Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Jagiellonia Białystok v Widzew Łódź

Início: 2026-08-09 18:15 UTC

Final: Jagiellonia Białystok 0–2 Widzew Łódź

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

53 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Jagiellonia Białystok (Local)

Previsão 37.49%2.67odd justa
EV -2.15%
Vantagem -0.823%
Kelly -1.33%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.61

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
36.14%37.65%37.46%40.46%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.182.402.402.6145.87%41.60%41.67%38.31%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Widzew Łódź (Visitante)

Previsão 33.47%2.99odd justa
EV +2.09%
Vantagem +0.684%
Kelly +1.02%
Crescimento +0.021%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.05

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.50%33.32%33.46%35.09%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.572.802.753.0538.91%35.67%36.36%32.79%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 29.04%3.44odd justa
EV -1.27%
Vantagem -0.374%
Kelly -0.530%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.93%29.04%29.08%30.70%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.903.153.153.4034.48%31.72%31.75%29.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Jagiellonia Białystok (Local): 37.49%; Widzew Łódź (Visitante): 33.47%; Empate: 29.04%. Para Widzew Łódź (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.99. 10 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.05, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +2.09%.

Odds das casas de apostas (53 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.23%EV -13.02%E -5.61%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.60%EV +2.09%E +0.684%K +1.02%G +0.021%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -7.08%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 17:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.23%EV -13.02%E -5.61%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.60%EV +2.09%E +0.684%K +1.02%G +0.021%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -7.08%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 17:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.23%EV -13.02%E -5.61%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.60%EV +2.09%E +0.684%K +1.02%G +0.021%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -7.08%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 17:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.23%EV -13.02%E -5.61%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.60%EV +2.09%E +0.684%K +1.02%G +0.021%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -7.08%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 17:34
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.44%EV -13.77%E -5.99%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV +2.09%E +0.684%K +1.02%G +0.021%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.08%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 17:35
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.44%EV -13.77%E -5.99%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV +2.09%E +0.684%K +1.02%G +0.021%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.08%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 17:35
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.44%EV -13.77%E -5.99%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV +2.09%E +0.684%K +1.02%G +0.021%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.08%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 17:35
betPARX🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.44%EV -13.77%E -5.99%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV +2.09%E +0.684%K +1.02%G +0.021%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.08%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 17:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.44%EV -13.77%E -5.99%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV +2.09%E +0.684%K +1.02%G +0.021%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.08%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 17:35
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.26%EV -14.52%E -6.37%K -11.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.60%EV +0.414%E +0.138%K +0.207%G +0.001%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -8.53%E -2.71%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-09 17:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.37%EV -15.64%E -6.95%K -12.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -1.26%E -0.427%K -0.646%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -8.53%E -2.71%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 17:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.37%EV -15.64%E -6.95%K -12.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -1.26%E -0.427%K -0.646%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -8.53%E -2.71%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 17:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.37%EV -15.64%E -6.95%K -12.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -1.26%E -0.427%K -0.646%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -8.53%E -2.71%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 17:35
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -10.02%E -4.18%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -2.93%E -1.01%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -4.18%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-09 18:00
Pinnacle🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 36.92%EV -2.15%E -0.823%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.34%EV -3.27%E -1.13%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.74%EV -5.92%E -1.83%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-09 18:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.46%EV -18.27%E -8.38%K -15.48%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.62%EV -3.60%E -1.25%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.92%EV -11.44%E -3.75%K -5.58%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-09 17:35
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.76%EV -8.15%E -3.33%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.32%EV -4.61%E -1.62%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -1.27%E -0.374%K -0.530%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 17:33
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -4.40%E -1.72%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -4.61%E -1.62%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -9.98%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 17:59
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -10.02%E -4.18%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -4.61%E -1.62%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -5.63%E -1.73%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 17:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -2.52%E -0.970%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -6.28%E -2.24%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -9.98%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 17:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -2.52%E -0.970%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -6.28%E -2.24%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -9.98%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 17:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -8.15%E -3.33%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -6.28%E -2.24%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -9.98%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 17:25
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -10.02%E -4.18%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -6.28%E -2.24%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.98%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 17:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -10.02%E -4.18%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -6.28%E -2.24%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.98%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 17:34
