Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alverca v Santa Clara

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alverca (Local)

Prediction 29.58%3.38fair odd
EV -0.923%
Edge -0.276%
Kelly -0.393%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.70%29.82%29.48%32.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.103.103.3534.72%32.23%32.26%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Santa Clara (Visit)

Prediction 39.00%2.56fair odd
EV +1.39%
Edge +0.535%
Kelly +0.870%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.64%38.80%39.12%40.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.422.402.6045.45%41.36%41.67%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.43%3.18fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -0.830%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.15%31.37%31.40%32.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.942.903.1036.36%34.07%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alverca (Local): 29.58%; Santa Clara (Visit): 39.00%; Draw: 31.43%. For Santa Clara (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.39%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
TABtouch🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -14.23%E -4.91%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV +1.39%E +0.535%K +0.870%G +0.012%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -8.86%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-20 05:40
BetRivers🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -14.23%E -4.91%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV +1.39%E +0.535%K +0.870%G +0.012%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -8.86%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-20 05:40
Unibet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -14.82%E -5.15%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV +1.39%E +0.535%K +0.870%G +0.012%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -9.49%E -3.29%K -5.05%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-20 05:40
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -9.80%E -3.21%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.83%EV -0.558%E -0.219%K -0.360%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.38%EV -8.86%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 15:25
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -9.80%E -3.21%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.83%EV -0.558%E -0.219%K -0.360%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.38%EV -8.86%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 15:25
Coolbet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -6.84%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.07%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.72%EV -5.72%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 15:10
Betr (AU)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -9.80%E -3.21%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.49%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -7.29%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-21 15:10
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -9.80%E -3.21%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.86%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 15:25
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -9.80%E -3.21%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.86%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 15:25
Bet Right🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -9.80%E -3.21%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.86%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 15:10
betPARX🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -9.80%E -3.21%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.86%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 15:25
Bally Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -9.80%E -3.21%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.86%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 15:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -11.27%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -8.86%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-21 14:40
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -11.27%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -9.49%E -3.29%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-21 15:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -11.27%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -9.49%E -3.29%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-21 15:25
1xBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.93%EV -0.923%E -0.276%K -0.393%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.08%EV -3.29%E -1.33%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.99%EV -4.77%E -1.58%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-21 15:20
Pinnacle🎯3.29I 30.40%NM 29.43%EV -2.70%E -0.820%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.04%EV -3.29%E -1.33%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.54%EV -3.52%E -1.15%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-21 15:10
LeoVegas🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.65%EV -11.27%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.08%EV -3.29%E -1.33%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.27%EV -10.43%E -3.66%K -5.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-21 15:25
LiveScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.65%EV -11.27%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.08%EV -3.29%E -1.33%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.27%EV -10.43%E -3.66%K -5.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-21 15:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.65%EV -11.27%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.08%EV -3.29%E -1.33%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.27%EV -10.43%E -3.66%K -5.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-21 15:25
Bet Victor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -14.23%E -4.91%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -4.46%E -1.82%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -8.86%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-21 15:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -12.75%E -4.32%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -4.46%E -1.82%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.96%EV -10.43%E -3.66%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-21 15:25
LowVig.ag🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 29.08%EV -1.81%E -0.545%K -0.780%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.57%EV -4.85%E -1.99%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.35%EV -3.20%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-21 15:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 29.08%EV -1.81%E -0.545%K -0.780%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.57%EV -4.85%E -1.99%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.35%EV -3.20%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-21 15:25
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -5.36%E -1.67%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.67%EV -2.57%E -0.830%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 15:05
GTbets🎯3.22I 31.06%NM 29.28%EV -4.77%E -1.48%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.29%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -5.72%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-21 15:25
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.36%E -1.67%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.72%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 15:25
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.36%E -1.67%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.72%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 15:05
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.36%E -1.67%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -7.29%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 15:05
DraftKings🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.36%E -1.67%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -7.29%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 15:25
Everygame🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -6.84%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -7.29%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 15:10
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -8.32%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -8.86%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 15:20
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -8.32%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -8.86%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 15:19
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -8.32%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -8.86%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 15:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -8.32%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -8.86%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 15:20
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -9.80%E -3.21%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.25%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.86%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-21 15:05
Betsson🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -5.36%E -1.67%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -7.19%E -3.02%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -6.34%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 15:25
NordicBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -5.36%E -1.67%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -7.19%E -3.02%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -6.34%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 15:25
Marathon Bet🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 29.55%EV -6.54%E -2.07%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -7.19%E -3.02%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.23%EV -6.03%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 15:25
Bovada🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.36%E -1.67%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -7.19%E -3.02%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -7.29%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 15:25
BetUS🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.36%E -1.67%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -7.19%E -3.02%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -7.29%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 15:25
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -5.36%E -1.67%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.91%EV -7.19%E -3.02%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.15%EV -9.49%E -3.29%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 15:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.36%E -1.67%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.52%EV -7.58%E -3.20%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -5.72%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 15:05
SportsBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.36%E -1.67%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.96%EV -7.58%E -3.20%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.18%EV -9.80%E -3.42%K -5.24%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-21 15:15
Betclic (FR)🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 30.02%EV -10.39%E -3.43%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.39%EV -7.58%E -3.20%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.59%EV -9.49%E -3.29%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-21 15:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -5.36%E -1.67%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -8.36%E -3.56%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -5.72%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 15:05
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -5.36%E -1.67%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -8.36%E -3.56%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -5.72%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 15:05
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -8.32%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -8.36%E -3.56%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -5.72%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-21 15:05
NetBet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.10%EV -11.27%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.43%EV -8.36%E -3.56%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.47%EV -9.80%E -3.42%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-21 15:25
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.36%E -1.67%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -10.31%E -4.48%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -2.57%E -0.830%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-21 15:25
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.36%E -1.67%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -10.31%E -4.48%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -5.72%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-21 15:25
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.32%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -10.31%E -4.48%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -5.72%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-21 15:15
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.32%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -10.31%E -4.48%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.86%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-21 15:25
PMU (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -8.32%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -12.26%E -5.45%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.00%E -4.29%K -6.67%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-21 15:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.04%EV -12.75%E -4.32%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.39%EV -12.26%E -5.45%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.56%EV -8.86%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.8%2026-02-21 15:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.04%EV -12.75%E -4.32%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.39%EV -12.26%E -5.45%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.56%EV -8.86%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.8%2026-02-21 15:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.95%EV -11.27%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.47%EV -14.21%E -6.46%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.58%EV -13.57%E -4.94%K -7.76%G +0.000%15.2%2026-02-21 15:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook3.50I 28.57%NM 28.48%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.87%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.65%0.3%2026-02-21 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.07%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54%0.6%2026-02-21 15:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.07%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54%0.6%2026-02-21 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.07%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54%0.6%2026-02-21 15:25
Smarkets3.45I 28.99%NM 28.45%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.89%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.66%1.9%2026-02-21 15:25