Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.98
assuming max odds 3.85
assuming max odds 3.81
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sarpsborg FK (Local): 48.73%; Fredrikstad FK (Visit): 25.76%; Draw: 25.51%. For Fredrikstad FK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.88. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.85, with an expected value of -0.833%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.78%EV -3.51%E -1.77%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -8.56%E -2.41%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-09 11:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.78%EV -3.51%E -1.77%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -8.56%E -2.41%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-09 11:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.26%EV -4.00%E -2.03%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -0.833%E -0.216%K -0.292%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -3.07%E -0.807%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-09 11:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.26%EV -4.48%E -2.29%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.41%EV -2.12%E -0.558%K -0.758%G +0.000% | 3.81I 26.25%NM 25.34%EV -2.81%E -0.738%K -1.000%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-09 11:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.92%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.51%EV -3.67%E -0.980%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.57%EV -4.85%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 11:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -4.70%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 11:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -5.98%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -6.89%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 11:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -5.98%E -1.64%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -6.89%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 11:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.72%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-09 11:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -6.43%E -3.35%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -8.56%E -2.41%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -6.43%E -3.35%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -8.56%E -2.41%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -6.43%E -3.35%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -8.56%E -2.41%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -6.43%E -3.35%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -8.56%E -2.41%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -6.43%E -3.35%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -8.56%E -2.41%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -6.43%E -3.35%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -8.56%E -2.41%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -6.43%E -3.35%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -8.56%E -2.41%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -6.43%E -3.35%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -8.56%E -2.41%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -6.43%E -3.35%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -8.56%E -2.41%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 11:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -6.43%E -3.35%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -8.56%E -2.41%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -4.70%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -3.07%E -0.807%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-09 10:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.90%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 25.52%EV -5.73%E -1.56%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -6.89%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 11:52 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.70%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -8.17%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-09 11:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -8.17%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -10.72%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.72%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-09 11:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -12.42%E -3.65%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -10.72%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-09 11:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.99%EV -7.41%E -3.90%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-09 09:44 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -7.41%E -3.90%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.17%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-09 09:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -8.38%E -4.46%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -8.56%E -2.41%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV -6.89%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -8.38%E -4.46%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -9.44%E -2.66%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-09 11:41 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -8.38%E -4.46%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -9.44%E -2.66%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-09 11:44 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -8.38%E -4.46%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -9.44%E -2.66%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-09 11:44 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.39%EV -8.38%E -4.46%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -8.56%E -2.41%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -10.72%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -8.87%E -4.74%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -8.17%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-09 11:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -8.87%E -4.74%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -8.17%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -8.87%E -4.74%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -8.17%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-09 11:27 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.81%EV -9.36%E -5.03%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.32%EV -11.14%E -3.23%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.87%EV -6.89%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -9.84%E -5.32%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -4.70%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -8.17%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.30%EV -9.84%E -5.32%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -4.70%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -10.72%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-09 11:44 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -9.84%E -5.32%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -8.17%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -9.84%E -5.32%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -11.14%E -3.23%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -9.44%E -2.66%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.84%E -5.32%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -13.27%E -3.90%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-09 11:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.84%E -5.32%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -13.27%E -3.90%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-09 11:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.84%E -5.32%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -13.27%E -3.90%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-09 11:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.84%E -5.32%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -13.27%E -3.90%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-09 11:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.60%EV -10.82%E -5.91%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -2.12%E -0.558%K -0.758%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 11:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -10.82%E -5.91%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -7.27%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -10.72%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-09 11:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -10.82%E -5.91%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -9.85%E -2.81%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -13.27%E -3.90%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-09 11:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.47%EV -11.31%E -6.21%K -13.79%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.33%EV -13.71%E -4.09%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.20%EV -10.72%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 48.60%EV -11.79%E -6.52%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.26%EV -13.71%E -4.09%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.14%EV -10.72%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.55%EV -12.28%E -6.82%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.48%EV -15.00%E -4.55%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.97%EV -10.72%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-05-09 11:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 47.39%EV -12.28%E -6.82%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.09%EV -12.42%E -3.65%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.52%EV -20.92%E -6.75%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 17.2% | 2026-05-09 11:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 49.57%EV -13.74%E -7.76%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 25.21%EV -10.36%E -2.98%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 25.21%EV -11.23%E -3.23%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-09 11:33 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 49.50%EV -14.23%E -8.08%K -18.72%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.25%EV -11.14%E -3.23%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.25%EV -11.99%E -3.48%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-05-09 11:34 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.68% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.84% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48% | 0.6% | 2026-05-09 11:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.68% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.84% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48% | 0.6% | 2026-05-09 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.68% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.84% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48% | 0.6% | 2026-05-09 11:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.68% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.84% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48% | 0.6% | 2026-05-09 11:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.49% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.93% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.58% | 1.5% | 2026-05-09 11:54 |