Alverca v Sporting Lisbon

Inicio: 2026-03-22 18:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Alverca (Local)

Predicción 9.29%10.77momio equitativo
EV +18.87%
Ventaja +1.47%
Kelly +1.60%
Crecimiento +0.302%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 12.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
7.61%9.41%9.30%11.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
8.009.7410.0012.8012.50%10.27%10.00%7.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sporting Lisbon (Visitante)

Predicción 74.47%1.34momio equitativo
EV -3.19%
Ventaja -2.46%
Kelly -10.64%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
71.45%74.41%74.34%77.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.201.261.261.3083.33%79.63%79.37%76.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 16.25%6.16momio equitativo
EV +9.17%
Ventaja +1.36%
Kelly +1.60%
Crecimiento +0.147%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.72

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.33%16.18%16.36%19.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.505.745.756.7222.22%17.42%17.39%14.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Alverca (Local): 9.29%; Sporting Lisbon (Visitante): 74.47%; Empate: 16.25%. Para Alverca (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 10.77. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 12.80, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +18.87%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯12.80I 7.81%NM 7.61%EV +18.87%E +1.47%K +1.60%G +0.302%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.90%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%6.72I 14.88%NM 14.49%EV +9.17%E +1.36%K +1.60%G +0.147%2.7%2026-03-22 17:50
Coolbet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +2.16%E +0.196%K +0.216%G +0.005%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.83%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.53%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 17:49
Tipico (DE)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV +2.16%E +0.196%K +0.216%G +0.005%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.47%EV -9.15%E -7.50%K -41.59%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.05%EV +0.720%E +0.116%K +0.138%G +0.001%7.2%2026-03-22 17:15
Bet Right🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +2.16%E +0.196%K +0.216%G +0.005%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 17:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +2.16%E +0.196%K +0.216%G +0.005%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 17:50
SportsBet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +2.16%E +0.196%K +0.216%G +0.005%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -9.15%E -7.50%K -41.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -2.53%E -0.422%K -0.506%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 17:50
Paddy Power🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +2.16%E +0.196%K +0.216%G +0.005%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -9.15%E -7.50%K -41.59%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -2.53%E -0.422%K -0.506%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 17:49
Pinnacle🎯10.83I 9.23%NM 8.87%EV +0.576%E +0.053%K +0.059%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.62%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%6.19I 16.16%NM 15.51%EV +0.557%E +0.090%K +0.107%G +0.001%4.1%2026-03-22 17:45
BetOnline.ag🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.19%EV -2.49%E -0.237%K -0.262%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 75.37%EV -4.68%E -3.66%K -16.72%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.44%EV +1.53%E +0.245%K +0.292%G +0.004%3.6%2026-03-22 13:29
LowVig.ag🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.19%EV -2.49%E -0.237%K -0.262%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 75.37%EV -4.68%E -3.66%K -16.72%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.44%EV +1.53%E +0.245%K +0.292%G +0.004%3.6%2026-03-22 13:30
Betr (AU)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.95%EV -2.49%E -0.237%K -0.262%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.97%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 17:50
NordicBet🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.92%EV -2.49%E -0.237%K -0.262%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.74%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -12.28%E -2.27%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 17:54
Betsson🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.92%EV -2.49%E -0.237%K -0.262%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.74%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -12.28%E -2.27%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 17:54
Bet Victor🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.68%EV -2.49%E -0.237%K -0.262%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.74%EV -9.15%E -7.50%K -41.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-22 17:53
DraftKings🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -6.17%E -4.90%K -23.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -2.53%E -0.422%K -0.506%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 10:59
Unibet (UK)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-22 17:55
Fanatics🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-22 17:05
Bovada🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -2.53%E -0.422%K -0.506%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 17:54
Everygame🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -2.53%E -0.422%K -0.506%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 13:29
BetUS🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -2.53%E -0.422%K -0.506%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 17:54
William Hill🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.60%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV -5.78%E -0.996%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 17:49
Sky Bet🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -9.15%E -7.50%K -41.59%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV +5.59%E +0.861%K +1.02%G +0.057%7.4%2026-03-22 12:00
888sport🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 17:50
PlayUp🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 17:55
Betway🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-22 17:50
FanDuel🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.60%EV -9.89%E -8.18%K -47.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -2.53%E -0.422%K -0.506%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 17:49
