Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alverca v Casa Pia

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 14:32 UTC

Final: Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alverca (Local)

Prediction 49.13%2.04fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -2.15%
Kelly -4.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.66%49.15%49.11%50.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.901.911.9554.95%52.56%52.36%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Casa Pia (Visit)

Prediction 22.95%4.36fair odd
EV +0.974%
Edge +0.221%
Kelly +0.286%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.34%22.93%23.01%24.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.024.004.4026.67%24.85%25.00%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.92%3.58fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -0.650%
Kelly -0.910%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.72%27.92%27.88%29.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.333.353.5033.33%30.05%29.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alverca (Local): 49.13%; Casa Pia (Visit): 22.95%; Draw: 27.92%. For Casa Pia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.36. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.974%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.21%EV -8.13%E -4.35%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV +0.974%E +0.221%K +0.286%G +0.003%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 14:29
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.81%EV -4.69%E -2.42%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 22.01%EV +0.744%E +0.170%K +0.220%G +0.002%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.17%EV -4.23%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-12 14:29
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.82%EV -8.13%E -4.35%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.52%EV -0.633%E -0.146%K -0.190%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -9.26%E -2.85%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 14:30
SportsBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.95%EV -8.62%E -4.63%K -10.02%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.46%EV -0.633%E -0.146%K -0.190%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.59%EV -9.26%E -2.85%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 14:30
1xBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.72%EV -4.20%E -2.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.50%EV -1.09%E -0.253%K -0.330%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.78%EV -2.55%E -0.732%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-12 14:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -8.13%E -4.35%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -1.32%E -0.307%K -0.400%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:30
GTbets🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.41%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.27%EV -2.24%E -0.526%K -0.687%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 14:29
Bovada🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.44%EV -6.65%E -3.50%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -2.47%E -0.581%K -0.760%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 14:19
Coolbet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.47%EV -4.20%E -2.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.97%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.56%EV -2.28%E -0.650%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-12 14:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -7.64%E -4.06%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 14:28
Everygame🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -6.65%E -3.50%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 14:29
BetUS🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -6.65%E -3.50%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 14:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.44%EV -7.14%E -3.78%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:29
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -9.11%E -4.92%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -10.65%E -3.33%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-12 14:30
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -10.09%E -5.51%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -9.26%E -2.85%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-12 14:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.73%EV -7.64%E -4.06%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.53%EV -4.76%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.74%EV -5.91%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:29
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 14:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.78%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.84%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.78%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.84%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:30
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -4.20%E -2.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 14:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:27
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:29
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:29
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:30
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 14:29
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.65%E -3.33%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 14:29
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.65%E -3.33%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 14:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.65%E -3.33%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 14:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.65%E -3.33%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 14:29
NetBet (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.63%EV -10.58%E -5.81%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -9.26%E -2.85%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-12 14:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 14:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 14:30
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:30
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:30
Bally Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:30
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:30
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 14:30
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 14:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -4.20%E -2.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 14:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -4.20%E -2.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 14:29
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.42%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 14:30
Bet Right🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.42%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 14:29
Unibet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.55%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 14:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.55%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 14:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.55%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 14:30
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.87%EV -8.13%E -4.35%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.43%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.69%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-12 14:28
PlayUp🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.94%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 14:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.33%EV -6.65%E -3.50%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.46%EV -7.14%E -3.78%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-12 14:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.59%EV -7.64%E -4.06%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.73%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-12 14:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.59%EV -7.64%E -4.06%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.73%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-12 14:30
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 14:28
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.03%EV -7.64%E -4.06%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -3.67%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 14:30
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.64%EV -9.11%E -4.92%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -9.26%E -2.85%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-12 14:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.95%EV -8.62%E -4.63%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.28%EV -13.94%E -3.72%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 14:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.66%EV -10.09%E -5.51%K -12.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.26%EV -13.94%E -3.72%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.08%EV -16.24%E -5.41%K -8.12%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-12 14:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.91%0.3%2026-04-12 14:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.66%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-04-12 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.66%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-04-12 14:30
Matchbook2.00I 50.00%NM 49.66%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-04-12 14:30
Smarkets1.99I 50.25%NM 49.34%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.35%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.31%1.8%2026-04-12 14:30
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.60%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%2.0%2026-04-12 14:30