Language:English
Górnik Zabrze v Lech Poznań
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Górnik Zabrze (Local)
Prediction 32.96%3.03fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.369%
Kelly -0.554%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.10%32.80%33.04%34.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.792.803.0038.17%35.83%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lech Poznań (Visit)
Prediction 40.48%2.47fair odd
EV -4.06%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -2.96%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.67%40.67%40.35%42.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.232.252.3747.62%44.76%44.44%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.55%3.77fair odd
EV -0.425%
Edge -0.113%
Kelly -0.155%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.10%26.53%26.61%27.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.483.503.7531.25%28.71%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Górnik Zabrze (Local): 32.96%; Lech Poznań (Visit): 40.48%; Draw: 26.55%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.75, with an expected value of -0.425%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -1.11%E -0.369%K -0.554%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.72%E -2.86%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-12 15:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -2.76%E -0.934%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -12.96%E -6.03%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-12 15:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.06%EV -4.07%E -1.40%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.59%EV -4.06%E -1.71%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.35%EV -3.08%E -0.844%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-12 15:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -4.40%E -1.52%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.02%EV -9.72%E -4.36%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -3.08%E -0.844%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-12 15:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -4.40%E -1.52%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.40%EV -10.94%E -4.97%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -11.05%E -3.30%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-12 15:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.69%EV -5.06%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -9.72%E -4.36%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -0.425%E -0.113%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 15:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.69%EV -5.06%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -9.72%E -4.36%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -0.425%E -0.113%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 15:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.69%EV -5.06%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -9.72%E -4.36%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -0.425%E -0.113%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 15:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.69%EV -5.06%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -9.72%E -4.36%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -0.425%E -0.113%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 15:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.69%EV -5.06%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -9.72%E -4.36%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -0.425%E -0.113%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 15:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.69%EV -5.06%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -9.72%E -4.36%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -0.425%E -0.113%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 15:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.69%EV -5.06%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -9.72%E -4.36%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -0.425%E -0.113%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 15:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -5.06%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -10.94%E -4.97%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -12.37%E -3.75%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-12 15:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -5.06%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -10.94%E -4.97%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -12.37%E -3.75%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-12 15:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.34%EV -6.05%E -2.12%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.32%EV -6.89%E -3.00%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -0.425%E -0.113%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -6.05%E -2.12%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.22%EV -4.87%E -2.07%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.62%EV -5.74%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-12 15:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.71%EV -6.05%E -2.12%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.19%EV -6.08%E -2.62%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.10%EV -8.66%E -2.52%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-12 15:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -6.05%E -2.12%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.72%E -2.86%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-12 15:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.06%EV -6.38%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.12%EV -5.27%E -2.25%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-12 15:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.06%EV -6.38%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.12%EV -5.27%E -2.25%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-12 15:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.06%EV -6.38%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.12%EV -5.27%E -2.25%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-12 15:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 32.75%EV -6.71%E -2.37%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.30%EV -6.89%E -3.00%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 26.95%EV -8.66%E -2.52%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-12 15:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -4.87%E -2.07%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.56%EV -7.70%E -3.38%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-12 15:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.35%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -12.96%E -6.03%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -5.74%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-12 15:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -12.37%E -3.75%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-12 15:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -12.37%E -3.75%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-12 15:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -12.37%E -3.75%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-12 15:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -10.94%E -4.97%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -15.03%E -4.70%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-12 15:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -6.89%E -3.00%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-09 03:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.89%E -3.00%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.72%E -2.86%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-09 02:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.89%E -3.00%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.72%E -2.86%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-09 02:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.89%E -3.00%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.72%E -2.86%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-12 14:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-12 15:09 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-12 15:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-12 15:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -11.05%E -3.30%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-12 15:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 41.85%EV -13.37%E -6.25%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.59%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-12 15:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -12.96%E -6.03%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -9.72%E -2.86%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 32.31%EV -10.34%E -3.80%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 41.46%EV -14.18%E -6.69%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.23%EV -11.05%E -3.30%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-12 14:48 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -11.00%E -4.07%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -11.00%E -4.07%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.23%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -8.39%E -2.43%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -11.00%E -4.07%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -14.99%E -7.14%K -13.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-12 15:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -11.00%E -4.07%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -14.99%E -7.14%K -13.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-12 15:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -11.00%E -4.07%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -14.99%E -7.14%K -13.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-12 15:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -11.00%E -4.07%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -14.99%E -7.14%K -13.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-12 15:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.64%EV -12.64%E -4.77%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.52%EV -10.94%E -4.97%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.84%EV -8.39%E -2.43%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-12 14:21 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.51%EV -12.64%E -4.77%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -10.94%E -4.97%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.12%EV -9.72%E -2.86%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 32.93%EV -12.64%E -4.77%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 40.22%EV -12.15%E -5.60%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.85%EV -13.70%E -4.22%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-09-12 15:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -13.63%E -5.20%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -9.72%E -2.86%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-09 03:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -13.63%E -5.20%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -9.72%E -2.86%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-09 03:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 32.88%EV -13.63%E -5.20%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.02%EV -14.99%E -7.14%K -13.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.10%EV -12.37%E -3.75%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 16.1% | 2026-09-12 15:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.57% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50% | 1.0% | 2026-09-12 15:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.57% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50% | 1.0% | 2026-09-12 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.77% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41% | 1.4% | 2026-09-12 15:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.77% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41% | 1.4% | 2026-09-12 15:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.18% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46% | 2.0% | 2026-09-12 15:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.60% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.81% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.59% | 2.1% | 2026-09-12 15:25 |