La escuela de los momios

Górnik Zabrze v Korona Kielce

Inicio: 2026-04-18 15:30 UTC

Final: Górnik Zabrze 1–0 Korona Kielce

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Górnik Zabrze (Local)

Predicción 49.85%2.01momio equitativo
EV -3.79%
Ventaja -1.96%
Kelly -4.07%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.93

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.55%49.92%49.64%51.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.721.851.851.9358.14%53.94%54.05%51.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Korona Kielce (Visitante)

Predicción 23.50%4.26momio equitativo
EV +2.45%
Ventaja +0.563%
Kelly +0.730%
Crecimiento +0.018%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.36

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.79%23.40%23.77%25.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.403.873.854.3629.41%25.82%25.97%22.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.65%3.75momio equitativo
EV -1.66%
Ventaja -0.450%
Kelly -0.618%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.69

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.98%26.67%26.58%28.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.393.403.6933.33%29.50%29.41%27.10%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.85I 54.05%NM 51.93%EV -7.77%E -4.20%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.03%EV +2.45%E +0.563%K +0.730%G +0.018%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.04%EV -1.66%E -0.450%K -0.618%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-18 15:10
BetOnline.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -7.77%E -4.20%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +1.04%E +0.243%K +0.316%G +0.003%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-18 15:14
LowVig.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -7.77%E -4.20%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV +1.04%E +0.243%K +0.316%G +0.003%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-18 15:15
Coolbet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.77%EV -6.28%E -3.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%EV -1.31%E -0.311%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -4.06%E -1.13%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-18 15:10
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 50.24%EV -6.78%E -3.62%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -3.66%E -0.892%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -6.72%E -1.92%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-18 15:19
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 50.78%EV -8.77%E -4.79%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -3.66%E -0.892%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.72%E -1.92%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-18 15:08
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.20%EV -10.27%E -5.70%K -12.83%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -3.66%E -0.892%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.72%E -1.92%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-18 15:10
Bovada1.84I 54.35%NM 50.05%EV -8.27%E -4.50%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.46%EV -3.66%E -0.892%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -10.72%E -3.20%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-18 15:11
BetUS1.84I 54.35%NM 50.05%EV -8.27%E -4.50%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.46%EV -3.66%E -0.892%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -10.72%E -3.20%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-18 15:15
Marathon Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.06%EV -7.77%E -4.20%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.87%EV -4.83%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.08%EV -8.86%E -2.59%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-18 15:20
1xBet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.49%EV -4.29%E -2.23%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.52%EV -5.07%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.99%EV -6.19%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-18 15:20
betfred_uk1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -8.77%E -4.79%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -6.01%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-18 15:08
SportsBet1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -10.27%E -5.70%K -12.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -6.01%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-18 15:10
Unibet1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -3.79%E -1.96%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -8.36%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 15:14
Unibet (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -3.79%E -1.96%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -8.36%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 15:05
Unibet (NL)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -3.79%E -1.96%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -8.36%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 15:05
ATG (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -3.79%E -1.96%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -8.36%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 15:09
BetMGM1.87I 53.48%NM 49.66%EV -6.78%E -3.62%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -8.36%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -6.72%E -1.92%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-13 15:32
NordicBet1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -6.28%E -3.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -8.36%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.88%EV -8.06%E -2.34%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 15:10
Betsson1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -6.28%E -3.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -8.36%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.88%EV -8.06%E -2.34%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-18 15:10
Bet Right1.84I 54.35%NM 49.87%EV -8.27%E -4.50%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -8.36%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -8.06%E -2.34%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 15:10
BetRivers1.91I 52.36%NM 48.59%EV -4.78%E -2.50%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -9.53%E -2.48%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 15:05
Svenska Spel1.91I 52.36%NM 48.59%EV -4.78%E -2.50%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -9.53%E -2.48%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 15:10
Casumo1.91I 52.36%NM 48.59%EV -4.78%E -2.50%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -9.53%E -2.48%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 15:05
Grosvenor1.91I 52.36%NM 48.59%EV -4.78%E -2.50%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -9.53%E -2.48%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 15:04
