Language:English
Legia Warszawa v Motor Lublin
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Legia Warszawa (Local)
Prediction 63.18%1.58fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -6.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.67%63.15%63.17%65.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.461.461.5373.53%68.51%68.49%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Motor Lublin (Visit)
Prediction 16.41%6.09fair odd
EV +2.57%
Edge +0.410%
Kelly +0.489%
Growth +0.013%
assuming max odds 6.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.25%16.45%16.41%18.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.555.506.2520.83%18.03%18.18%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 20.41%4.90fair odd
EV +0.012%
Edge +0.002%
Kelly +0.003%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.98%20.40%20.42%22.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.364.314.9026.67%22.96%23.17%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Legia Warszawa (Local): 63.18%; Motor Lublin (Visit): 16.41%; Draw: 20.41%. For Motor Lublin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.09. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.57%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.56%EV -5.23%E -3.49%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.25%EV +2.57%E +0.410%K +0.489%G +0.013% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -8.15%E -1.81%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.51%EV -10.29%E -7.24%K -24.49%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -1.54%E -0.256%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.012%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.55%EV -9.65%E -6.75%K -22.45%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -1.54%E -0.256%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -6.11%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.55%EV -9.65%E -6.75%K -22.45%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -1.54%E -0.256%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -6.11%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -9.02%E -6.27%K -20.51%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -1.54%E -0.256%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -11.62%E -2.68%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.83%EV -6.50%E -4.39%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 5.96I 16.78%NM 15.85%EV -2.19%E -0.368%K -0.442%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.32%EV -5.09%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.22%EV -9.02%E -6.27%K -20.51%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.67%EV -3.18%E -0.539%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -6.11%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.64%EV -10.29%E -7.24%K -24.49%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -4.82%E -0.831%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -4.07%E -0.866%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.45%EV -5.86%E -3.94%K -11.97%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -5.64%E -0.981%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.11%EV -4.07%E -0.866%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.50%EV -3.34%E -2.18%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -5.64%E -0.981%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -13.26%E -3.12%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.50%EV -3.34%E -2.18%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -5.64%E -0.981%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -13.26%E -3.12%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.50%EV -3.34%E -2.18%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -5.64%E -0.981%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -13.26%E -3.12%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.50%EV -3.34%E -2.18%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -5.64%E -0.981%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -13.26%E -3.12%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.04%EV -6.50%E -4.39%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -5.64%E -0.981%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -8.15%E -1.81%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.38%EV -9.02%E -6.27%K -20.51%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.87%EV -5.64%E -0.981%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -10.19%E -2.32%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-23 15:28 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.55%EV -6.50%E -4.39%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 5.61I 17.83%NM 16.50%EV -7.94%E -1.41%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.42I 22.62%NM 20.95%EV -9.79%E -2.21%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -4.60%E -3.05%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -8.10%E -1.45%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -14.28%E -3.40%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -4.60%E -3.05%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -8.10%E -1.45%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -14.28%E -3.40%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-23 15:22 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -4.60%E -3.05%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -8.10%E -1.45%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -14.28%E -3.40%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -4.60%E -3.05%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -8.10%E -1.45%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -14.28%E -3.40%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -4.60%E -3.05%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -8.10%E -1.45%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -14.28%E -3.40%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 63.09%EV -7.76%E -5.31%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -8.10%E -1.45%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -8.15%E -1.81%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-23 15:28 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 63.09%EV -7.76%E -5.31%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -8.10%E -1.45%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -8.15%E -1.81%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.25%EV -8.39%E -5.79%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.38%EV -8.10%E -1.45%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -8.15%E -1.81%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -5.23%E -3.49%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -9.74%E -1.77%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.11%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -5.23%E -3.49%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -9.74%E -1.77%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -8.15%E -1.81%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.72%EV -6.50%E -4.39%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -9.74%E -1.77%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.40%EV -7.13%E -1.57%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.72%EV -6.50%E -4.39%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -9.74%E -1.77%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.40%EV -7.13%E -1.57%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -5.23%E -3.49%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -9.74%E -1.77%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -14.28%E -3.40%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.19%EV -5.86%E -3.94%K -11.97%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -9.74%E -1.77%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.24%EV -16.32%E -3.98%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.19%EV -5.86%E -3.94%K -11.97%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -9.74%E -1.77%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.24%EV -16.32%E -3.98%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.31%EV -8.39%E -5.79%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -9.74%E -1.77%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.26%EV -13.26%E -3.12%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.16%EV -8.39%E -5.79%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.39%EV -9.74%E -1.77%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -14.28%E -3.40%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.15%EV -11.55%E -8.25%K -28.87%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -9.74%E -1.77%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.52%EV -6.11%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -9.02%E -6.27%K -20.51%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -9.74%E -1.77%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -14.28%E -3.40%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -9.02%E -6.27%K -20.51%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -9.74%E -1.77%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -14.28%E -3.40%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -9.02%E -6.27%K -20.51%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -9.74%E -1.77%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -14.28%E -3.40%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -11.55%E -8.25%K -28.87%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -9.74%E -1.77%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -11.62%E -2.68%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.54%EV -14.08%E -10.35%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -9.74%E -1.77%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.50%EV -8.15%E -1.81%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 62.11%EV -14.08%E -10.35%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.36%EV -9.74%E -1.77%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.53%EV -23.46%E -6.26%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 18.4% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.32%EV -7.13%E -4.85%K -15.16%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.69%EV -11.38%E -2.11%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -16.32%E -3.98%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.48%EV -9.02%E -6.27%K -20.51%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.39%EV -11.38%E -2.11%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.13%EV -18.36%E -4.59%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.45%EV -9.65%E -6.75%K -22.45%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.58%EV -13.02%E -2.46%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.97%EV -18.36%E -4.59%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 63.27%EV -14.08%E -10.35%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.24%EV -13.02%E -2.46%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.49%EV -14.28%E -3.40%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.76%EV -6.50%E -4.39%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -13.85%E -2.64%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV -3.05%E -0.642%K -0.813%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 62.79%EV -10.92%E -7.74%K -26.63%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.86%EV -13.85%E -2.64%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.35%EV -11.21%E -2.58%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-05-23 15:28 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.36%EV -7.76%E -5.31%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.85%EV -16.31%E -3.20%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -6.11%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 62.52%EV -12.18%E -8.76%K -31.23%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.04%EV -16.31%E -3.20%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.45%EV -13.26%E -3.12%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.67%EV -6.50%E -4.39%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.96%EV -17.95%E -3.59%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.38%EV -14.28%E -3.40%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.67%EV -6.50%E -4.39%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.96%EV -17.95%E -3.59%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.38%EV -14.28%E -3.40%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.37%EV -11.55%E -8.25%K -28.87%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.46%EV -17.95%E -3.59%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.17%EV -11.62%E -2.68%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.33%EV -9.65%E -6.75%K -22.45%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.27%EV -21.23%E -4.42%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.40%EV -12.23%E -2.85%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.67% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.39% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.94% | 1.5% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.42% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.33% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.24% | 1.9% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.82% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.32% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.86% | 2.0% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.82% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.32% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.86% | 2.0% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.73% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.68% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.59% | 2.1% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.16% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.55% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.29% | 3.7% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |