La escuela de los momiosLech Poznań v Wisła Płock
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Lech Poznań (Local)
Predicción 69.33%1.44momio equitativo
EV -5.71%
Ventaja -4.20%
Kelly -15.87%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.36
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
67.68%69.43%69.24%73.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.211.311.301.3682.64%76.54%76.92%73.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Wisła Płock (Visitante)
Predicción 13.20%7.58momio equitativo
EV +18.77%
Ventaja +2.09%
Kelly +2.35%
Crecimiento +0.441%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.38%13.10%13.29%14.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.907.467.009.0016.95%13.41%14.29%11.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 17.47%5.72momio equitativo
EV +0.471%
Ventaja +0.082%
Kelly +0.099%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.38%17.48%17.46%19.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.505.255.255.7522.22%19.03%19.05%17.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.12%EV -10.56%E -8.19%K -36.43%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV +18.77%E +2.09%K +2.35%G +0.441% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV +0.471%E +0.082%K +0.099%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-23 15:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.12%EV -10.56%E -8.19%K -36.43%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV +18.77%E +2.09%K +2.35%G +0.441% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV +0.471%E +0.082%K +0.099%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-23 14:59 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.12%EV -10.56%E -8.19%K -36.43%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV +18.77%E +2.09%K +2.35%G +0.441% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV +0.471%E +0.082%K +0.099%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-23 14:59 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.12%EV -10.56%E -8.19%K -36.43%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV +18.77%E +2.09%K +2.35%G +0.441% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV +0.471%E +0.082%K +0.099%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-23 15:00 |
| Casumo | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -11.26%E -8.80%K -40.21%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +18.77%E +2.09%K +2.35%G +0.441% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -2.15%E -0.384%K -0.467%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-23 14:59 |
| BetRivers | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -11.26%E -8.80%K -40.21%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +18.77%E +2.09%K +2.35%G +0.441% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -2.15%E -0.384%K -0.467%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-23 14:59 |
| Grosvenor | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -11.26%E -8.80%K -40.21%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +18.77%E +2.09%K +2.35%G +0.441% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -2.15%E -0.384%K -0.467%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-23 15:00 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -11.26%E -8.80%K -40.21%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +18.77%E +2.09%K +2.35%G +0.441% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -2.15%E -0.384%K -0.467%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-23 14:59 |
| betPARX | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -11.26%E -8.80%K -40.21%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +18.77%E +2.09%K +2.35%G +0.441% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -2.15%E -0.384%K -0.467%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-23 14:59 |
| TABtouch | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.82%EV -12.64%E -10.04%K -48.63%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV +12.17%E +1.43%K +1.62%G +0.198% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.38%EV -2.15%E -0.384%K -0.467%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-23 14:59 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -13.34%E -10.67%K -53.35%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV +12.17%E +1.43%K +1.62%G +0.198% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -3.90%E -0.709%K -0.866%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-23 14:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -13.34%E -10.67%K -53.35%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV +12.17%E +1.43%K +1.62%G +0.198% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -3.90%E -0.709%K -0.866%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-23 15:00 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.92%EV -14.03%E -11.32%K -58.46%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV +12.17%E +1.43%K +1.62%G +0.198% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -3.90%E -0.709%K -0.866%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-23 14:59 |
| LeoVegas | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.02%EV -15.42%E -12.64%K -70.08%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.48%EV +12.17%E +1.43%K +1.62%G +0.198% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.50%EV -5.64%E -1.05%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-23 15:00 |
| Coolbet | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.71%EV -6.40%E -4.74%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.93%EV +5.58%E +0.697%K +0.797%G +0.044% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%EV -3.90%E -0.709%K -0.866%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-23 15:19 |
| FanDuel | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.33%EV -9.18%E -7.01%K -29.61%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV +5.58%E +0.697%K +0.797%G +0.044% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -3.90%E -0.709%K -0.866%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-23 15:19 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.21I 82.64%NM 72.49%EV -16.11%E -13.31%K -76.72%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 10.96%EV +5.58%E +0.697%K +0.797%G +0.044% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.55%EV -7.39%E -1.39%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-23 14:59 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.17%EV -8.48%E -6.43%K -26.51%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -1.02%E -0.136%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.48%EV -7.39%E -1.39%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-23 15:18 |
| betfred_uk | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.79%E -5.86%K -23.61%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -1.02%E -0.136%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.63%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-23 15:19 |
| Bet Victor | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.38%EV -9.87%E -7.59%K -32.90%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -1.02%E -0.136%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -8.27%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-23 14:59 |
| Paddy Power | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -10.56%E -8.19%K -36.43%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -1.02%E -0.136%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -12.63%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-23 15:19 |
| SportsBet | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -11.26%E -8.80%K -40.21%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -1.02%E -0.136%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -12.63%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-23 15:19 |
| Pinnacle | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.61%EV -5.71%E -4.20%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 7.29I 13.72%NM 12.99%EV -3.79%E -0.520%K -0.603%G +0.000% | 5.44I 18.38%NM 17.40%EV -4.95%E -0.909%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-23 15:20 |
| PlayUp | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.91%EV -7.79%E -5.86%K -23.61%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.46%EV -4.32%E -0.596%K -0.691%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.63%EV -19.62%E -4.27%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-23 15:19 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.58%EV -9.87%E -7.59%K -32.90%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.74%EV -4.98%E -0.692%K -0.803%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -3.90%E -0.709%K -0.866%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-23 14:59 |