betPARX1.91I 52.36%NM 48.59%EV -4.78%E -2.50%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -9.53%E -2.48%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 15:10
Codere (IT)1.86I 53.76%NM 49.45%EV -7.28%E -3.91%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.89%EV -9.53%E -2.48%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -8.06%E -2.34%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 15:10
TABtouch1.88I 53.19%NM 48.79%EV -6.28%E -3.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -9.53%E -2.48%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.38%EV -10.72%E -3.20%K -4.56%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 15:05
Betway1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -6.28%E -3.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -10.71%E -2.82%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -6.72%E -1.92%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-18 15:15
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -4.78%E -2.50%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -10.71%E -2.82%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-18 04:25
Bet Victor1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -7.77%E -4.20%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.71%E -2.82%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 15:18
LiveScore Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 48.44%EV -6.28%E -3.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -10.71%E -2.82%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -12.05%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 15:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.44%EV -6.28%E -3.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -10.71%E -2.82%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -12.05%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 15:05
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 49.65%EV -9.27%E -5.09%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -10.71%E -2.82%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-18 15:10
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 49.92%EV -10.27%E -5.70%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -10.71%E -2.82%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-18 15:10
PlayUp1.87I 53.48%NM 48.42%EV -6.78%E -3.62%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -11.88%E -3.17%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -12.05%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-18 15:15
Virgin Bet1.86I 53.76%NM 48.55%EV -7.28%E -3.91%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -11.88%E -3.17%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -12.05%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-18 15:05
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 49.37%EV -10.27%E -5.70%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -11.88%E -3.17%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -12.05%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-18 15:10
BoyleSports1.75I 57.14%NM 50.47%EV -12.76%E -7.29%K -17.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.55%EV -11.88%E -3.17%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-17 15:35
Winamax (DE)1.84I 54.35%NM 49.43%EV -8.27%E -4.50%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -13.06%E -3.53%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -6.72%E -1.92%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-18 15:10
LeoVegas1.83I 54.64%NM 48.60%EV -8.77%E -4.79%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.04%EV -13.06%E -3.53%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.36%EV -13.39%E -4.12%K -5.95%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-18 15:05
Unibet (FR)1.79I 55.87%NM 49.55%EV -10.77%E -6.01%K -13.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -13.06%E -3.53%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.48%EV -10.72%E -3.20%K -4.56%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-18 15:10
Betclic (FR)1.79I 55.87%NM 49.47%EV -10.77%E -6.01%K -13.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.93%EV -13.06%E -3.53%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.59%EV -11.26%E -3.38%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-18 15:11
NetBet (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 50.15%EV -14.26%E -8.29%K -19.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.31%EV -13.06%E -3.53%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.54%EV -13.39%E -4.12%K -5.95%G +0.000%15.9%2026-04-18 15:20
PMU (FR)1.81I 55.25%NM 48.51%EV -9.77%E -5.40%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.05%EV -14.23%E -3.90%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.44%EV -14.72%E -4.60%K -6.69%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-18 15:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -8.77%E -4.79%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -15.41%E -4.28%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -12.05%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-13 15:35
Coral1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -8.77%E -4.79%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -15.41%E -4.28%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -12.05%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-13 15:35
Winamax (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 49.19%EV -11.26%E -6.33%K -14.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.67%EV -16.58%E -4.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.14%EV -10.72%E -3.20%K -4.56%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-18 15:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 46.55%EV -8.77%E -4.79%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.05%EV -20.10%E -5.91%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.40%EV -20.05%E -6.68%K -10.02%G +0.000%17.4%2026-04-18 15:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 50.88%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.44%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.68%1.3%2026-04-18 15:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.94I 51.55%NM 50.88%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.44%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.68%1.3%2026-04-18 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.94I 51.55%NM 50.88%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.44%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.68%1.3%2026-04-18 15:20
Matchbook1.94I 51.55%NM 50.88%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.44%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.68%1.3%2026-04-18 15:20
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.01%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.52%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-04-18 15:15
Smarkets1.94I 51.55%NM 50.44%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.76%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.81%2.2%2026-04-18 15:15