Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Alverca v Casa Pia

Inicio: 2026-04-12 14:32 UTC

Final: Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Alverca (Local)

Predicción 49.13%2.04momio equitativo
EV -4.20%
Ventaja -2.15%
Kelly -4.42%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.66%49.15%49.11%50.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.821.901.911.9554.95%52.56%52.36%51.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Casa Pia (Visitante)

Predicción 22.95%4.36momio equitativo
EV +0.974%
Ventaja +0.221%
Kelly +0.286%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.34%22.93%23.01%24.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.754.024.004.4026.67%24.85%25.00%22.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.92%3.58momio equitativo
EV -2.28%
Ventaja -0.650%
Kelly -0.910%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.72%27.92%27.88%29.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.333.353.5033.33%30.05%29.85%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Alverca (Local): 49.13%; Casa Pia (Visitante): 22.95%; Empate: 27.92%. Para Casa Pia (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.36. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.40, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.974%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.21%EV -8.13%E -4.35%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV +0.974%E +0.221%K +0.286%G +0.003%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 14:29
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.81%EV -4.69%E -2.42%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 22.01%EV +0.744%E +0.170%K +0.220%G +0.002%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.17%EV -4.23%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-12 14:29
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.82%EV -8.13%E -4.35%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.52%EV -0.633%E -0.146%K -0.190%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -9.26%E -2.85%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 14:30
SportsBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.95%EV -8.62%E -4.63%K -10.02%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.46%EV -0.633%E -0.146%K -0.190%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.59%EV -9.26%E -2.85%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 14:30
1xBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.72%EV -4.20%E -2.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.50%EV -1.09%E -0.253%K -0.330%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.78%EV -2.55%E -0.732%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-12 14:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -8.13%E -4.35%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -1.32%E -0.307%K -0.400%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:30
GTbets🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.41%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.27%EV -2.24%E -0.526%K -0.687%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 14:29
Bovada🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.44%EV -6.65%E -3.50%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -2.47%E -0.581%K -0.760%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 14:19
Coolbet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.47%EV -4.20%E -2.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.97%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.56%EV -2.28%E -0.650%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-12 14:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -7.64%E -4.06%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 14:28
Everygame🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -6.65%E -3.50%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 14:29
BetUS🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -6.65%E -3.50%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 14:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.44%EV -7.14%E -3.78%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:29
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -9.11%E -4.92%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -10.65%E -3.33%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-12 14:30
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -10.09%E -5.51%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -3.62%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -9.26%E -2.85%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-12 14:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.73%EV -7.64%E -4.06%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.53%EV -4.76%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.74%EV -5.91%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:29
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 14:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.78%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.84%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.78%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.84%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:30
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -4.20%E -2.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 14:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:27
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:29
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:29
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 14:30
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 14:29
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.65%E -3.33%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 14:29
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.65%E -3.33%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 14:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.65%E -3.33%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 14:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.65%E -3.33%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 14:29
NetBet (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.63%EV -10.58%E -5.81%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -8.21%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -9.26%E -2.85%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-12 14:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 14:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 14:30
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:30
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:30
Bally Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:30
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:30
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 14:30
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 14:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -4.20%E -2.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 14:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -4.20%E -2.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 14:29
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.42%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 14:30
Bet Right🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.42%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 14:29
Unibet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.55%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 14:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.55%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 14:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.55%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -6.46%E -1.93%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 14:30
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.87%EV -8.13%E -4.35%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.43%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.69%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-12 14:28
PlayUp🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.94%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 14:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.33%EV -6.65%E -3.50%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.46%EV -7.14%E -3.78%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-12 14:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.59%EV -7.64%E -4.06%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.73%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-12 14:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.59%EV -7.64%E -4.06%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.73%EV -11.65%E -3.03%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.86%E -2.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-12 14:30
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 14:28
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.03%EV -7.64%E -4.06%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -3.67%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 14:30
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.64%EV -9.11%E -4.92%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -12.80%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -9.26%E -2.85%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-12 14:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.95%EV -8.62%E -4.63%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.28%EV -13.94%E -3.72%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.11%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 14:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.66%EV -10.09%E -5.51%K -12.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.26%EV -13.94%E -3.72%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.08%EV -16.24%E -5.41%K -8.12%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-12 14:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.91%0.3%2026-04-12 14:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.66%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-04-12 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.66%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-04-12 14:30
Matchbook2.00I 50.00%NM 49.66%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-04-12 14:30
Smarkets1.99I 50.25%NM 49.34%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.35%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.31%1.8%2026-04-12 14:30
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.60%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%2.0%2026-04-12 14:30