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Raków Częstochowa v Motor Lublin
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Raków Częstochowa (Local)
Predicción 52.33%1.91momio equitativo
EV -5.81%
Ventaja -3.23%
Kelly -7.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.80
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.02%52.39%52.29%54.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.631.731.731.8061.35%57.80%57.80%55.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Motor Lublin (Visitante)
Predicción 23.75%4.21momio equitativo
EV +3.31%
Ventaja +0.762%
Kelly +0.989%
Crecimiento +0.033%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.35
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.59%23.69%23.79%25.27%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.503.963.904.3528.57%25.27%25.64%22.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 23.92%4.18momio equitativo
EV -3.12%
Ventaja -0.771%
Kelly -1.02%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.05
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.74%23.92%23.92%25.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.843.804.0527.78%26.07%26.32%24.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Raków Częstochowa (Local): 52.33%; Motor Lublin (Visitante): 23.75%; Empate: 23.92%. Para Motor Lublin (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.21. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.35, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.31%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.93%EV -10.52%E -6.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV +3.31%E +0.762%K +0.989%G +0.033% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-09 16:21 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.93%EV -10.52%E -6.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV +3.31%E +0.762%K +0.989%G +0.033% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-09 16:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.93%EV -10.52%E -6.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV +3.31%E +0.762%K +0.989%G +0.033% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-09 16:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.93%EV -10.52%E -6.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV +3.31%E +0.762%K +0.989%G +0.033% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-09 16:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.93%EV -10.52%E -6.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV +3.31%E +0.762%K +0.989%G +0.033% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-09 16:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.93%EV -10.52%E -6.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV +3.31%E +0.762%K +0.989%G +0.033% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-09 16:16 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.93%EV -10.52%E -6.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV +3.31%E +0.762%K +0.989%G +0.033% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-09 16:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.93%EV -10.52%E -6.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV +3.31%E +0.762%K +0.989%G +0.033% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-09 16:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.46%EV -8.95%E -5.14%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -2.62%E -0.640%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -6.71%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-08 01:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.04%EV -11.04%E -6.49%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -2.62%E -0.640%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -6.71%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-08 20:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.15%EV -12.61%E -7.55%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.06%EV -2.62%E -0.640%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -9.10%E -2.40%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.28%EV -13.66%E -8.28%K -21.01%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.84%EV -2.62%E -0.640%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.88%EV -10.30%E -2.75%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-09 16:16 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 54.58%EV -14.70%E -9.02%K -23.34%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.70%EV -2.62%E -0.640%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%EV -10.30%E -2.75%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-09 16:16 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 54.58%EV -14.70%E -9.02%K -23.34%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.70%EV -2.62%E -0.640%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%EV -10.30%E -2.75%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-09 16:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 54.58%EV -14.70%E -9.02%K -23.34%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.70%EV -2.62%E -0.640%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%EV -10.30%E -2.75%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-09 16:21 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 54.58%EV -14.70%E -9.02%K -23.34%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.70%EV -2.62%E -0.640%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%EV -10.30%E -2.75%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-09 16:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-09 17:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.26%EV -6.85%E -3.85%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -9.10%E -2.40%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-08 20:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -9.47%E -5.47%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -10.30%E -2.75%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-09 17:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -8.42%E -4.81%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.82%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.01%EV -12.69%E -3.48%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-08 20:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -8.42%E -4.81%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.82%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.01%EV -12.69%E -3.48%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-08 20:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.42%EV -9.99%E -5.81%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.04%EV -13.89%E -3.86%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-09 13:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.73%EV -7.38%E -4.17%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -7.37%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 12:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.58%EV -7.38%E -4.17%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.37%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -5.52%E -1.40%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-08 16:03 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -8.42%E -4.81%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -7.37%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-09 12:36 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.15%EV -9.47%E -5.47%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.13%EV -7.37%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.72%EV -12.69%E -3.48%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-08 20:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.76%EV -11.04%E -6.49%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -7.37%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -11.50%E -3.11%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-08 01:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.76%EV -11.04%E -6.49%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -7.37%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -11.50%E -3.11%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-08 01:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 53.35%EV -13.13%E -7.91%K -19.90%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.71%EV -7.37%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.94%EV -11.50%E -3.11%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.43%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.26%EV -7.61%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -3.12%E -0.771%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-08 17:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.05%EV -6.85%E -3.85%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 23.88%EV -7.85%E -2.02%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.07%EV -7.91%E -2.05%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-09 12:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 24.07%EV -8.09%E -2.09%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.19%EV -7.91%E -2.05%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-09 15:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.55%EV -12.09%E -7.19%K -17.77%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.93%EV -8.56%E -2.22%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -13.89%E -3.86%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.81%EV -6.33%E -3.54%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -6.71%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-09 14:26 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.81%EV -6.33%E -3.54%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -6.71%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-09 14:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.25%EV -7.38%E -4.17%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -5.52%E -1.40%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-08 17:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.25%EV -7.38%E -4.17%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -5.52%E -1.40%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-08 17:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -9.10%E -2.40%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-09 09:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.23%EV -7.90%E -4.49%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -6.71%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-09 12:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -8.42%E -4.81%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.10%E -2.40%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-09 12:36 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -8.42%E -4.81%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.10%E -2.40%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-09 12:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -8.42%E -4.81%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.10%E -2.40%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-09 12:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.49%EV -9.99%E -5.81%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -9.10%E -2.40%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-08 20:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -10.94%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -10.30%E -2.75%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-09 12:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -10.94%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -10.30%E -2.75%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-09 12:31 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -10.94%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -10.30%E -2.75%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-09 12:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.28%EV -11.04%E -6.49%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -10.94%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.02%EV -11.50%E -3.11%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-08 20:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.39%EV -12.61%E -7.55%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.64%EV -12.12%E -3.28%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.97%EV -12.69%E -3.48%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-09-09 12:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -8.42%E -4.81%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -14.50%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -4.32%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-09 12:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.50%EV -9.47%E -5.47%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -14.50%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.76%EV -10.30%E -2.75%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-09 12:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.73%EV -11.04%E -6.49%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.13%EV -16.87%E -4.82%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.14%EV -9.10%E -2.40%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-09-08 09:25 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.99% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.51% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.51% | 2.0% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.84% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58% | 3.4% | 2026-09-09 16:31 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.84% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58% | 3.4% | 2026-09-09 17:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.84% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58% | 3.4% | 2026-09-09 16:26 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82% | 4.9% | 2026-09-09 16:50 |