Language:English
Arka Gdynia v Lechia Gdańsk
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Arka Gdynia (Local)
Prediction 28.15%3.55fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -0.502%
Kelly -0.704%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.49
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.16%28.16%28.24%29.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.213.253.4933.33%31.11%30.77%28.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lechia Gdańsk (Visit)
Prediction 43.14%2.32fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -3.09%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.23
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.85%43.10%43.17%44.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.142.152.2352.63%46.72%46.51%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.71%3.48fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -0.699%
Kelly -0.990%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.94%28.73%28.59%29.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.203.203.4034.48%31.25%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arka Gdynia (Local): 28.15%; Lechia Gdańsk (Visit): 43.14%; Draw: 28.71%. For Arka Gdynia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.55. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.49, with an expected value of -1.75%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.57%EV -1.75%E -0.502%K -0.704%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.13%EV -5.96%E -2.74%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.30%EV -2.38%E -0.699%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-02-27 19:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-27 19:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.63%EV -6.39%E -2.95%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.52%EV -4.67%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-27 19:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.63%EV -6.39%E -2.95%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.52%EV -4.67%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-27 19:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -7.26%E -3.38%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-27 19:18 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -4.29%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-27 19:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.39%EV -5.69%E -1.70%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.23%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.39%EV -3.81%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-27 19:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -5.69%E -1.70%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.53%EV -7.69%E -3.59%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-27 19:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -5.69%E -1.70%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.99%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-02-27 19:16 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.75%EV -5.98%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -8.55%E -4.03%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.52%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-27 19:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-27 17:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-27 19:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-27 19:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-02-27 19:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-02-27 19:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.99%E -3.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-27 19:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.99%E -3.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-27 19:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.99%E -3.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-27 19:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -8.51%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.05%EV -7.26%E -3.38%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-27 19:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -8.51%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.32%EV -5.96%E -2.74%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -9.56%E -3.03%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-27 17:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -8.51%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.32%EV -5.96%E -2.74%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -9.56%E -3.03%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-27 17:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -8.51%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.55%EV -6.83%E -3.16%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -9.56%E -3.03%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-02-27 17:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -8.51%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.66%EV -7.26%E -3.38%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -9.56%E -3.03%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-02-27 18:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -8.51%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-02-27 19:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -8.51%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-02-27 19:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.51%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -10.28%E -4.94%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -9.56%E -3.03%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-02-27 19:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.92%E -3.10%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -7.26%E -3.38%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.99%E -3.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-02-27 18:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -11.32%E -3.60%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.81%E -1.71%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-27 18:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -11.32%E -3.60%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.81%E -1.71%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-27 18:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -11.32%E -3.60%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.81%E -1.71%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-27 18:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -11.32%E -3.60%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.81%E -1.71%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-27 18:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -11.32%E -3.60%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.81%E -1.71%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-27 18:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -11.32%E -3.60%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.81%E -1.71%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-27 18:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -11.32%E -3.60%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.81%E -1.71%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-27 18:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -11.32%E -3.60%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.81%E -1.71%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-27 18:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -11.32%E -3.60%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -3.81%E -1.71%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-27 18:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -11.32%E -3.60%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-02-27 17:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -12.73%E -4.11%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -5.96%E -2.74%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-02-27 18:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.73%E -4.11%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -10.99%E -3.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-02-27 18:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.73%E -4.11%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -10.99%E -3.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-02-27 18:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.73%E -4.11%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -10.99%E -3.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-02-27 19:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.73%E -4.11%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -10.99%E -3.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-02-27 18:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -12.73%E -4.11%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.86%EV -11.57%E -5.64%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.80%EV -12.43%E -4.07%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-02-27 19:08 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -12.73%E -4.11%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.86%EV -11.57%E -5.64%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.80%EV -12.43%E -4.07%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-02-27 19:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.77%EV -14.14%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.85%EV -6.39%E -2.95%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-02-27 18:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.77%EV -14.14%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.85%EV -6.39%E -2.95%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-02-27 18:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.47%EV -14.14%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.00%EV -7.69%E -3.59%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.53%EV -9.56%E -3.03%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-02-27 18:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.80%EV -14.14%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.86%EV -11.57%E -5.64%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -10.99%E -3.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-02-27 17:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.17%EV -14.14%E -4.64%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 43.18%EV -14.16%E -7.11%K -14.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.64%EV -13.86%E -4.62%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-02-27 19:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -15.55%E -5.18%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.02%EV -8.55%E -4.03%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.28%EV -9.56%E -3.03%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-02-27 18:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 27.67%EV -15.55%E -5.18%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 43.70%EV -18.04%E -9.50%K -20.05%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 28.63%EV -16.73%E -5.77%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 20.4% | 2026-02-27 19:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.78% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58% | 1.4% | 2026-02-27 19:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.78% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58% | 1.4% | 2026-02-27 19:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.78% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58% | 1.4% | 2026-02-27 19:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.78% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58% | 1.4% | 2026-02-27 19:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.00% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.99% | 1.5% | 2026-02-27 19:19 |