Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Motor Lublin v Jagiellonia Białystok

Inicio: 2026-07-31 18:30 UTC

Final: Motor Lublin 1–2 Jagiellonia Białystok

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Motor Lublin (Local)

Predicción 34.05%2.94momio equitativo
EV +4.53%
Ventaja +1.48%
Kelly +2.19%
Crecimiento +0.099%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.07

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.94%34.07%34.13%34.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.692.703.0740.00%37.17%37.04%32.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Jagiellonia Białystok (Visitante)

Predicción 39.43%2.54momio equitativo
EV -3.40%
Ventaja -1.39%
Kelly -2.35%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.42%39.42%39.40%42.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.342.352.4546.51%42.82%42.55%40.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.52%3.77momio equitativo
EV -0.540%
Ventaja -0.144%
Kelly -0.197%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.83%26.52%26.47%27.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.483.503.7530.77%28.71%28.57%26.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Motor Lublin (Local): 34.05%; Jagiellonia Białystok (Visitante): 39.43%; Empate: 26.52%. Para Motor Lublin (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.94. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.07, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.53%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 30.94%EV +4.53%E +1.48%K +2.19%G +0.099%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -11.29%E -5.02%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.84%EV -6.11%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-31 18:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.34%EV -1.25%E -0.432%K -0.660%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.79%EV -4.19%E -1.73%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.86%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-31 14:19
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.34%EV -1.25%E -0.432%K -0.660%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.79%EV -4.19%E -1.73%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.86%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-31 14:19
BetUS🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.34%EV -1.25%E -0.432%K -0.660%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.79%EV -4.19%E -1.73%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.86%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-31 14:25
Pinnacle🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 34.28%EV -4.32%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.32%EV -3.40%E -1.39%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.39%EV -3.19%E -0.875%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-31 18:25
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -4.66%E -1.66%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-31 14:00
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.73%EV -6.36%E -2.31%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -5.37%E -2.24%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.47%EV -0.540%E -0.144%K -0.197%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-31 14:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.36%E -2.31%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.37%E -2.24%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-31 14:50
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.36%E -2.31%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.37%E -2.24%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-31 17:40
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -6.36%E -2.31%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-31 14:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -6.36%E -2.31%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-31 18:05
NordicBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.98%EV -7.38%E -2.71%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.83%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-31 14:50
Betsson🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.98%EV -7.38%E -2.71%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.83%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-31 14:49
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -5.37%E -2.24%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-31 18:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -5.37%E -2.24%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-31 18:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -5.37%E -2.24%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-31 18:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -5.37%E -2.24%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-31 18:25
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-31 18:25
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-31 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-31 18:24
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-31 18:25
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-31 18:25
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-31 18:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.30%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.24%EV -6.95%E -2.95%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-31 18:24
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.50%E -2.46%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-31 18:24
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 38.94%EV -6.95%E -2.95%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-31 14:54
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.04%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-31 18:25
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-31 18:20
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.48%E -3.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-31 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.48%E -3.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-31 18:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -8.06%E -2.99%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -6.16%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.48%E -3.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-31 18:25
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -9.77%E -3.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.23%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -5.84%E -1.65%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-31 18:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -9.77%E -3.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-31 14:49
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.11%EV -9.77%E -3.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.30%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-31 18:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV -9.77%E -3.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -11.29%E -5.02%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -13.80%E -4.25%K -6.13%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-31 18:08
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.72%EV -10.45%E -3.97%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.19%EV -8.13%E -3.49%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-31 18:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.72%EV -10.45%E -3.97%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.19%EV -8.13%E -3.49%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-31 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.01%EV -10.45%E -3.97%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -12.48%E -3.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-31 18:20
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -10.45%E -3.97%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -13.80%E -4.25%K -6.13%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-31 17:40
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -10.79%E -4.12%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-31 14:20
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -10.79%E -4.12%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-31 18:14
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -10.79%E -4.12%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-31 18:14
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.09%EV -10.79%E -4.12%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.84%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -12.48%E -3.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-31 17:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -11.47%E -4.41%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.34%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-31 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.67%EV -11.47%E -4.41%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.20%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.13%EV -8.50%E -2.46%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-31 18:25
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.37%EV -11.47%E -4.41%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.72%EV -11.29%E -5.02%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -8.50%E -2.46%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-31 17:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -11.47%E -4.41%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -11.29%E -5.02%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-31 14:50
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -11.47%E -4.41%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -11.29%E -5.02%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-31 18:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -11.47%E -4.41%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -11.29%E -5.02%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-31 18:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.97%EV -11.47%E -4.41%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.26%EV -11.29%E -5.02%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -12.48%E -3.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-31 18:04
NetBet (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 33.80%EV -12.49%E -4.86%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.48%EV -13.26%E -6.03%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.72%EV -13.80%E -4.25%K -6.13%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-31 18:19
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.68%EV -13.17%E -5.17%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -11.29%E -5.02%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.01%EV -9.82%E -2.89%K -4.09%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-31 18:25
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%EV -14.87%E -5.95%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.42%EV -15.23%E -7.08%K -13.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.83%EV -7.17%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-31 14:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.92I 34.25%NM 34.03%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.6%2026-07-31 18:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.92I 34.25%NM 34.03%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.6%2026-07-31 18:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.92I 34.25%NM 34.03%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.6%2026-07-31 18:25
Matchbook2.92I 34.25%NM 34.03%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.6%2026-07-31 18:20
Smarkets2.88I 34.72%NM 34.13%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.31%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.56%1.7%2026-07-31 18:25
Kalshi2.86I 34.97%NM 34.28%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.22%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-07-31 18:05