Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Widzew Łódź v Lech Poznań

Início: 2026-08-30 18:15 UTC

Final: Widzew Łódź 2–3 Lech Poznań

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

51 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Widzew Łódź (Local)

Previsão 30.52%3.28odd justa
EV +0.709%
Vantagem +0.215%
Kelly +0.308%
Crescimento +0.002%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.93%30.42%30.48%32.19%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.752.983.003.3036.36%33.59%33.33%30.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Lech Poznań (Visitante)

Previsão 43.21%2.31odd justa
EV -3.65%
Vantagem -1.63%
Kelly -2.96%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.23

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
42.01%43.26%43.28%44.96%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.952.132.122.2351.28%46.88%47.17%44.84%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.27%3.81odd justa
EV -1.47%
Vantagem -0.393%
Kelly -0.535%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.72%26.33%26.25%27.51%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.253.493.503.7530.77%28.67%28.57%26.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Widzew Łódź (Local): 30.52%; Lech Poznań (Visitante): 43.21%; Empate: 26.27%. Para Widzew Łódź (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.28. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.30, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.709%.

Odds das casas de apostas (51 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV +0.709%E +0.215%K +0.308%G +0.002%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -11.42%E -5.57%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -10.67%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 18:05
1xBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.27%EV -0.817%E -0.251%K -0.363%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.24%EV -4.94%E -2.25%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.49%EV -9.09%E -2.63%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 18:05
Pinnacle🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 29.69%EV -1.12%E -0.346%K -0.501%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.94%E -2.25%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.58%EV -4.89%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-30 18:10
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -2.34%E -0.732%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -8.04%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-30 18:04
SportsBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.06%EV -3.87%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.01%EV -10.13%E -4.87%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -10.67%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-30 18:05
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.39%E -1.74%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.04%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 02:05
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -5.39%E -1.74%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.51%EV -8.40%E -3.96%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -9.35%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 17:59
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -5.39%E -1.74%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -11.42%E -5.57%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -13.30%E -4.03%K -5.78%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-30 18:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -5.39%E -1.74%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -11.42%E -5.57%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -13.30%E -4.03%K -5.78%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-30 18:05
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -6.92%E -2.27%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -4.94%E -2.25%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -5.41%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 17:55
BetUS🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -6.92%E -2.27%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.72%EV -4.94%E -2.25%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -6.73%E -1.90%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 17:49
BetOnline.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -6.92%E -2.27%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.72%EV -4.94%E -2.25%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -6.73%E -1.90%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 17:50
LowVig.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -6.92%E -2.27%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.72%EV -4.94%E -2.25%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -6.73%E -1.90%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 17:50
Marathon Bet🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 30.48%EV -7.23%E -2.38%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 43.92%EV -8.83%E -4.19%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.60%EV -4.89%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-30 18:05
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -4.94%E -2.25%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -1.47%E -0.393%K -0.535%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-30 14:04
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.41%E -1.50%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 12:25
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.94%E -2.25%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -10.67%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-30 17:50
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.04%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 14:10
Codere (IT)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.85%EV -7.53%E -3.52%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.58%EV -9.35%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 06:20
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.04%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 17:58
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.04%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 18:00
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.04%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 17:55
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -13.30%E -4.03%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 17:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -13.30%E -4.03%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 17:45
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -13.30%E -4.03%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 17:45
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -8.45%E -2.82%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -11.42%E -5.57%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -14.61%E -4.50%K -6.49%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-30 18:05
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -9.97%E -3.38%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.25%EV -3.65%E -1.63%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -4.10%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 18:05
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -9.97%E -3.38%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.25%EV -3.65%E -1.63%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -4.10%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 18:00
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -9.97%E -3.38%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.25%EV -3.65%E -1.63%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -4.10%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -9.97%E -3.38%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.25%EV -3.65%E -1.63%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -4.10%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -9.97%E -3.38%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.25%EV -3.65%E -1.63%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -4.10%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 18:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -9.97%E -3.38%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.25%EV -3.65%E -1.63%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -4.10%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 18:00
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -9.97%E -3.38%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.25%EV -3.65%E -1.63%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -4.10%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 17:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -9.97%E -3.38%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.25%EV -3.65%E -1.63%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -4.10%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 18:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.90%EV -9.97%E -3.38%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.41%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -6.73%E -1.90%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-30 02:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.24%EV -9.97%E -3.38%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.52%EV -11.42%E -5.57%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -10.67%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-30 17:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 30.39%EV -10.89%E -3.73%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.28%EV -11.42%E -5.57%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.33%EV -11.46%E -3.40%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-30 17:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -11.50%E -3.96%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -8.04%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-30 14:05
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -11.50%E -3.96%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.47%EV -8.40%E -3.96%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.67%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-30 17:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -11.50%E -3.96%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.46%EV -11.42%E -5.57%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.82%EV -9.35%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-30 02:00
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.15%EV -12.41%E -4.33%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.56%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.67%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 12:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.15%EV -12.41%E -4.33%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.56%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.67%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 12:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 30.51%EV -12.41%E -4.33%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.35%EV -12.72%E -6.30%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.14%EV -11.98%E -3.58%K -5.10%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-30 18:10
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -13.02%E -4.57%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.33%EV -7.53%E -3.52%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -8.04%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 17:59
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.41%EV -13.02%E -4.57%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.63%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -9.35%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-30 15:20
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -14.55%E -5.20%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.16%EV -8.40%E -3.96%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -9.35%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 18:05
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -14.55%E -5.20%K -8.08%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.37%EV -15.74%E -8.07%K -16.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.72%EV -8.04%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-30 18:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -16.08%E -5.85%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.15%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.66%EV -9.35%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-30 18:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -16.08%E -5.85%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.15%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.66%EV -9.35%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-30 18:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -16.08%E -5.85%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.15%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.66%EV -9.35%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-30 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -16.08%E -5.85%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.15%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.66%EV -9.35%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-30 18:00
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-08-30 18:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.17%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-08-30 18:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.17%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-08-30 18:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.17%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-08-30 18:05
Smarkets◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.18%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.04%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.78%2.3%2026-08-30 18:05
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%3.0%2026-08-30 18:00