| DraftKings | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -5.71%E -4.20%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -7.62%E -1.09%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -3.90%E -0.709%K -0.866%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-23 15:09 |
| BetMGM | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.68%EV -7.10%E -5.30%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -7.62%E -1.09%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -3.90%E -0.709%K -0.866%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-23 14:59 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.40%E -4.74%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -7.62%E -1.09%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -8.27%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 15:09 |
| Betway | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.40%E -4.74%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -7.62%E -1.09%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -8.27%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 15:09 |
| Fanatics | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.79%E -5.86%K -23.61%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.16%EV -7.62%E -1.09%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -8.27%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-23 15:09 |
| 888sport | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.71%E -4.20%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -7.62%E -1.09%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -16.13%E -3.36%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-23 15:09 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.71%E -4.20%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -7.62%E -1.09%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -16.13%E -3.36%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-23 15:10 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.71%E -4.20%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -7.62%E -1.09%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -16.13%E -3.36%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-23 15:09 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.84%EV -8.48%E -6.43%K -26.51%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -7.62%E -1.09%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -12.63%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-23 15:19 |
| Sky Bet | 1.29I 77.52%NM 68.82%EV -10.56%E -8.19%K -36.43%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.68%EV -7.62%E -1.09%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.50%EV -16.13%E -3.36%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-23 15:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 68.66%EV -13.34%E -10.67%K -53.35%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.26%EV -7.62%E -1.09%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.07%EV -21.37%E -4.75%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-05-23 15:20 |
| NordicBet | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.11%EV -7.10%E -5.30%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.42%EV -8.94%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.47%EV -7.39%E -1.39%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-23 15:09 |
| Betsson | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.11%EV -7.10%E -5.30%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.42%EV -8.94%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.47%EV -7.39%E -1.39%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-23 15:09 |
| Bovada | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.83%EV -7.79%E -5.86%K -23.61%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.56%EV -10.92%E -1.62%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.61%EV -9.14%E -1.76%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-23 15:19 |
| BetUS | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.83%EV -7.79%E -5.86%K -23.61%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.56%EV -10.92%E -1.62%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.61%EV -9.14%E -1.76%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-23 15:20 |
| 1xBet | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.98%EV -5.71%E -4.20%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 6.64I 15.06%NM 13.92%EV -12.37%E -1.86%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.11I 19.57%NM 18.09%EV -10.71%E -2.10%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-23 15:20 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -5.71%E -4.20%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.04%EV -12.90%E -1.95%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.82%EV -9.14%E -1.76%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-23 15:09 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -5.71%E -4.20%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.04%EV -12.90%E -1.95%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.82%EV -9.14%E -1.76%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-23 15:09 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.46%EV -7.10%E -5.30%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.90%EV -12.90%E -1.95%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.64%EV -9.14%E -1.76%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-23 15:09 |
| Coral | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.49%EV -9.87%E -7.59%K -32.90%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -14.22%E -2.19%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -12.63%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-23 15:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.49%EV -9.87%E -7.59%K -32.90%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -14.22%E -2.19%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -12.63%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-23 15:19 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 68.84%EV -13.34%E -10.67%K -53.35%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.24%EV -14.22%E -2.19%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 17.93%EV -16.13%E -3.36%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-05-23 15:20 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.22%EV -9.87%E -7.59%K -32.90%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.86%EV -15.54%E -2.43%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 17.92%EV -13.51%E -2.73%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-05-23 15:08 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 68.46%EV -11.95%E -9.41%K -44.26%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 13.80%EV -16.86%E -2.68%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.74%EV -14.38%E -2.94%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-05-23 15:20 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.54%EV -7.79%E -5.86%K -23.61%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.58%EV -17.52%E -2.80%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -5.64%E -1.05%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-23 15:08 |
| BoyleSports | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.72%EV -9.87%E -7.59%K -32.90%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.67%EV -20.82%E -3.47%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.61%EV -12.63%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-23 15:20 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.79%EV -9.87%E -7.59%K -32.90%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 14.94%EV -22.14%E -3.75%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.28%EV -10.89%E -2.13%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-23 15:09 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 1.39I 71.94%NM 72.71% | 8.33I 12.00%NM 12.13% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 15.15% | -1.1% | 2026-05-23 15:09 |
| Matchbook | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.91% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.28% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.82% | 0.8% | 2026-05-23 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.51% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.47% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.01% | 1.3% | 2026-05-23 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.51% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.47% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.01% | 1.3% | 2026-05-23 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.51% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.47% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.01% | 1.3% | 2026-05-23 15:20 |
| Smarkets | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.25% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.62% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.13% | 2.4% | 2026-05-23 15:20 |