Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Górnik Zabrze v Lech Poznań

Início: 2026-09-12 15:30 UTC

Final: Górnik Zabrze 2–1 Lech Poznań

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

53 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Górnik Zabrze (Local)

Previsão 32.96%3.03odd justa
EV -1.11%
Vantagem -0.369%
Kelly -0.554%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
31.10%32.80%33.04%34.07%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.622.792.803.0038.17%35.83%35.71%33.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Lech Poznań (Visitante)

Previsão 40.48%2.47odd justa
EV -4.06%
Vantagem -1.71%
Kelly -2.96%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.37

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
39.67%40.67%40.35%42.68%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.102.232.252.3747.62%44.76%44.44%42.19%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.55%3.77odd justa
EV -0.425%
Vantagem -0.113%
Kelly -0.155%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.10%26.53%26.61%27.80%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.203.483.503.7531.25%28.71%28.57%26.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Górnik Zabrze (Local): 32.96%; Lech Poznań (Visitante): 40.48%; Empate: 26.55%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.77. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.75, com valor esperado de -0.425%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (53 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -1.11%E -0.369%K -0.554%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.72%E -2.86%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 15:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -2.76%E -0.934%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -12.96%E -6.03%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-12 15:15
Pinnacle🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 33.06%EV -4.07%E -1.40%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.59%EV -4.06%E -1.71%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.35%EV -3.08%E -0.844%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-12 15:20
Unibet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -4.40%E -1.52%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.02%EV -9.72%E -4.36%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -3.08%E -0.844%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-12 15:10
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -4.40%E -1.52%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.40%EV -10.94%E -4.97%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -11.05%E -3.30%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-12 15:15
Casumo🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.69%EV -5.06%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -9.72%E -4.36%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -0.425%E -0.113%K -0.155%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 15:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.69%EV -5.06%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -9.72%E -4.36%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -0.425%E -0.113%K -0.155%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 15:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.69%EV -5.06%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -9.72%E -4.36%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -0.425%E -0.113%K -0.155%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 15:05
Grosvenor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.69%EV -5.06%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -9.72%E -4.36%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -0.425%E -0.113%K -0.155%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 15:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.69%EV -5.06%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -9.72%E -4.36%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -0.425%E -0.113%K -0.155%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 15:00
betPARX🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.69%EV -5.06%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -9.72%E -4.36%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -0.425%E -0.113%K -0.155%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 15:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.69%EV -5.06%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -9.72%E -4.36%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -0.425%E -0.113%K -0.155%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 15:00
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -5.06%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -10.94%E -4.97%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -12.37%E -3.75%K -5.38%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 15:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -5.06%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -10.94%E -4.97%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -12.37%E -3.75%K -5.38%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 15:15
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.34%EV -6.05%E -2.12%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.32%EV -6.89%E -3.00%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -0.425%E -0.113%K -0.155%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 14:20
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -6.05%E -2.12%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.22%EV -4.87%E -2.07%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.62%EV -5.74%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-12 15:05
1xBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.71%EV -6.05%E -2.12%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.19%EV -6.08%E -2.62%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.10%EV -8.66%E -2.52%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 15:25
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -6.05%E -2.12%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.72%E -2.86%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-12 15:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.06%EV -6.38%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.12%EV -5.27%E -2.25%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 15:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.06%EV -6.38%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.12%EV -5.27%E -2.25%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 15:25
BetUS🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.06%EV -6.38%E -2.25%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.12%EV -5.27%E -2.25%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 15:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 32.75%EV -6.71%E -2.37%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.30%EV -6.89%E -3.00%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.95%EV -8.66%E -2.52%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-12 15:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -4.87%E -2.07%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 15:35
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.56%EV -7.70%E -3.38%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 15:24
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.35%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -12.96%E -6.03%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -5.74%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-12 15:00
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -12.37%E -3.75%K -5.38%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 15:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -12.37%E -3.75%K -5.38%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 15:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -12.37%E -3.75%K -5.38%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 15:10
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -10.94%E -4.97%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -15.03%E -4.70%K -6.83%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-12 15:10
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -6.89%E -3.00%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 03:55
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.89%E -3.00%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.72%E -2.86%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 02:55
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.89%E -3.00%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.72%E -2.86%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 02:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.89%E -3.00%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.72%E -2.86%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:20
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 14:40
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 15:09
betano_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 15:09
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 15:10
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -11.05%E -3.30%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 15:15
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.85%EV -13.37%E -6.25%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.59%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 15:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -12.96%E -6.03%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -9.72%E -2.86%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 32.31%EV -10.34%E -3.80%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.46%EV -14.18%E -6.69%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.23%EV -11.05%E -3.30%K -4.70%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-12 14:48
Betr (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -11.00%E -4.07%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -11.00%E -4.07%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.23%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -8.39%E -2.43%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 14:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -11.00%E -4.07%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -14.99%E -7.14%K -13.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-12 15:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -11.00%E -4.07%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -14.99%E -7.14%K -13.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-12 15:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -11.00%E -4.07%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -14.99%E -7.14%K -13.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-12 15:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -11.00%E -4.07%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -14.99%E -7.14%K -13.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -7.06%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-12 15:05
Bet Right🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.64%EV -12.64%E -4.77%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.52%EV -10.94%E -4.97%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.84%EV -8.39%E -2.43%K -3.42%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-12 14:21
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.51%EV -12.64%E -4.77%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -10.94%E -4.97%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.12%EV -9.72%E -2.86%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-12 14:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.93%EV -12.64%E -4.77%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.22%EV -12.15%E -5.60%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.85%EV -13.70%E -4.22%K -6.09%G +0.000%14.6%2026-09-12 15:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -13.63%E -5.20%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -9.72%E -2.86%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-09 03:55
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -13.63%E -5.20%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -9.72%E -2.86%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-09 03:55
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 32.88%EV -13.63%E -5.20%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.02%EV -14.99%E -7.14%K -13.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.10%EV -12.37%E -3.75%K -5.38%G +0.000%16.1%2026-09-12 15:20
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50%1.0%2026-09-12 15:25
Matchbook◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50%1.0%2026-09-12 15:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.77%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41%1.4%2026-09-12 15:26
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.77%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41%1.4%2026-09-12 15:25
Kalshi◎3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.18%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46%2.0%2026-09-12 15:25
Smarkets◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.60%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.81%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.59%2.1%2026-09-12 15:25