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -10.02%E -4.18%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -6.28%E -2.24%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.98%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 17:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -6.27%E -2.51%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -7.95%E -2.89%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.63%E -1.73%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 18:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.78%EV -5.52%E -2.19%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.70%EV -7.95%E -2.89%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.52%EV -8.82%E -2.81%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 18:05
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -10.02%E -4.18%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.95%E -2.89%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -5.63%E -1.73%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 17:34
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -10.02%E -4.18%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.95%E -2.89%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -5.63%E -1.73%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 17:54
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.65%EV -6.27%E -2.51%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -7.95%E -2.89%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -11.44%E -3.75%K -5.58%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-09 18:00
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -8.15%E -3.33%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -7.95%E -2.89%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -9.98%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-09 18:10
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.28%EV -4.40%E -1.72%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 33.88%EV -8.62%E -3.16%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.84%EV -9.98%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-09 18:09
BetUS🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.28%EV -4.40%E -1.72%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 33.88%EV -8.62%E -3.16%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.84%EV -9.98%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-09 18:10
NordicBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.22%EV -7.02%E -2.83%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.94%EV -8.96%E -3.29%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -7.08%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 18:10
Betsson🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.22%EV -7.02%E -2.83%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.94%EV -8.96%E -3.29%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -7.08%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 18:10
1xBet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 36.44%EV -2.15%E -0.823%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.09%EV -9.29%E -3.43%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.47%EV -3.01%E -0.903%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 18:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.05%EV -7.40%E -2.99%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -9.63%E -3.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV -8.53%E -2.71%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 18:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.39%EV -11.90%E -5.06%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.41%EV -9.63%E -3.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -7.08%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-09 17:34
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -8.15%E -3.33%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -9.63%E -3.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -12.89%E -4.30%K -6.44%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-09 18:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -8.15%E -3.33%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -9.63%E -3.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -12.89%E -4.30%K -6.44%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-09 18:00
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -8.15%E -3.33%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -9.63%E -3.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -15.79%E -5.45%K -8.31%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-09 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -13.77%E -5.99%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -9.63%E -3.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -9.98%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-09 17:20
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -13.77%E -5.99%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -9.63%E -3.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -9.98%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-09 17:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -10.02%E -4.18%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -11.30%E -4.26%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -5.63%E -1.73%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 18:09
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.01%EV -8.15%E -3.33%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -11.30%E -4.26%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -8.53%E -2.71%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 18:10
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.98%EV -11.90%E -5.06%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.68%EV -11.30%E -4.26%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.34%EV -8.53%E -2.71%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-09 17:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.81%EV -11.90%E -5.06%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.53%EV -11.30%E -4.26%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -9.98%E -3.22%K -4.75%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-09 18:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.64%EV -11.90%E -5.06%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.64%EV -11.97%E -4.55%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.72%EV -10.56%E -3.43%K -5.08%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-09 18:10
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -6.27%E -2.51%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -12.31%E -4.70%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -7.08%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-09 18:08
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -6.27%E -2.51%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -12.31%E -4.70%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -7.08%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-09 18:10
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.81%EV -13.77%E -5.99%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.20%EV -12.31%E -4.70%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.99%EV -12.89%E -4.30%K -6.44%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-09 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -10.02%E -4.18%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -12.97%E -4.99%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -7.08%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-09 18:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.07%EV -11.90%E -5.06%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 33.90%EV -13.98%E -5.44%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.04%EV -12.89%E -4.30%K -6.44%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-09 18:10
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.20%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.74%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-08-09 18:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.20%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.74%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-08-09 18:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.20%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.74%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-08-09 18:10
Matchbook◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.20%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.74%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-08-09 18:10
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.64%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.67%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%1.0%2026-08-09 17:55
Smarkets◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.46%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.71%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83%1.6%2026-08-09 18:10