Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alverca v AVS Futebol SAD

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alverca (Local)

Prediction 56.24%1.78fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -5.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.81%56.28%56.23%58.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.651.661.7163.69%60.44%60.24%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AVS Futebol SAD (Visit)

Prediction 18.75%5.33fair odd
EV -0.643%
Edge -0.121%
Kelly -0.149%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.59%18.72%18.76%20.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.965.005.3022.73%20.16%20.00%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.01%4.00fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -0.630%
Kelly -0.848%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.96%24.99%25.01%26.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.713.753.9030.30%26.94%26.67%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alverca (Local): 56.24%; AVS Futebol SAD (Visit): 18.75%; Draw: 25.01%. For AVS Futebol SAD (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.33. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.30, with an expected value of -0.643%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.68%EV -3.83%E -2.24%K -5.39%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.46%EV -1.58%E -0.301%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.85%EV -2.46%E -0.630%K -0.848%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-07 15:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.68%EV -3.83%E -2.24%K -5.39%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.46%EV -1.58%E -0.301%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.85%EV -2.46%E -0.630%K -0.848%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-07 15:19
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.43%EV -3.83%E -2.24%K -5.39%G +0.000%5.16I 19.38%NM 18.70%EV -3.27%E -0.633%K -0.785%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.87%EV -2.96%E -0.763%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-07 15:05
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.27%EV -4.39%E -2.58%K -6.27%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -1.58%E -0.301%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.51%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-07 14:33
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.76%EV -4.39%E -2.58%K -6.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.28%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-07 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.57%EV -4.39%E -2.58%K -6.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 14:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -4.39%E -2.58%K -6.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -10.02%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 15:24
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.60%EV -4.95%E -2.93%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -1.58%E -0.301%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.17%EV -4.96%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-07 09:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -4.95%E -2.93%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.63%EV -4.39%E -0.861%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.14%EV -5.46%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 09:36
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.09%EV -4.95%E -2.93%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.95%EV -4.96%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-07 10:00
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.72%EV -4.95%E -2.93%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 14:00
GTbets🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.20%EV -5.51%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.69%EV -5.33%E -1.06%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.11%EV -5.96%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 15:24
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -5.51%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -7.20%E -1.46%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-07 09:29
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -5.51%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -7.20%E -1.46%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-07 09:29
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -5.51%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -5.51%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 14:00
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%EV -5.51%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -10.95%E -2.31%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 15:25
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.15%EV -5.51%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -13.77%E -2.99%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 15:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-07 09:59
Everygame🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-07 15:15
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 15:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -10.95%E -2.31%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 13:30
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -10.02%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 15:24
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -10.02%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 15:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -10.02%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 15:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -10.02%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 15:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.74%EV -6.64%E -4.00%K -10.06%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.47%EV -4.39%E -0.861%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.96%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 14:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.74%EV -6.64%E -4.00%K -10.06%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.47%EV -4.39%E -0.861%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.96%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 14:39
BetUS🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.64%EV -6.64%E -4.00%K -10.06%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.62%EV -5.33%E -1.06%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV -4.96%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-07 15:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.20%E -4.36%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.86%EV -7.20%E -1.46%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -4.96%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 15:24
Casumo🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.50%EV -7.20%E -4.36%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 14:44
Grosvenor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.50%EV -7.20%E -4.36%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 14:45
Bally Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.50%EV -7.20%E -4.36%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 14:44
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.50%EV -7.20%E -4.36%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 14:45
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.71%EV -7.20%E -4.36%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -8.14%E -1.66%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-07 15:09
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.65%EV -7.76%E -4.73%K -12.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 14:25
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.65%EV -7.76%E -4.73%K -12.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 14:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.38%EV -7.76%E -4.73%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -13.77%E -2.99%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.88%EV -8.71%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-07 09:39
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.61%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 14:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.61%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 14:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.61%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 14:44
Unibet (NL)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.61%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 14:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.61%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 14:50
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -8.89%E -5.49%K -14.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -4.96%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 15:20
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -8.89%E -5.49%K -14.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 15:19
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.40%EV -8.89%E -5.49%K -14.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -10.95%E -2.31%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 09:39
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.89%EV -9.45%E -5.87%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV -0.643%E -0.121%K -0.149%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -4.96%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 15:19
SportsBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.10%EV -9.45%E -5.87%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-07 15:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.51%EV -9.45%E -5.87%K -15.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -8.14%E -1.66%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -8.71%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-07 14:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.29%EV -9.45%E -5.87%K -15.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -10.02%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.83%EV -8.71%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-07 15:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.41%EV -10.01%E -6.26%K -16.69%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -0.643%E -0.121%K -0.149%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -2.46%E -0.630%K -0.848%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 15:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -10.01%E -6.26%K -16.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-07 15:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.92%EV -10.01%E -6.26%K -16.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.97%EV -17.51%E -3.98%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.11%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-07 09:39
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.93%EV -11.70%E -7.45%K -20.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.24%EV -8.14%E -1.66%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.83%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 14:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 54.81%EV -11.70%E -7.45%K -20.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.12%EV -15.64%E -3.48%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.07%EV -17.46%E -5.29%K -7.59%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-07 15:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.74%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83%0.7%2026-03-07 15:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.74%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83%0.7%2026-03-07 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.74%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83%0.7%2026-03-07 15:20
Matchbook1.72I 58.14%NM 57.74%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83%0.7%2026-03-07 15:20
Smarkets1.70I 58.82%NM 57.67%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.51%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.82%2.0%2026-03-07 15:20
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 57.92%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.61%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.47%2.2%2026-03-07 14:34