Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sarpsborg FK v HamKam

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 15:00 UTC

Final: Sarpsborg FK 1–0 HamKam

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sarpsborg FK (Local)

Prediction 56.54%1.77fair odd
EV -4.45%
Edge -2.63%
Kelly -6.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.90%56.62%56.40%59.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.641.651.6964.52%61.11%60.61%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HamKam (Visit)

Prediction 20.53%4.87fair odd
EV +6.34%
Edge +1.22%
Kelly +1.52%
Growth +0.096%

assuming max odds 5.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.74%20.51%20.57%21.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.464.505.1825.00%22.41%22.22%19.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.93%4.36fair odd
EV +0.904%
Edge +0.206%
Kelly +0.266%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.83%22.86%23.03%24.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.983.954.4026.67%25.14%25.32%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sarpsborg FK (Local): 56.54%; HamKam (Visit): 20.53%; Draw: 22.93%. For HamKam (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.87. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.18, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%EV -7.28%E -4.44%K -11.37%G +0.000%5.18I 19.31%NM 18.74%EV +6.34%E +1.22%K +1.52%G +0.096%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%EV +0.904%E +0.206%K +0.266%G +0.002%3.0%2026-07-26 11:01
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.14%EV -4.45%E -2.63%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.81I 20.79%NM 20.08%EV -1.25%E -0.261%K -0.329%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.78%EV -2.76%E -0.652%K -0.853%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-26 14:56
GTbets🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.01%EV -5.58%E -3.34%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.00%EV -2.28%E -0.479%K -0.607%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.99%EV -5.06%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-26 13:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.89%EV -7.28%E -4.44%K -11.37%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.07%EV -4.54%E -0.976%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -7.12%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 14:55
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.34%EV -5.02%E -2.99%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -5.57%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-26 14:40
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.34%EV -5.02%E -2.99%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -5.57%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-26 14:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.49%EV -5.58%E -3.34%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -5.57%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 14:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.49%EV -5.58%E -3.34%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -5.57%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 14:55
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.49%EV -5.58%E -3.34%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -5.57%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 14:55
BetAnything🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.49%EV -5.58%E -3.34%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -5.57%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 14:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.48%EV -5.57%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -3.68%E -0.877%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 14:16
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.23%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -5.57%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-26 14:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.54%EV -9.54%E -5.96%K -15.90%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -5.57%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 13:50
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.25%EV -4.45%E -2.63%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 20.85%EV -6.39%E -1.40%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.91%EV -4.83%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-26 14:55
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -5.58%E -3.34%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 14:54
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -5.58%E -3.34%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 14:55
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.37%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.96%EV -7.12%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 14:56
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-26 14:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-26 13:51
Unibet (NL)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:25
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:25
Grosvenor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:25
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:21
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:20
Casumo🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:25
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:25
SportsBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.51%EV -7.84%E -4.81%K -12.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 14:40
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.28%E -4.44%K -11.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.56%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-26 14:20
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-26 13:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.33%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.28%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -10.56%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-26 14:21
LiveScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.33%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.28%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -10.56%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-26 14:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.30%EV -11.24%E -7.16%K -19.71%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.21%EV -8.65%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.49%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-26 14:34
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -5.58%E -3.34%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -9.67%E -2.20%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -12.86%E -3.38%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 14:55
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.93%EV -7.28%E -4.44%K -11.37%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85%EV -9.67%E -2.20%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.22%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-26 14:54
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.56%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.82%EV -9.67%E -2.20%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.62%EV -7.12%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-26 14:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.23%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -9.67%E -2.20%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.06%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 14:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.07%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -9.67%E -2.20%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.29%EV -10.56%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 14:45
Everygame🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.70%EV -9.54%E -5.96%K -15.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.62%EV -9.67%E -2.20%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 13:15
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.73%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -9.67%E -2.20%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -12.86%E -3.38%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-26 14:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.01%EV -10.67%E -6.75%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.47%EV -9.67%E -2.20%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-26 14:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.35%EV -11.80%E -7.56%K -21.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.21%EV -10.70%E -2.46%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -14.00%E -3.73%K -5.09%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-26 14:25
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.43%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.12%EV -11.11%E -2.57%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -10.56%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 14:53
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.43%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.12%EV -11.11%E -2.57%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -10.56%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 14:53
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.44%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.26%EV -11.72%E -2.73%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-26 14:16
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -9.54%E -5.96%K -15.90%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.01%EV -12.75%E -3.00%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.19%EV -11.71%E -3.04%K -4.11%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-26 14:10
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.90%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -13.78%E -3.28%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.53%EV -11.71%E -3.04%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-26 14:55
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.19%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -13.78%E -3.28%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -12.86%E -3.38%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-26 14:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.01%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -13.78%E -3.28%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -14.00%E -3.73%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-26 14:55
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.01%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -13.78%E -3.28%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -14.00%E -3.73%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-26 14:56
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.17%EV -8.97%E -5.57%K -14.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -13.78%E -3.28%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -14.00%E -3.73%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-26 14:55
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.17%EV -8.97%E -5.57%K -14.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -13.78%E -3.28%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -14.00%E -3.73%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-26 14:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.85%EV -10.67%E -6.75%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.52%EV -15.83%E -3.86%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.63%EV -10.56%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-26 14:15
BoyleSports🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 56.34%EV -12.37%E -7.98%K -22.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.83%EV -17.88%E -4.47%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.83%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-26 13:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.29%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59%0.6%2026-07-26 14:41
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.29%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59%0.6%2026-07-26 14:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.29%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59%0.6%2026-07-26 14:46
Smarkets1.74I 57.47%NM 56.88%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.62%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.50%1.0%2026-07-26 14:50
Matchbook1.73I 57.80%NM 57.03%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.42%1.4%2026-07-26 14:56