Language:English
Pogoń Szczecin v Wisła Płock
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pogoń Szczecin (Local)
Prediction 49.70%2.01fair odd
EV -5.08%
Edge -2.66%
Kelly -5.58%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.06%49.72%49.69%51.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.831.831.9158.14%54.59%54.64%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Wisła Płock (Visit)
Prediction 23.99%4.17fair odd
EV -0.668%
Edge -0.161%
Kelly -0.213%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.92%24.03%23.99%25.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.853.854.1428.99%25.95%25.97%24.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.31%3.80fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.357%
Kelly -0.487%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.83%26.26%26.32%27.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.483.503.7532.26%28.71%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pogoń Szczecin (Local): 49.70%; Wisła Płock (Visit): 23.99%; Draw: 26.31%. For Wisła Płock (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.17. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.14, with an expected value of -0.668%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.75%EV -5.08%E -2.66%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.06I 24.63%NM 23.41%EV -2.59%E -0.637%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.84%EV -6.86%E -1.94%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-03 15:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.65%EV -5.08%E -2.66%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.01%EV -5.23%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -5.29%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-03 14:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -5.08%E -2.66%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.83%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -7.92%E -2.26%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-03 15:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -5.58%E -2.93%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -4.03%E -1.01%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -5.29%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-03 15:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.61%EV -5.58%E -2.93%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -10.03%E -2.67%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -9.23%E -2.68%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-03 15:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.61%EV -5.58%E -2.93%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -10.03%E -2.67%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -9.23%E -2.68%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-03 15:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.83%EV -6.07%E -3.21%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 4.14I 24.15%NM 23.21%EV -0.668%E -0.161%K -0.213%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.96%EV -2.65%E -0.717%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-03 15:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.74%EV -6.57%E -3.49%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -7.63%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.29%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-03 15:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.74%EV -6.57%E -3.49%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -7.63%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.29%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-03 15:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -6.57%E -3.49%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -10.03%E -2.67%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.23%E -2.68%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-03 15:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -7.07%E -3.78%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -4.03%E -1.01%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -7.92%E -2.26%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-03 15:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.66%EV -7.07%E -3.78%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -6.43%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -7.92%E -2.26%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-03 15:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.00%EV -7.56%E -4.07%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.97%EV -12.43%E -3.40%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -7.92%E -2.26%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-03 15:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.07%EV -8.06%E -4.36%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%EV -1.63%E -0.397%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -3.97%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-03 14:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -8.06%E -4.36%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -10.03%E -2.67%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -1.34%E -0.357%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-03 14:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.06%EV -8.06%E -4.36%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 23.63%EV -5.95%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.31%EV -7.39%E -2.10%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-03 15:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -8.06%E -4.36%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -8.83%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -7.92%E -2.26%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-03 14:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -8.06%E -4.36%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.83%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -10.55%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-03 15:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -8.06%E -4.36%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.83%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -10.55%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-03 15:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -8.06%E -4.36%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.83%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -10.55%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-03 15:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -8.06%E -4.36%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -11.23%E -3.03%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -10.55%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-03 15:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.34%EV -9.05%E -4.95%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -1.63%E -0.397%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -3.97%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-03 14:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.34%EV -9.05%E -4.95%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -1.63%E -0.397%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -3.97%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-03 14:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.34%EV -9.05%E -4.95%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -1.63%E -0.397%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -3.97%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-03 14:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -9.05%E -4.95%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -4.03%E -1.01%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -7.92%E -2.26%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-03 15:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.35%EV -9.05%E -4.95%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -5.23%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -7.92%E -2.26%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 15:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.35%EV -9.05%E -4.95%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -5.23%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -7.92%E -2.26%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 15:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -9.05%E -4.95%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -6.43%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -10.55%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-03 15:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -9.05%E -4.95%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -10.03%E -2.67%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -7.92%E -2.26%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-03 15:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -9.05%E -4.95%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -11.23%E -3.03%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -13.18%E -3.99%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-03 15:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -9.05%E -4.95%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -11.23%E -3.03%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -13.18%E -3.99%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-03 15:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.01%EV -9.55%E -5.25%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -4.03%E -1.01%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.29%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-03 14:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.01%EV -9.55%E -5.25%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -4.03%E -1.01%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.29%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-03 14:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.01%EV -9.55%E -5.25%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -4.03%E -1.01%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.29%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-03 14:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.01%EV -9.55%E -5.25%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -4.03%E -1.01%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.29%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-03 14:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.01%EV -9.55%E -5.25%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -4.03%E -1.01%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.29%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-03 14:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.87%EV -9.55%E -5.25%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -10.03%E -2.67%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -7.92%E -2.26%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-03 15:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.29%EV -9.55%E -5.25%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.47%EV -17.22%E -4.99%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.24%EV -11.86%E -3.54%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-03 15:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 49.27%EV -10.05%E -5.55%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.10%EV -11.23%E -3.03%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.62%EV -11.86%E -3.54%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-03 15:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 48.97%EV -10.05%E -5.55%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 24.42%EV -12.90%E -3.56%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 26.62%EV -12.39%E -3.72%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-05-03 15:13 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 48.95%EV -10.05%E -5.55%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.61%EV -13.62%E -3.78%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.45%EV -11.86%E -3.54%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-03 15:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.10%EV -10.54%E -5.86%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -4.03%E -1.01%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -6.60%E -1.86%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-03 14:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -10.54%E -5.86%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -6.43%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -7.92%E -2.26%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-03 15:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -10.54%E -5.86%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -8.83%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -13.18%E -3.99%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-03 15:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.17%EV -10.54%E -5.86%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.60%EV -10.03%E -2.67%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -14.49%E -4.46%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-05-03 15:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.06%EV -10.54%E -5.86%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.03%EV -13.62%E -3.78%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -18.44%E -5.95%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-05-03 15:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.04%EV -11.54%E -6.48%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -5.23%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -7.92%E -2.26%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-03 14:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.04%EV -11.54%E -6.48%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -5.23%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -7.92%E -2.26%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-03 14:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.17%EV -12.53%E -7.12%K -16.49%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.09%EV -6.43%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -7.92%E -2.26%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-03 14:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 49.98%EV -13.03%E -7.45%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.30%EV -13.62%E -3.78%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.72%EV -10.55%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-05-03 15:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 51.12%EV -13.53%E -7.77%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.10%EV -7.63%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.78%EV -9.23%E -2.68%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-03 14:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.06%EV -14.52%E -8.44%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.11%EV -8.83%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -10.55%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-03 14:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.03%EV -14.52%E -8.44%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.90%EV -13.62%E -3.78%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.07%EV -13.18%E -3.99%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-05-03 15:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.49% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.90% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.61% | 1.6% | 2026-05-03 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.49% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.90% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.61% | 1.6% | 2026-05-03 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.49% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.90% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.61% | 1.6% | 2026-05-03 15:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.04% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.48% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.48% | 1.9% | 2026-05-03 14:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.75% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.78% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47% | 2.1% | 2026-05-03 15:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.03% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78% | 5.2% | 2026-05-03 15:20 |