La escuela de los momios

Alverca v AVS Futebol SAD

Inicio: 2026-03-07 15:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Alverca (Local)

Predicción 56.24%1.78momio equitativo
EV -3.83%
Ventaja -2.24%
Kelly -5.39%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.71

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.81%56.28%56.23%58.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.571.651.661.7163.69%60.44%60.24%58.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

AVS Futebol SAD (Visitante)

Predicción 18.75%5.33momio equitativo
EV -0.643%
Ventaja -0.121%
Kelly -0.149%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.59%18.72%18.76%20.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.404.965.005.3022.73%20.16%20.00%18.87%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.01%4.00momio equitativo
EV -2.46%
Ventaja -0.630%
Kelly -0.848%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.96%24.99%25.01%26.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.713.753.9030.30%26.94%26.67%25.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 56.68%EV -3.83%E -2.24%K -5.39%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.46%EV -1.58%E -0.301%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.85%EV -2.46%E -0.630%K -0.848%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-07 15:20
LowVig.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 56.68%EV -3.83%E -2.24%K -5.39%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.46%EV -1.58%E -0.301%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.85%EV -2.46%E -0.630%K -0.848%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-07 15:19
Pinnacle1.71I 58.48%NM 56.43%EV -3.83%E -2.24%K -5.39%G +0.000%5.16I 19.38%NM 18.70%EV -3.27%E -0.633%K -0.785%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.87%EV -2.96%E -0.763%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-07 15:05
Coolbet1.70I 58.82%NM 56.27%EV -4.39%E -2.58%K -6.27%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -1.58%E -0.301%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.51%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-07 14:33
Coral1.70I 58.82%NM 55.76%EV -4.39%E -2.58%K -6.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.28%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-07 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.57%EV -4.39%E -2.58%K -6.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 14:00
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -4.39%E -2.58%K -6.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -10.02%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 15:24
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 56.60%EV -4.95%E -2.93%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -1.58%E -0.301%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.17%EV -4.96%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-07 09:40
Betclic (FR)1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -4.95%E -2.93%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.63%EV -4.39%E -0.861%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.14%EV -5.46%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 09:36
DraftKings1.69I 59.17%NM 56.09%EV -4.95%E -2.93%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.95%EV -4.96%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-07 10:00
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 55.72%EV -4.95%E -2.93%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 14:00
GTbets1.68I 59.52%NM 56.20%EV -5.51%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.69%EV -5.33%E -1.06%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.11%EV -5.96%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 15:24
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -5.51%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -7.20%E -1.46%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-07 09:29
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -5.51%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -7.20%E -1.46%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-07 09:29
Neds1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -5.51%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -5.51%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 14:00
Bet Right1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%EV -5.51%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -10.95%E -2.31%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 15:25
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 55.15%EV -5.51%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -13.77%E -2.99%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 15:24
Unibet (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-07 09:59
Everygame1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-07 15:15
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 15:24
PointsBet (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -10.95%E -2.31%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 13:30
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -10.02%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 15:24
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -10.02%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 15:24
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -10.02%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 15:24
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -6.07%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -10.02%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 15:25
Svenska Spel1.66I 60.24%NM 56.74%EV -6.64%E -4.00%K -10.06%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.47%EV -4.39%E -0.861%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.96%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 14:39
ATG (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.74%EV -6.64%E -4.00%K -10.06%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.47%EV -4.39%E -0.861%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.96%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 14:39
BetUS1.66I 60.24%NM 56.64%EV -6.64%E -4.00%K -10.06%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.62%EV -5.33%E -1.06%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV -4.96%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-07 15:25
Marathon Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.20%E -4.36%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.86%EV -7.20%E -1.46%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -4.96%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 15:24
Casumo1.65I 60.61%NM 56.50%EV -7.20%E -4.36%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 14:44
Grosvenor1.65I 60.61%NM 56.50%EV -7.20%E -4.36%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 14:45
Bally Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.50%EV -7.20%E -4.36%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 14:44
betPARX1.65I 60.61%NM 56.50%EV -7.20%E -4.36%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 14:45
Parions Sport (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.71%EV -7.20%E -4.36%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -8.14%E -1.66%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-07 15:09
TABtouch1.64I 60.98%NM 56.65%EV -7.76%E -4.73%K -12.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 14:25
BetRivers1.64I 60.98%NM 56.65%EV -7.76%E -4.73%K -12.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 14:45
Winamax (DE)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.38%EV -7.76%E -4.73%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -13.77%E -2.99%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.88%EV -8.71%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-07 09:39
Unibet1.63I 61.35%NM 56.61%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 14:49
LeoVegas (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 56.61%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 14:44
LiveScore Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 56.61%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 14:44
Unibet (NL)1.63I 61.35%NM 56.61%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 14:49
Unibet (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 56.61%EV -8.32%E -5.11%K -13.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 14:50
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -8.89%E -5.49%K -14.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -4.96%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 15:20
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -8.89%E -5.49%K -14.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 15:19
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 56.40%EV -8.89%E -5.49%K -14.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -10.95%E -2.31%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 09:39
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 57.89%EV -9.45%E -5.87%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV -0.643%E -0.121%K -0.149%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -4.96%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 15:19
SportsBet1.61I 62.11%NM 57.10%EV -9.45%E -5.87%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -6.21%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-07 15:19
Virgin Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 56.51%EV -9.45%E -5.87%K -15.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -8.14%E -1.66%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -8.71%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-07 14:45
NetBet (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.29%EV -9.45%E -5.87%K -15.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -10.02%E -2.09%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.83%EV -8.71%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-07 15:25
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.41%EV -10.01%E -6.26%K -16.69%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -0.643%E -0.121%K -0.149%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -2.46%E -0.630%K -0.848%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 15:25
PMU (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -10.01%E -6.26%K -16.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -6.27%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-07 15:19
Winamax (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 54.92%EV -10.01%E -6.26%K -16.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.97%EV -17.51%E -3.98%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.11%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-07 09:39
LeoVegas1.57I 63.69%NM 56.93%EV -11.70%E -7.45%K -20.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.24%EV -8.14%E -1.66%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.83%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 14:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 54.81%EV -11.70%E -7.45%K -20.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.12%EV -15.64%E -3.48%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.07%EV -17.46%E -5.29%K -7.59%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-07 15:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.74%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83%0.7%2026-03-07 15:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.74%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83%0.7%2026-03-07 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.74%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83%0.7%2026-03-07 15:20
Matchbook1.72I 58.14%NM 57.74%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83%0.7%2026-03-07 15:20
Smarkets1.70I 58.82%NM 57.67%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.51%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.82%2.0%2026-03-07 15:20
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 57.92%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.61%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.47%2.2%2026-03-07 14:34