Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Sarpsborg FK v HamKam

Inicio: 2026-07-26 15:00 UTC

Final: Sarpsborg FK 1–0 HamKam

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Sarpsborg FK (Local)

Predicción 56.54%1.77momio equitativo
EV -4.45%
Ventaja -2.63%
Kelly -6.45%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.69

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.90%56.62%56.40%59.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.551.641.651.6964.52%61.11%60.61%59.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

HamKam (Visitante)

Predicción 20.53%4.87momio equitativo
EV +6.34%
Ventaja +1.22%
Kelly +1.52%
Crecimiento +0.096%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.18

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.74%20.51%20.57%21.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.464.505.1825.00%22.41%22.22%19.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 22.93%4.36momio equitativo
EV +0.904%
Ventaja +0.206%
Kelly +0.266%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.83%22.86%23.03%24.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.753.983.954.4026.67%25.14%25.32%22.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Sarpsborg FK (Local): 56.54%; HamKam (Visitante): 20.53%; Empate: 22.93%. Para HamKam (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.87. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.18, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +6.34%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%EV -7.28%E -4.44%K -11.37%G +0.000%5.18I 19.31%NM 18.74%EV +6.34%E +1.22%K +1.52%G +0.096%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%EV +0.904%E +0.206%K +0.266%G +0.002%3.0%2026-07-26 11:01
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.14%EV -4.45%E -2.63%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.81I 20.79%NM 20.08%EV -1.25%E -0.261%K -0.329%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.78%EV -2.76%E -0.652%K -0.853%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-26 14:56
GTbets🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.01%EV -5.58%E -3.34%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.00%EV -2.28%E -0.479%K -0.607%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.99%EV -5.06%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-26 13:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.89%EV -7.28%E -4.44%K -11.37%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.07%EV -4.54%E -0.976%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -7.12%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 14:55
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.34%EV -5.02%E -2.99%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -5.57%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-26 14:40
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.34%EV -5.02%E -2.99%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -5.57%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-26 14:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.49%EV -5.58%E -3.34%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -5.57%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 14:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.49%EV -5.58%E -3.34%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -5.57%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 14:55
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.49%EV -5.58%E -3.34%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -5.57%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 14:55
BetAnything🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.49%EV -5.58%E -3.34%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -5.57%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 14:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.48%EV -5.57%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -3.68%E -0.877%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 14:16
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.23%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -5.57%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-26 14:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.54%EV -9.54%E -5.96%K -15.90%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -5.57%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 13:50
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.25%EV -4.45%E -2.63%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 20.85%EV -6.39%E -1.40%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.91%EV -4.83%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-26 14:55
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -5.58%E -3.34%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 14:54
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -5.58%E -3.34%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 14:55
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.37%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.96%EV -7.12%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 14:56
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-26 14:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-26 13:51
Unibet (NL)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:25
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:25
Grosvenor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:25
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:21
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:20
Casumo🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:25
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.04%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-26 14:25
SportsBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.51%EV -7.84%E -4.81%K -12.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 14:40
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -7.28%E -4.44%K -11.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.56%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-26 14:20
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-26 13:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.33%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.28%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -10.56%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-26 14:21
LiveScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.33%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.28%EV -7.62%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -10.56%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-26 14:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.30%EV -11.24%E -7.16%K -19.71%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.21%EV -8.65%E -1.94%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.49%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-26 14:34
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -5.58%E -3.34%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -9.67%E -2.20%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -12.86%E -3.38%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 14:55
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.93%EV -7.28%E -4.44%K -11.37%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85%EV -9.67%E -2.20%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.22%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-26 14:54
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.56%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.82%EV -9.67%E -2.20%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.62%EV -7.12%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-26 14:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.23%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -9.67%E -2.20%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.06%EV -9.42%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 14:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.07%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -9.67%E -2.20%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.29%EV -10.56%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 14:45
Everygame🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.70%EV -9.54%E -5.96%K -15.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.62%EV -9.67%E -2.20%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 13:15
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.73%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -9.67%E -2.20%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -12.86%E -3.38%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-26 14:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.01%EV -10.67%E -6.75%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.47%EV -9.67%E -2.20%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-26 14:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.35%EV -11.80%E -7.56%K -21.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.21%EV -10.70%E -2.46%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -14.00%E -3.73%K -5.09%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-26 14:25
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.43%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.12%EV -11.11%E -2.57%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -10.56%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 14:53
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.43%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.12%EV -11.11%E -2.57%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -10.56%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 14:53
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.44%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.26%EV -11.72%E -2.73%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -5.98%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-26 14:16
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -9.54%E -5.96%K -15.90%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.01%EV -12.75%E -3.00%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.19%EV -11.71%E -3.04%K -4.11%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-26 14:10
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.90%EV -6.71%E -4.07%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -13.78%E -3.28%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.53%EV -11.71%E -3.04%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-26 14:55
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.19%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -13.78%E -3.28%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -12.86%E -3.38%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-26 14:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.01%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -13.78%E -3.28%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -14.00%E -3.73%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-26 14:55
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.01%EV -8.41%E -5.19%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -13.78%E -3.28%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -14.00%E -3.73%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-26 14:56
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.17%EV -8.97%E -5.57%K -14.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -13.78%E -3.28%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -14.00%E -3.73%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-26 14:55
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.17%EV -8.97%E -5.57%K -14.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -13.78%E -3.28%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -14.00%E -3.73%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-26 14:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.85%EV -10.67%E -6.75%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.52%EV -15.83%E -3.86%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.63%EV -10.56%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-26 14:15
BoyleSports🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 56.34%EV -12.37%E -7.98%K -22.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.83%EV -17.88%E -4.47%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.83%EV -8.27%E -2.07%K -2.76%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-26 13:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.29%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59%0.6%2026-07-26 14:41
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.29%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59%0.6%2026-07-26 14:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.29%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59%0.6%2026-07-26 14:46
Smarkets1.74I 57.47%NM 56.88%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.62%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.50%1.0%2026-07-26 14:50
Matchbook1.73I 57.80%NM 57.03%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.42%1.4%2026-07-26 14:56