Language:English
Lechia Gdańsk v Legia Warszawa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lechia Gdańsk (Local)
Prediction 35.54%2.81fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.823%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.24%35.46%35.63%36.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.602.602.7541.67%38.41%38.46%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Legia Warszawa (Visit)
Prediction 37.23%2.69fair odd
EV -1.71%
Edge -0.649%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.21%37.27%37.17%38.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.442.442.6443.48%41.00%40.98%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.23%3.67fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -0.548%
Kelly -0.758%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.10%27.26%27.20%28.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.363.403.6033.33%29.80%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lechia Gdańsk (Local): 35.54%; Legia Warszawa (Visit): 37.23%; Draw: 27.23%. For Legia Warszawa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.69. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.64, with an expected value of -1.71%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -2.26%E -0.823%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -8.79%E -3.59%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -6.06%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-10 15:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -2.26%E -0.823%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -8.79%E -3.59%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -6.06%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-10 15:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -2.26%E -0.823%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -8.79%E -3.59%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -6.06%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-10 15:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -2.26%E -0.823%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -8.79%E -3.59%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -6.06%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-10 15:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.65%EV -4.04%E -1.50%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.46%EV -1.71%E -0.649%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.90%EV -6.06%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.34%EV -4.04%E -1.50%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.16%EV -6.93%E -2.77%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -1.97%E -0.548%K -0.758%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-17 04:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -4.04%E -1.50%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.08%EV -6.18%E -2.45%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -10.14%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-17 05:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -4.04%E -1.50%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.08%EV -6.18%E -2.45%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -10.14%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-17 05:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.42%EV -4.04%E -1.50%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.25%EV -9.53%E -3.92%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.42%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-10 15:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.42%EV -4.04%E -1.50%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.25%EV -9.53%E -3.92%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.42%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-10 15:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.42%EV -4.04%E -1.50%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.25%EV -9.53%E -3.92%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.42%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-10 15:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.42%EV -4.04%E -1.50%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.25%EV -9.53%E -3.92%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.42%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-10 15:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.42%EV -4.04%E -1.50%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.25%EV -9.53%E -3.92%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.42%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-10 15:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -4.04%E -1.50%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -10.65%E -4.44%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -7.42%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-17 06:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -5.82%E -2.20%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.02%EV -5.06%E -1.99%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.36%EV -6.06%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -5.82%E -2.20%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -8.79%E -3.59%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -1.97%E -0.548%K -0.758%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-17 04:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.43%EV -5.82%E -2.20%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.34%EV -11.39%E -4.79%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.24%EV -8.78%E -2.62%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-10 15:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.43%EV -5.82%E -2.20%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.34%EV -11.39%E -4.79%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.24%EV -8.78%E -2.62%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-10 15:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.29%EV -6.53%E -2.48%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.38%EV -12.51%E -5.32%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -10.14%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-10 15:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.60%E -2.92%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -6.93%E -2.77%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -6.06%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -7.60%E -2.92%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -6.93%E -2.77%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -7.42%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-17 07:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.60%E -2.92%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 36.62%EV -5.81%E -2.30%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.74%EV -9.05%E -2.71%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.60%E -2.92%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 36.62%EV -5.81%E -2.30%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.74%EV -9.05%E -2.71%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.60%E -2.92%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -10.65%E -4.44%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-17 04:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.60%E -2.92%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -10.65%E -4.44%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-17 04:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -7.60%E -2.92%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -6.93%E -2.77%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -10.14%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -7.60%E -2.92%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -10.65%E -4.44%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -7.42%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-17 05:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -7.60%E -2.92%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.25%EV -8.79%E -3.59%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -10.14%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-17 08:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -7.60%E -2.92%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.93%E -2.77%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -12.86%E -4.02%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -7.60%E -2.92%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.93%E -2.77%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -12.86%E -4.02%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -7.60%E -2.92%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.93%E -2.77%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -12.86%E -4.02%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -7.60%E -2.92%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 38.37%EV -13.63%E -5.87%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -11.50%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-10 15:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.59I 38.61%NM 35.66%EV -7.95%E -3.07%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 36.36%EV -5.44%E -2.14%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -10.14%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 10:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.59I 38.61%NM 35.66%EV -7.95%E -3.07%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 36.36%EV -5.44%E -2.14%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -10.14%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.73%EV -8.31%E -3.22%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.17%EV -7.67%E -3.09%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.42%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.73%EV -8.31%E -3.22%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.17%EV -7.67%E -3.09%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.42%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.94%EV -9.37%E -3.68%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 37.10%EV -8.04%E -3.26%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -7.42%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -9.37%E -3.68%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.29%EV -8.79%E -3.59%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -7.42%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-17 06:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -9.37%E -3.68%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -10.65%E -4.44%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-17 04:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -9.37%E -3.68%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -10.65%E -4.44%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -7.42%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-17 04:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -9.37%E -3.68%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -6.93%E -2.77%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -12.86%E -4.02%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.30%EV -9.37%E -3.68%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.82%EV -11.39%E -4.79%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -8.78%E -2.62%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.56%EV -9.37%E -3.68%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.32%EV -14.37%E -6.25%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.12%EV -11.50%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-17 06:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.15%EV -11.15%E -4.46%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -10.65%E -4.44%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -6.06%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -11.15%E -4.46%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -11.39%E -4.79%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -7.42%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-17 04:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.58%EV -11.15%E -4.46%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06%EV -10.65%E -4.44%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -11.50%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-17 07:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.58%EV -11.15%E -4.46%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06%EV -10.65%E -4.44%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -11.50%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-17 07:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -11.15%E -4.46%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -14.37%E -6.25%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -10.14%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-17 10:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.91%EV -12.93%E -5.28%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.43%EV -12.51%E -5.32%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.66%EV -10.14%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 35.57%EV -13.99%E -5.78%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.10%EV -13.63%E -5.87%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.33%EV -14.23%E -4.52%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.25%EV -14.70%E -6.13%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 36.56%EV -11.39%E -4.79%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.19%EV -12.86%E -4.02%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 35.17%EV -14.70%E -6.13%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 36.70%EV -14.37%E -6.25%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.13%EV -18.31%E -6.10%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 18.5% | 2026-05-17 04:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.36% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.58% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06% | 0.4% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.21% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.44% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.35% | 0.8% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.21% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.44% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.35% | 0.8% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.66% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73% | 1.0% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.06% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.29% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.64% | 1.2% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.97% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.46% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57% | 1.5% | 2026-05-17 10:40 |