L’École des cotes

Alverca v Casa Pia

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-12 14:32 UTC

Score final : Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Alverca (Local)

Prévision 49.13%2.04cote équitable
EV -4.20%
Avantage -2.15%
Kelly -4.42%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.95

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
47.66%49.15%49.11%50.21%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.821.901.911.9554.95%52.56%52.36%51.28%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Casa Pia (Visiteur)

Prévision 22.95%4.36cote équitable
EV +0.974%
Avantage +0.221%
Kelly +0.286%
Croissance +0.003%

avec la cote maximale 4.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.34%22.93%23.01%24.35%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.754.024.004.4026.67%24.85%25.00%22.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 27.92%3.58cote équitable
EV -2.28%
Avantage -0.650%
Kelly -0.910%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.72%27.92%27.88%29.08%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.333.353.5033.33%30.05%29.85%28.57%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
FanDuel1.87I 53.48%NM 50.21%EV -8.13%E -4.35%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV +0.974%E +0.221%K +0.286%G +0.003%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 14:29
Pinnacle1.94I 51.55%NM 49.81%EV -4.69%E -2.42%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 22.01%EV +0.744%E +0.170%K +0.220%G +0.002%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.17%EV -4.23%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-12 14:29
Paddy Power1.87I 53.48%NM 49.82%EV -8.13%E -4.35%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.52%EV -0.633%E -0.146%K -0.190%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -9.26%E -2.85%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 14:30
SportsBet1.86I 53.76%NM 49.95%EV -8.62%E -4.63%K -10.02%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.46%EV -0.633%E -0.146%K -0.190%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.59%EV -9.26%E -2.85%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 14:30
1xBet1.95I 51.28%NM 49.72%EV -4.20%E -2.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.50%EV -1.09%E -0.253%K -0.330%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.78%EV -2.55%E -0.732%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-12 14:29
Tipico (DE)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -8.13%E -4.35%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -1.32%E -0.307%K -0.400%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:30
GTbets1.92I 52.08%NM 49.41%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.27%EV -2.24%E -0.526%K -0.687%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 14:29
Bovada1.90I 52.63%NM 49.44%EV -6.65%E -3.50%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -2.47%E -0.581%K -0.760%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 14:19
Coolbet1.95I 51.28%NM 49.47%EV -4.20%E -2.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.97%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.56%EV -2.28%E -0.650%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-12 14:30
Unibet (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -7.64%E -4.06%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 14:28
Everygame1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -6.65%E -3.50%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 14:29
BetUS1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -6.65%E -3.50%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 14:29
Marathon Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 49.44%EV -7.14%E -3.78%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:29
Sky Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -9.11%E -4.92%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -10.65%E -3.33%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-12 14:30
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -10.09%E -5.51%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -9.26%E -2.85%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-12 14:30
Betclic (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.73%EV -7.64%E -4.06%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.53%EV -4.76%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.74%EV -5.91%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:29
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 14:30
BetOnline.ag1.92I 52.08%NM 48.78%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.84%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:30
LowVig.ag1.92I 52.08%NM 48.78%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.84%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:30
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -4.20%E -2.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 14:30
Unibet (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:27
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:29
Neds1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:29
DraftKings1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:30
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 14:29
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.65%E -3.33%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 14:29
William Hill1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.65%E -3.33%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 14:30
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.65%E -3.33%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 14:29
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.65%E -3.33%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 14:29
NetBet (FR)1.82I 54.95%NM 49.63%EV -10.58%E -5.81%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -9.26%E -2.85%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-12 14:30
ATG (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 14:30
Svenska Spel1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 14:30
Casumo1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:30
Grosvenor1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:30
Bally Bet1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:30
betPARX1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:30
NordicBet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 14:30
Betsson1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 14:30
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -4.20%E -2.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 14:29
PointsBet (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -4.20%E -2.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 14:29
TABtouch1.92I 52.08%NM 48.42%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 14:30
Bet Right1.92I 52.08%NM 48.42%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 14:29
Unibet1.91I 52.36%NM 48.55%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 14:29
Unibet (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.55%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 14:30
Unibet (NL)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.55%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 14:30
Bet Victor1.87I 53.48%NM 48.87%EV -8.13%E -4.35%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.43%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.69%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-12 14:28
PlayUp1.93I 51.81%NM 47.94%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 14:30
LiveScore Bet1.90I 52.63%NM 48.33%EV -6.65%E -3.50%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 48.46%EV -7.14%E -3.78%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-12 14:30
PMU (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.59%EV -7.64%E -4.06%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.73%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-12 14:29
Virgin Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 48.59%EV -7.64%E -4.06%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.73%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-12 14:30
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 14:28
Winamax (DE)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.03%EV -7.64%E -4.06%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -3.67%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 14:30
LeoVegas1.85I 54.05%NM 48.64%EV -9.11%E -4.92%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -9.26%E -2.85%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-12 14:30
Winamax (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 48.95%EV -8.62%E -4.63%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.28%EV -13.94%E -3.72%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 14:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 47.66%EV -10.09%E -5.51%K -12.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.26%EV -13.94%E -3.72%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.08%EV -16.24%E -5.41%K -8.12%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-12 14:30
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.91%0.3%2026-04-12 14:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.66%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-04-12 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.66%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-04-12 14:30
Matchbook2.00I 50.00%NM 49.66%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-04-12 14:30
Smarkets1.99I 50.25%NM 49.34%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.35%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.31%1.8%2026-04-12 14:30
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.60%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%2.0%2026-04-12 14:30