PMU (FR)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.04%EV -7.13%E -0.713%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.36%EV -10.64%E -8.87%K -53.19%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.59%EV -5.78%E -0.996%K -1.20%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-22 17:19
Marathon Bet🎯9.90I 10.10%NM 9.42%EV -8.06%E -0.814%K -0.906%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 15.95%EV -4.97%E -0.849%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 17:49
NetBet (FR)🎯9.75I 10.26%NM 9.29%EV -9.45%E -0.970%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.24%EV -9.15%E -7.50%K -41.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.47%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-22 17:54
Svenska Spel🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV -11.78%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.67%EV -4.68%E -3.66%K -16.72%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 14:15
ATG (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV -11.78%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.67%EV -4.68%E -3.66%K -16.72%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 14:15
Betclic (FR)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV -11.78%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.28%EV -6.17%E -4.90%K -23.73%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -4.15%E -0.704%K -0.848%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 17:53
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.18%EV -11.78%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 71.45%EV -9.15%E -7.50%K -41.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.37%EV -26.90%E -5.98%K -7.68%G +0.000%14.7%2026-03-22 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.96%EV -3.19%E -2.46%K -10.64%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.50%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-22 10:59
Coral🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.96%EV -3.19%E -2.46%K -10.64%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.50%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-22 10:59
Casumo🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.10%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.58%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 17:30
Grosvenor🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.10%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.58%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 17:30
Bally Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.10%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.58%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 17:30
betPARX🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.10%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.58%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 17:30
Unibet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.26%EV -6.17%E -4.90%K -23.73%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 17:05
TABtouch🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.26%EV -6.17%E -4.90%K -23.73%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 17:30
BetRivers🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.26%EV -6.17%E -4.90%K -23.73%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 17:29
Unibet (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.26%EV -6.17%E -4.90%K -23.73%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 17:05
Unibet (NL)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.26%EV -6.17%E -4.90%K -23.73%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 17:30
LiveScore Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 17:30
BoyleSports🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -6.91%E -5.53%K -27.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 14:14
Virgin Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.11%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.36%EV -7.66%E -6.18%K -31.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -10.65%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-22 17:29
LeoVegas🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.96%EV -16.42%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.45%EV -9.15%E -7.50%K -41.59%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.59%EV -12.28%E -2.27%K -2.79%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-22 17:30
BetMGM🎯8.75I 11.43%NM 10.75%EV -18.74%E -2.14%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.90%EV -3.94%E -3.05%K -13.57%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%EV -6.59%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-22 11:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯8.60I 11.63%NM 10.78%EV -20.13%E -2.34%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.97%EV -5.43%E -4.27%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.26%EV -7.40%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-22 17:54
Neds🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV -21.06%E -2.48%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.20%EV -3.19%E -2.46%K -10.64%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 11:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV -21.06%E -2.48%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.20%EV -3.19%E -2.46%K -10.64%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -9.03%E -1.61%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 10:59
Winamax (DE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.91%EV -21.06%E -2.48%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.62%EV -6.17%E -4.90%K -23.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -2.53%E -0.422%K -0.506%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-22 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.32%EV -25.71%E -3.21%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.06%EV -7.66%E -6.18%K -31.92%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV -5.78%E -0.996%K -1.20%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-22 17:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.62%1.28I 78.13%NM 77.38%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01%1.0%2026-03-22 17:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.62%1.28I 78.13%NM 77.38%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01%1.0%2026-03-22 17:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.62%1.28I 78.13%NM 77.38%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01%1.0%2026-03-22 17:45
Matchbook13.00I 7.69%NM 7.62%1.28I 78.13%NM 77.38%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01%1.0%2026-03-22 17:45
Smarkets12.50I 8.00%NM 7.90%1.28I 78.13%NM 77.14%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96%1.3%2026-03-22 17:55
Kalshi12.50I 8.00%NM 7.77%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.68%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.56%3.0%2026-03-22 17:55