Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Motor Lublin v Jagiellonia Białystok

Início: 2026-07-31 18:30 UTC

Final: Motor Lublin 1–2 Jagiellonia Białystok

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

53 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Motor Lublin (Local)

Previsão 34.05%2.94odd justa
EV +4.53%
Vantagem +1.48%
Kelly +2.19%
Crescimento +0.099%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.07

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.94%34.07%34.13%34.88%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.502.692.703.0740.00%37.17%37.04%32.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Jagiellonia Białystok (Visitante)

Previsão 39.43%2.54odd justa
EV -3.40%
Vantagem -1.39%
Kelly -2.35%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.45

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
38.42%39.42%39.40%42.22%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.152.342.352.4546.51%42.82%42.55%40.82%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.52%3.77odd justa
EV -0.540%
Vantagem -0.144%
Kelly -0.197%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.83%26.52%26.47%27.71%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.253.483.503.7530.77%28.71%28.57%26.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Motor Lublin (Local): 34.05%; Jagiellonia Białystok (Visitante): 39.43%; Empate: 26.52%. Para Motor Lublin (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.94. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.07, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +4.53%.

Odds das casas de apostas (53 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 30.94%EV +4.53%E +1.48%K +2.19%G +0.099%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -11.29%E -5.02%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.84%EV -6.11%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-31 18:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.34%EV -1.25%E -0.432%K -0.660%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.79%EV -4.19%E -1.73%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.86%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-31 14:19
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.34%EV -1.25%E -0.432%K -0.660%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.79%EV -4.19%E -1.73%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.86%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-31 14:19
BetUS🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.34%EV -1.25%E -0.432%K -0.660%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.79%EV -4.19%E -1.73%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.86%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-31 14:25
Pinnacle🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 34.28%EV -4.32%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.32%EV -3.40%E -1.39%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.39%EV -3.19%E -0.875%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-31 18:25
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -4.66%E -1.66%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-31 14:00
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.73%EV -6.36%E -2.31%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -5.37%E -2.24%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.47%EV -0.540%E -0.144%K -0.197%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-31 14:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.36%E -2.31%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.37%E -2.24%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-31 14:50
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.36%E -2.31%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.37%E -2.24%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-31 17:40
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -6.36%E -2.31%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-31 14:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -6.36%E -2.31%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-31 18:05
NordicBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.98%EV -7.38%E -2.71%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.83%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-31 14:50
Betsson🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.98%EV -7.38%E -2.71%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.83%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-31 14:49
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -5.37%E -2.24%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-31 18:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -5.37%E -2.24%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-31 18:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -5.37%E -2.24%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-31 18:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -5.37%E -2.24%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-31 18:25
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-31 18:25
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-31 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-31 18:24
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-31 18:25
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-31 18:25
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-31 18:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.30%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.24%EV -6.95%E -2.95%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-31 18:24
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.50%E -2.46%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-31 18:24
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 38.94%EV -6.95%E -2.95%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-31 14:54
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.04%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-31 18:25
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-31 18:20
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.48%E -3.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-31 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.48%E -3.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-31 18:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.48%E -3.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-31 18:25
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -9.77%E -3.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.23%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -5.84%E -1.65%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-31 18:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -9.77%E -3.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-31 14:49
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.11%EV -9.77%E -3.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.30%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-31 18:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV -9.77%E -3.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -11.29%E -5.02%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -13.80%E -4.25%K -6.13%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-31 18:08
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.72%EV -10.45%E -3.97%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.19%EV -8.13%E -3.49%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-31 18:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.72%EV -10.45%E -3.97%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.19%EV -8.13%E -3.49%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-31 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.01%EV -10.45%E -3.97%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -12.48%E -3.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-31 18:20
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -10.45%E -3.97%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -13.80%E -4.25%K -6.13%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-31 17:40
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -10.79%E -4.12%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-31 14:20
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -10.79%E -4.12%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-31 18:14
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -10.79%E -4.12%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-31 18:14
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.09%EV -10.79%E -4.12%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.84%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -12.48%E -3.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-31 17:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -11.47%E -4.41%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.34%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-31 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.67%EV -11.47%E -4.41%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.20%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.13%EV -8.50%E -2.46%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-31 18:25
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.37%EV -11.47%E -4.41%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.72%EV -11.29%E -5.02%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -8.50%E -2.46%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-31 17:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -11.47%E -4.41%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -11.29%E -5.02%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-31 14:50
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -11.47%E -4.41%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -11.29%E -5.02%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-31 18:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -11.47%E -4.41%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -11.29%E -5.02%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-31 18:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.97%EV -11.47%E -4.41%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.26%EV -11.29%E -5.02%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -12.48%E -3.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-31 18:04
NetBet (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 33.80%EV -12.49%E -4.86%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.48%EV -13.26%E -6.03%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.72%EV -13.80%E -4.25%K -6.13%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-31 18:19
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.68%EV -13.17%E -5.17%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -11.29%E -5.02%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.01%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-31 18:25
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%EV -14.87%E -5.95%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.42%EV -15.23%E -7.08%K -13.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.83%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-31 14:19
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.92I 34.25%NM 34.03%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.6%2026-07-31 18:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.92I 34.25%NM 34.03%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.6%2026-07-31 18:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.92I 34.25%NM 34.03%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.6%2026-07-31 18:25
Matchbook2.92I 34.25%NM 34.03%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.6%2026-07-31 18:20
Smarkets2.88I 34.72%NM 34.13%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.31%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.56%1.7%2026-07-31 18:25
Kalshi2.86I 34.97%NM 34.28%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.22%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-07-31 18:05